Did we not see this coming? Indeed.
The US dollar has put in “yet another” devastating over night session in Asia. Down -65 as EUR hits near term / 6 month highs. AUD/JPY has stalled out below 84.40 ( not bad Kong! ) and the world is a wonderful place. Trades are in the green some 3 weeks after moving sideways across the top….the first “significant move” – USD lowers expected. Kong Krystal ball intact.
Now things get a little trickier as……this may very well be the final daily cycle where The U.S Dollar continues to register “lower lows” and “lower highs” before generating what we would refer to as an “intermediate bottom”. You can push it to the degree that I have ( having been essentially “short USD” for what – weeks / months now? ) but there comes a time where you need to lighten up/ back out / prepare for a change in direction.
I am looking ahead and preparing for just that.
You think I give a shit which direction things go? Not in the slightest ( as I am devoid of these petty emotions ) as long as I’m on the right side of it. It’s called trading last time I looked.
I’m riding USD lower but am already of the mindset that this might be the last short entry for some time. Get this right people…I’m short USD….and already plotting areas of support / resistance with full consideration that my “next USD trade” may very well be a long position.
Can you wrap your head around this? No waffling. No see-saw. No wishy-washy bullshit, just proper planning and execution.
If you’re not looking ahead. Maybe you’re watching too much T.V.
What are you looking at? Seriously……let me know what you’re looking at ( market indicators / geo news etc..) I want to know.
Market euphoria has now lead to a complete and total collapse in volatility.
Volatility rises when people get scared. No one appears to be very scared as volatility is now at an “all time low” ( obviously correlation with markets being near all time highs ) – Get it?
Isn’t this about the time one starts thinking…hmmm….no one is scared, volatility at all time low, markets at all time highs….hmmm…..thinking, thinking….hey! Let’s start looking at buying some volatility around here!
Volatility Has Crashed
One can only assume we are getting very close to a reasonable bounce in volatility as – markets never change. Just when you think it’s safe…..boom – things head in the opposite direction.
Watch that Nikkei. Watch that AUD/JPY as well USD/JPY and add volatility to your short list ’round these levels.
A lil bit of UVXY here over coming days? I like it.
The Dollar has now “indeed” swung high and is now making its way towards it’s “next” daily low.
Dollar Swung High
Friday made for a great entries but today will work for you as well.
With USD rolling over this early in the daily cycle we’ve got days to go here so get on you Short shorts! USD headed lower throughout this week.
Everything is moving along as suggested…just slower. Grinding away traders patience, mother market continues to keep you on your toes. A full 10 days now straight across the top as DOW and SPY continue to hang. The Nikkei has pushed “further” than expected, and Gold has not yet given a reason to re enter.
So……I don’t have a trade yet. No biggy but……I do like to stay active. How’d the last 10 days go holding longs? ( No money made ).
I plan to wait a touch longer ’til I see turns in both USD/JPY as well Gold….both in rather “stretched cycles”. As it stands Gold should have formally bottomed days ago so…..everything prolonged. Everything stretched.
So it goes at times….we can only make plans for the future “as we imagine it”.
With the French election out-of-the-way, and now seeing the market reaction as “completely unamused”, I continue to hold tight in cash ’til I see something “convincing” turn my head.
Tech stocks still performing well this a.m as well so no real reason to jump out on the playing field here today!
So many retail investors constantly searching for the “single metric” that “single indicator” that will Trump all, and provide the most valuable insight into the deep dark secrets of “mother market”.
Look no further.
The currency pair USD/JPY tells you everything you need to know.
USD/JPY at resistance
No need to draw any more lines / arrows on the chart as you can clearly see ( by looking back and identifying areas of previous support and resistance) – USD/JPY is now approaching “serious” resistance here around 112.00
This is a simple “bell weather for risk appetite” as….USD/JPY will FALL as risk comes off. From a purely technical standpoint – things don’t look good for bulls here.
Watch and see as the outcome from this week’s Fed meeting comes to light here Wednesday. You’d have to assume The Fed will again “talk down the dollar” as further appreciation will continue to kill U.S Exports.
I’m locked and loaded. Have you made your plan?
You get the message. This is setting up to be one of the largest scale moves ( downward ) we will have seen in quite some time. As suggested many, many moons ago…I see the Japanese Nikkei as putting in a “lower high” on very large time frames. This is the market that leads. USD/JPY bounce is gonna flop hard.
I see SP 500 / Dow / Risk Appetite topping out with “near to all time highs” or even “all time highs” with a large-scale / major correction to follow. Can you understand that the investment world at large is “scared sh%tless” with respect to the current geopolitical situation? Let alone the U.S Gov gone broke and now nearing “shutdown” over the weekend.
Remember that pesky “debt ceiling” I was ranting about some months ago? Of course you don’t well…..if these boneheads in Washington don’t get their heads together over the next few days….Government shutdown.
