forex trading

Insanity Trade – Don't Try This At Home

Forex Kong 14 Comments

As of late – I feel I’ve gotten a little soft.

Pulling back over the summer months ( knowing ahead of time it was gonna be rocky ) has me a tad complacent, and dare I say a touch out of character. Should impending war, global Central Bank intervention , looming collisions with massive asteroids , or nuclear disaster stand in the way of a seasoned forex trader? No chance.

It’s time to light this candle.

September is upon us and blog traffic has literally tripled in a matter of days. I’ve been over the “reader’s poll” ( and want to thank all of you who’ve contributed!) and understand that a large number of you really want to get down to some of the “real-time trades” and straight up entry/exit stufff – no bones about it.

I need to have a little fun once in a while too, as doing this for a living can really get to you at times. Daily walks on a Caribbean beach, cold beer, swimming with turtles/whale sharks, diving , salsa bars, bone fishing etc……these things can really wear on a guy!

I am placing an order “long EUR/AUD” at 1.43 – as well “short CAD/CHF at 90.00 and fully expect that if anyone else tries this……….you will be taken directly to the cleaners.

I implore you “not to try this”. And don’t even ask me  “how / why”.

Summers over. I’m done tapping the brakes.

Let’s get this show on the road.

Forex Trade For Monday – Kong Gone

Forex Kong 5 Comments

The move in USD on Friday was certainly the kind of thing I like to see. We’ve now consolidated / moved sideways for 3 or 4 days now, and “should” see a resolution of this kind of action – early in the week.

Seeing that equities have continued to “churn” near all time highs, and on the cusp of some pretty big news / data coming over the next few days ( and weeks with “potential WW3 as well the “U.S debt ceiling breached” ) a solid move cannot be far away.

I’m off to the beautiful “Isla Mujeres” this morning and likely won’t be back until late Monday night. I feel that positioned “short USD” as well “long JPY” in general is the right place to be for the moment – and don’t plan to be looking at this trade until Tuesday.

Elections in Australia over the weekend will also provide some movement in AUD Monday, and I’m assuming that movement will be “up”.

If you can believe how old the article is (Feb 10, 2013), and make note of the level cited in EUR/USD you may even get a laugh.

https://forexkong.com/2013/02/10/long-eurusd-at-1-3170-watch-me/

It’s amazing that these levels are hit over n over again.

I will look to take this trade come Tues.

Sun ‘n sand for a day er two on this end……enjoy everyone!

 

 

written by F Kong

 

Reloading Forex Positions – How To

Forex Kong 9 Comments

Ok….so you’ve missed the initial move.

You’ve sat idle, and now  worse –  tuned in to your local financial news to see “what all the fuss is about”.  I can only assume they are telling you to “buy, buy , buy!” and that everything is hunky dory, blah,blah, blah. Please……we know much better than that.

Pull up your charts on pretty much “anything and everything” and zoom in on what’s happened here today. For the most part, nearly every point / buck has been retraced across the board equities wise ( rinsing the entire lot ) while the forex crowd bask in the sunshine of never-ending dollar debasement.

If you want to “get in on the action” you’ll need to be a fairly savvy trader – or at least be willing to take on a bit of risk, on order to take advantage of the continued moves ahead.

Drop down to at least a 1 Hour chart on a pair like USD/CAD for example, and ask yourself – is now the best time to enter? After such a precipitous drop?

Patience young grasshopper.

You now need to apply a bit your “short-term technical know how” in seeing that a larger trend “IS” now clearly established, but that “now” may not be the most opportune time to enter.

Fib retracement levels come to mind – looking at the last move on 1H and considering “how far might this thing retrace” before continuing on its path downward.

A moving average may also provide “some indication” of level where price may normally retrace.

Any way you cut it…..chasing a move almost always results in pain and agony, as “just when you think you’ve got this figured out” – the damn thing shoots off in the opposite direction.

Patience young grasshopper. This “can” be learned. This “will” be learned.

F Kong

( this “F Kong” thing is being included as to see if I can get the boys at Google to recognize me as a credible author).

