forex trading

Step away from your computer for a couple of days and BAM!

Stocks peaked out on day 21 of their cycle, and the USD bounce just turned into a “USD crater”. Stocks could easily fall much lower over coming weeks so…

I wouldn’t think much of it considering that nearly ever single time stocks take a little break…they have generally popped back up in but – THIS TIME? The intermediate cycles have been so extended, the counts have been very difficult, but with today’s action coupled with the massive “profit taking event” in tech stocks some weeks ago?

Don’t go looking to buy a dip here! DO NOT GO HUNTING FOR A BUYING OPPORTUNITY!

If this is indeed the long-awaited “mini crash / intermediate decline in stocks” it will take weeks, and quite possibly roll over into yet another failed daily cycle pushing things lower for weeks “after that”.

It’s far, far to early to even consider this a buying opportunity, as you should have been looking at these past few months as selling opportunities anyway right?

I’m dumping my crappy “short MUX / summer play on Gold” and otherwise have “zero skin in the game”.

USD falling thru here very surprising so I am 100% out ( perhaps with a tiny profit ) first thing in the a.m.

Sorry….the sun is out, and as stated many many weeks ago……I’ve no time for this now. It’s a waste of my “oh so valuable time”.

       Forex_Kong_Disgusted

I trade, and I trade well.

I have my bias sure ( as I am generally short humanity and long interplanetary travel ) but that’s beside the point. In order to trade well, one needs to put these things aside. I do my best to remain indifferent to market direction but.. even for us pro’s – this is often easier said than done.

If you look back at the bulk of my writing over the past years..you’ll see that I’ve matured. I’m not as angry as I once was “back in the day” when I first came to fully understand the degree to which markets are manipulated / designed. Now I don’t mean “markets are rigged” as….the stock market is only a simple reflection of human activity/sentiment on any given day ( you can’t rig that! ) but more so “the mechanism” through which we participate. The pre and after market activity for example, the stop runs…the central bank interventions, the media spin etc. All generally geared to rip your face off…and grind your bank account to dust.

I’m cynical to say the least. Can you really blame me?

That being said….I love every single minute of it. It’s my passion and I will never stop.

So here we are at an interesting junction where….I myself am presented with a conundrum of sorts, short of the many years experience and the “current knowledge / abilities” to see myself through.

I don’t want to buy dollars. But I’m going to.

The “old Kong” would have found any and every argument under the sun to justify / support the argument for the “continued demise of the American Dollar as the world’s reserve currency” and while this may hold true on much longer time frames – today’s not the day.

Grow people. Learn from your mistakes. Keep an open mind. Trade like a demon.

Kong getting long USD here tomorrow!

             Forex Kong Gets Long

The ViX trade ( long UVXY at 11.80 ) has spiked 14% this morning alone.

Holding short USD trades against a number of other currencies – still seeing trades climb higher as USD continues to “waterfall” ( remember the “suggested waterfall some days ago? ) as 17 days of longs holding positions – wiped out in a single session.

You’ve  “hoped” and you’ve “held” long positions for a full 17 days now…..almost a full month you will never get back.Poof! Wiped in a single session.

I’m back in “celebration mode” here this morning as things have worked out rather well for ol Kong.

So……

How do I time this stuff?

First of all……I check my emotions  at the door, and don’t take an “emotional stand” on whether markets are moving higher or lower. I don’t give a rats ass…and you shouldn’t either. If you are learning to “trade” then you’ve got to stop thinking about “investing”. You continue to deny that anything can go wrong, and you continue to view “the short side” as some kind of demonic evil. Ridiculous.

You don’t think the big banks and Wall St. big shots get short? Please…..pull your head outta the sand. As much as the media coverage may show you “Carnage on Wall St. as Stocks Slide” – these guys where selling you stock all the way up and “gladly” shift the algorithm’s to “short as f&%k” to see you get cleaned out. You can guarantee it.

I can go on and on about my technical indicators ( only one – The Kongdicator ) as well my general view of the world ( as cynical as it is ) but neither of these will really give you much insight.

There is a “creativity” in all of this, and it’s something that is learned over years and years of study and practice. It’s the currency markets that provide the most “actionable information” coupled with as large a “macro view” as you can muster – in order to see past the news. A little confidence doesn’t hurt either but that my friends – comes later.

Cycles also play a role as human beings generally move as a heard. If you can start to distinguish the patterns / repetition – eventually you’ll win. This also takes time but…is certainly not beyond the learning / capabilities of your average Joe.

For fun why don’t you pull up a chart and try to count the number of days between significant “lows or highs” in any given asset and see if you can find any pattern. If you look hard enough you will see these same patterns / repetitions on any time frame…only that they become less and less reliable the more granular you go.

Anything under a 1H chart is noise…and even the 1H needs close attention.

Give it a go and get back to me. I’m not much for “teaching this stuff” as much as I am with “sharing my activity” but…hey – let’s see if you come up with anything.

       Forex_Kong_Human_Form

Did we not see this coming? Indeed.

The US dollar has put in “yet another” devastating over night session in Asia. Down -65 as EUR hits near term / 6 month highs. AUD/JPY has stalled out below 84.40 ( not bad Kong! ) and the world is a wonderful place. Trades are in the green some 3 weeks after moving sideways across the top….the first “significant move” – USD lowers expected. Kong Krystal ball intact.

Now things get a little trickier as……this may very well be the final daily cycle where The U.S Dollar continues to register “lower lows” and “lower highs” before generating what we would refer to as an “intermediate bottom”. You can push it to the degree that I have ( having been essentially “short USD” for what – weeks / months now? ) but there comes a time where you need to lighten up/ back out / prepare for a change in direction.

I am looking ahead and preparing for just that.

You think I give a shit which direction things go? Not in the slightest ( as I am devoid of these petty emotions ) as long as I’m on the right side of it. It’s called trading last time I looked.

I’m riding USD lower but am already of the mindset that this might be the last short entry for some time.  Get this right people…I’m short USD….and already plotting areas of support / resistance with full consideration that my “next USD trade” may very well be a long position.

Can you wrap your head around this? No waffling. No see-saw. No wishy-washy bullshit, just proper planning and execution.

If you’re not looking ahead. Maybe you’re watching too much T.V.

What are you looking at? Seriously……let me know what you’re looking at ( market indicators / geo news etc..) I want to know.

                             Forex_Kong