Oh the irony. Trump needs billions for the wall? ( never gonna happen ) and promising tax cuts / infrastructure spending? ( never gonna happen ). The dems and repubs can’t get together on anything “of value” but they suuuuuuure can when it comes time to increase the debt ceiling right? Unreal.
I could just as well jump on this now as this is so telegraphed / so glaring. Short risk. Short USD. Short humanity.
We’re headed lower FAST, and with my profits in gold/ short USD via Forex – I will purchase enough graphene to build my elevator to space.
This set’s up time and time again when you’ve got the timing right. Gold is going to complete its correction here very shortly, and there are several “juicy trades” on deck. Every “wanna be stock guy” on the planet has this chart / set up on his screen.
Something interesting though…
The U.S Dollar “has bounced” against a large number of currencies but “vewy very quietwy” as The Euro has bounced EVEN more! This is not something you see very often and ( in my view ) is suggestive of some very VERY SERIOUS currency repositioning.
This is setting up for “crash like / waterfall action” in USD – and I would expect U.S Equities to follow.
I “could enter as early as Friday as this is a slam dunk. Risk gonna come off HARD next week.
Here is what you do:
Wait until you see gold bottom / dollar top. You need to “get ready and wait” as this one’s gonna help you pay for that big vacation you’ve been planning.
The FOMC meeting is early next week so I would not be surprised if we just bounce around ’til then. Get ready and wait…I’ll post specifics over coming days but this is the plan. This is gonna be a doozy!
I’ve sat out a few days and missed some pretty decent action in USD – as the slide continues.
This will continue for much longer, so I’m going to take a day er two here to let it breathe – then jump back in on the short side. The U.S Dollar is attempting to find a bottom, not only in an immediate sense ( having absolutely no luck ) but more so in an “intermediate / medium term” sense. Let me explain…
When you see a continued pattern of “lower lows and lower highs” on a daily chart / time frame you’ve got to understand….this is no small time trend. We are talking about weeks and week of a given asset falling lower, then lower than the previous low, then lower than “that” low until finally a much larger “intermediate cycle” completes. You dig?
The U.S Dollar will bounce here and likely bring in a large number of traders assuming this is a bottom. This IS NOT even close. Look for a decent bounce here on the 1H as a great place to re enter short.
That’s all I’ve got for today folks as I am busy busy with “yet another venture” so…watch for the bounce here in “risk in general” and get your levels checked/locked and loaded on all correlating pairs – set for another round of “short use trades”.
Let’s put this in perspective first.
You live in a tiny “tiny” bubble. You see the world through the broken lens of your local media, and can’t imagine a world where “fake news” actually exists. Wait…..you actually believe the news on your local news channel?
Aside from the human interest stories ( often highlighting people with their dogs…or more often than not – people “crying the blues” about how hard they have it ) your local news serves only as a simple extension of the “administration” and the message you are “required to view” – short of actually developing opinions/ideas of your own.
Television shepherds to living room sheep.
Face it. You have absolutely no clue what is going on, short of tuning in each night with your Cheetos and Budweiser in hand…having the local “news gal” spew crap ’til you finally switch to the game.
The world is moving much faster than you can imagine. Currencies tell all – T.V’s suck.
Trade wise…..hmmm…….an interesting junction although in all – really not that interesting.
Commodities “in general” are up against a bit of resistance here so – I could suggest a few things.
Commodities At Resistance
- Take profits in Gold as it’s been a hoot ( not to say the long term play is 100% totally still in play ).
- Take stock of the current geo political situation and ask yourself..truly…..is this really the time to go “all in” on the long side? Don’t be a dumb ass.
The powers that be aren’t quite ready to switch the algo’s from “buy to sell” in a macro sense, but in all honesty….even a run towards the highs doesn’t really amount to much.
Sometimes “no trade” is the best trade…and I’m not suggesting anyone get’s all giddy bout stocks but….we’ve got war! We’ve got war now so…..what does any American President do when his ratings slip past the red line??
You betcha…..time to really the troops! Time to get that ‘Merican blood pumping! We’re going to war! Let’s just start a war!
So obvious….so “cliche”.
I’m in cash….and will stay that way for at least a day er two. You know where I’ll be should anything “significant” actually come to play.
Bang on the money.
I bought JNUG at 6.80 yesterday afternoon, as well shorted USD/JPY and AUD/JPY. I took long positions in both EUR/USD and GBP/USD first thing this morning.
How can anyone imagine the meeting of Trump and Chinas President Xi being anything less than a total disaster?
April 11th I “believe” to be a full moon ( what you didn’t check your lunar cycles either? ) – I am very comfortable with these positions through the weekend and beyond.
It’s celebration time here so…..have a good one y’all.