My Google profile page can be viewed here at: F Kong at Google+

Short And Sweet – Forex Profits Galore

Forex Kong 31 Comments

I’m looking for a little feedback here today.

I’m hoping to see / hear from some of you / possibly frustrated Forex traders, who’ve been following closely this week.

I hope you’ve taken some time to follow along, and seriously consider some of the concepts/ideas thrown around here at the blog. Last nights “tweet” as to the weakness in Japan, as well all of yesterday’s conversation “should” have made for some pretty happy traders here this morning.

In particular a valued reader suggesting the information here was “useless banter” “should” be up 150 pips over night on a single trade suggestion alone.

This stuff doesn’t turn on a dime, as we’ve worked this trade since Tuesday – but the profits as of this morning “should” make a few days effort well worth it.

I plan to sit tight and let this trade develop further, as we are “now” hearing suggestion that “the Fed may not taper”.

Didn’t I say that like a couple of months ago?

JPY And Gold – Is It Happening Now?

Forex Kong 12 Comments

Consider this.

We know the Japanese stimulus program is over 3 times larger than that of the U.S Fed. Now that’s an awful lot of printing/liquidity injection coming at a time when the “U.S contribution” has pretty much run its course.

Yes the bond buying/prop plan continues in the U.S but we all know the stimulus money  more or less just sits on the balance sheets of the big banks on Wall Street. The “talk of tapering” would also have put a damper on any “impulsive buying” at this point – as we look forward to an environment where interest rates are on the rise.

As “Japanese Stimulus” is converted to U.S Dollars ( in order to buy assets denominated in USD ) we ‘ve seen “many a day” where USD is UP as well U.S Equities are higher. Makes sense right? Japanese “hot money” converted to USD to buy U.S Equities.

So what’s the “unwind” of that trade should things go to hell in a hand basket?

U.S Equities are first “sold” and USD moves considerably higher, and fast – as cash is raised. Then that “USD” is repatriated home ( converted back to the currency of its origin – in this case Japan) where we would see large flows “back into JPY”!

Gold would also move higher as USD is sold, U.S equities are sold, Japanese Equities are sold.

JPY fly’s out of orbit?

Take it for what it’s worth – I’m thinking out loud….but it doesn’t seem so difficult to get your head around. The big winners on a “risk off” trade being both JPY and Gold.

Forex Market Moves – Thursday Is The Day

Forex Kong 7 Comments

Once again we find that markets have more or less traded flat through the first few days of the week – looking to Thursday’s release of U.S data for the catalyst. I’ve suggest this several times in the past, and again am asking myself “what is the point of even entering a trade these days – if not on / around Thursday?”

This sets up a relatively dangerous dynamic, as that – in the past traders would usually have considered “holding trades” over the weekend a bit of a risk. Well these days, the way things are – you really don’t have a choice. The majority of intraday moves occur in the pre-market now ( before you even get a chance to see them) and now traders are faced with the quandary of entering trades late in the week, and holding through “risk laden” weekend volatility. Talk about a tough trading environment. I’d say the toughest I’ve seen – ever.

USD movement has also held traders hostage early this week, as we teeter on the edge of a breaking point. It’s touch and go here this time, as global concerns over Syria and a handful of other “risk events” have kept us hovering at relatively crucial levels.

I’m flat as a pancake more or less – with a couple “long JPY” trades a few pips in the weeds.

The Nikkei hit suggested resistance last night, and has formed a bit of a reversal but it’s too soon to call it. I imagine we’ll get our move (one way or the other) sometime this morning after U.S data hits the news.

 

written by F Kong

Intraday Trade Update – Early Signal

Forex Kong 6 Comments

My “Intraday Trade Alert” seems to have caused a bit of comotion.

I thought it would be a reasonable idea to “follow-up” and quickly touch base on “where I’m at” a full 24 hours later. As per usual my “signal” was a tad early.

USD has most certainly “swung high” here as of this morning, and trades in USD/CHF as well USD/CAD are doing well, with USD/JPY still a tough nut to crack. The weakness in USD has been “surpassed” by even greater weakness in JPY, as the Nikkei Index pushed “once again” right up into it’s over head resistance area.

Would we be considering a full on “breakout” in risk here?  And perhaps more importantly – how long would we expect this to last?

I find it a tad “unrealistic” that only days ahead of a proposed missile attack in the Middle East, that investors would be scrambling like mad to buy Japanese stocks no?

As well – considering the “safe haven” aspects of the Japanese Yen ( JPY ) I can only imagine it to “blast towards the moon” should we get firm word that indeed – war on.

Intraday activity is nearly impossible to pin down “forex wise” as these things never turn on a dime, and never happen “all at once”. Trading “small and wide” can make the difference in staying in the game – long enough to hit those “long smooth patches” we all dream about.

I’m very often early…..but rarely ever late.

Intraday Trade Alert! – Short Term Views

Forex Kong 34 Comments

For fun I figured I’d throw out exactly what I’m looking at on a “per pair” basis.

I don’t generally make “intraday calls” but as it stands, let’s give it a go and you guys can beat me up over it later.

USD/CAD – short it….right here right now.

USD/CHF – short it …right here right now.

USD/JPY – short it…right here right now.

AUD/JPY – short it …right here right now.

I’ve got a pile more, but “assume” you get my drift.

JPY a “buy” here, and USD a “sell”.

Take it for what it’s worth ladies….and don’t go bet the farm.

Have a look at both EUR/USD as well GBP/USD but with “super small positions” – (I’ll debate a trade on these dogs later as well).

You get rich – thank me…….you lose your house? Talk to you later.

Back To Trading Forex – War Averted

Forex Kong 1 Comment

Trading forex in the coming week should prove to be volatile to say the least. We’ve got all kinds of data coming out, as well whatever “monkey wrench” the U.S cares to throw into the mix “war wise”.

Overnight China’s manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (CPMINDX) was 51.0 in August, a touch better reading than expected – which could give AUD a boost. Similar reports are expected from both the Eurozone as well U.K, as well the European Central Banks policy meetings on the 5th.

Assuming that “no war” should be generally a positive for markets, I’m sticking to the theory that we will see continued weakness in USD in the coming week, leading into the “war decisions” scheduled for September 9th.

I imagine that whatever decision U.S Congress makes – this should provide an excellent “pivot” in markets, and likely provide the “needed catalyst” to get things moving in a more decisive manner.

In line with my originally suggested time line “mid September” looks to be an excellent time for USD to make a reasonable bounce, lining up quite perfectly with the typical flow “towards US Dollars” in times of extreme fear / risk aversion.

Trade wise my expectations are relatively low next, as I will likely be taking profits on just about anything and everything as I see them come in – looking to get to 100% straight cash for September 9th area, then “possible reversal” of intermediate time frame and “possibly” even fundamental market view.

YOU DON’T WANT TO GET CAUGHT SHORT THE U.S DOLLAR IN TIMES OF GLOBAL RISK AVERSION, AS THE MOVES CAN BE VERY SUDDEN AND VERY LARGE.

Russia Hosts G20 – Obama To Attend?

Forex Kong 9 Comments

Obama is headed for Sweden on Tuesday, then off to the next G20 meeting in…………if you can believe it – RUSSIA!

The uphill battle in looking for global support in attacking Syria looks to be moving as suggested. Britain’s out, and as suggested The U.N Security Council shows no support for the move, as well I believe NATO ( please don’t quote me as I’ve read a million stories here this morning) has also squashed the idea.

This leaves Obama “literally” on his own, as actions against Syria under these conditions would now put “HIM” in breach and violation of International Law.

I’m trying my best to wrap my head around a scenario where this quack shoots “unauthorized missiles” at a country where “proof of wrong doing” is still just a “headline in U.S news” , and then plans to sit around a table with other world leaders at the G20 in Russia  – just a few days later.

If this Bashar al – Assad guy is a nut bar, then we’d better create another category of “nut bars” for Obama.

You’d have to be out of your mind to do something like this – absolutely out of your mind.