psychology of trading

Daily Cycle Maxed – We Bottom Wednesday

Forex Kong Got something to say?

I don’t own any stocks first off…….and I haven’t for months. What have I missed? Jack squat man……15 weeks of watching this thing day in day out –  wiped in a few afternoons? Not my bag.

I don’t trade Forex much anymore either as it’s lost it’s appeal in comparison to “riding into the future” on a spaceship purchased with Bitcoin.

You may want to to revisit my previous posts / suggestions about cryptocurrency and consider my firm belief that we are on the cusp of an entirely “new financial paradigm” wherein –  I don’t want anything to do with the phoney baloney / last gasp / hand off to retail / overvalued / bought back stocks of the day.

Wall St. is selling like mad, as the last of the “armchair investors” scrape together their last few shillings to buy stocks – right at the top. Just like always. This will never change.

Did you happen to see any of the recent crypto currency gains? Gary? You there? You dolt. Way to go man….running a pay service with suggestions that crypto will go to zero….pure brilliance.

From a technical standpoint, you stock jockey’s are gonna catch another break here mid week with the equities cycle on day 44 now. we are totally oversold and the bounce will come within days “if not” tomorrow. I don’t question that stocks will bob along over the next 3 – 4 months but……if they do get anywhere near the previous highs…once again you’d count yourself as “batshit lucky”.

Dow now at support

Dow now at support

Here on the weekly chart we can clearly see an area of support and resistance around these levels, and the daily trend is still “up” so……another run towards the highs quite probable, although please keep in mind…

This will be the 4th attempt to break thru. How does that line up with a recession on deck? Perfectly…if you plan to sell.

Bitcoin is on a tear as expected but I assume it will pull back to a new level of support here soon – then be off to the races FOREVER.

I’m just throwing out another quick reminder to all – please be cautious. Please bank profits. Please don’t buy anymore CNBC Kool-aid.

Oil baby oil! Silver baby silver! Bitcoin baby Bitcoin!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dow Weekly Swing Low – Back To The Highs

Forex Kong 4 Comments

The completion of this “intermediate cycle” is now within striking distance, after several days of extremely frustrating / volatile trading. Wow – what a shake out.

Now the technicals are “just a hair away” from confirming a “weekly swing low” (when the close of the weekly candle is “higher” than the close of the previous weekly candle).

You see it here? Just a few more points and the swing will be complete.

Dow Weekly Swing Low

Dow Weekly Swing Low

I would also take note of the “screaming double top” There around 26,900. Yo can clearly see rejection back in Jan/Feb as well as here in October.

The average stock today (ok a few days ago) is trading at 73% above its historical average valuation.

There are only two other times in history that stocks were more expensive than they are today: just before the Great Depression hit and in the 1999 run-up to the dotcom bubble burst.

One would have to ask themselves ‘What possible upside could remain” considering the gong show in evaluations, the bleak earnings we just saw in Q3, the trade war as well both China and Russia dumping BILLIONS of U.S Dollar Debt…..and the results of the mid term elections likely to have “significant impact” if indeed democrats steal back the house or senate.

Since March, Russia has dumped 84% of it’s American debt holdings! 84%! The bond selling has now reached “waterfall levels” with no real signs of support.

The U.S Dollar is set for the next “dumping” here as of today as well.

With the weekly swing low “essentially in” one might expect that stocks shoot for the highs here once again BUT! Mid terms could put a rook in those plans.

Generally speaking……what we will see over the next few weeks will be those retail investors who have “finally gotten off the couch” thinking this time it will be different.

It’s never different.

10 years straight up……..unprecedented. How does 2-4 years down sound? 

Totally normal, as we’ve got 150 years of data to work from.

10 years up? Common…….the “down” is gonna look equally nutty.

 

 

 

Stay SHORT USD – USD Pop ‘n Drop

Forex Kong 4 Comments

Daily cycles can vary in length for different assets, but in general The U.S Dollar tends to move in an “18-22 day period” from trough to trough.

The previous daily cycle topped out on day 4 then rolled over for a good solid move lower over a 16 day period.

Today marks the beginning of a new daily cycle now………don’t get excited.

USD Downtrend to Continue

USD Downtrend to Continue

A new daily cycle that will “again fail” early ( if not immediately ) and roll back over for another “crater” into oblivion so……..a new daily cycle in a “bearish downtrend” only providing further opportunity to SHORT. The dark black line showing the resistance zone for USD. She ain’t poppin thru that – no way!

I’m not flinching / moving a muscle as today is a single day’s action that has already run straight into overhead resistance. The U.S Dollar is NOT reversing its downward trajectory here – hell no.

Waterfalls ahead. Stay Short – keep accumulating crypto. You’ll see.

 

 

Time Travel – Stock Markets – Cryptos ‘n Space

Forex Kong 1 Comment

Time travel is a bitch you know….

You feel as though you’ve only been gone for a second yet…. on return soon realize things have really changed. I mean like………really changed.

It’s been a fairly long time…and I apologize for that. Travelling the cosmos in search of new technologies is an arduous task yet incredibly satisfying when you hit your mark. Unfortunately this time I’ve come back to Earth somewhat empty handed, realizing that for the most part……seemingly…Earth itself is the current “hot bed of activity” with respect to new technologies and advancement.

What do you know eh?…..now if only we could stop killing each other, and perhaps slow the rate of environmental destruction to a crawl – maybe there’s a chance Elon gets a few of his supporters up to Mars before Trump nukes Korea. Bravo Elon….you’re on the right track brotha.

As I said….things have changed quite dramatically since my last visit.

Looking into markets, I continue to invest heavily in cryptocurrencies as ( if you don’t quite get the full picture – totally understandable and not unlike the vast majority of people ) this being the point exactly.

We stand on the cusp of a new era. A new beginning. A fresh start for those a generation behind, where “old money” still struggles with the concept. Totally understandable. It’s wild. It’s nutty……but it “is” the future, and it “will” change the face of our current economic system. There is incredible opportunity here so please….don’t sell yourself short. You can do it. You can learn this. You’ll get it. I promise.

space-gorilla

space-gorilla

Litecoin. Research it. Bitcoin…will inevitably become a “store of value” much like gold exists in our current paradigm. Understand it. Tron/TRX  is a token out of China that I have 100% confidence will provide 100X returns over coming years ( yes I said years ) so throw that on your radar as well. Justin Sun ( Tron’s creator ) is the protegé of Jack Ma ( I bet you know what Alibaba is no? ) so imagine when these guys put a few more deals together. Tron gonna fly.

As for Forex……well. My long-term predictions on the “ultimate demise of the U.S dollar” are obviously coming to fruition. This dog has been tanking now for months ( nailed it / killed it / banked coin ) and to be honest…….I’ve completely lost interest. There is no debate. The U.S Dollar will continue to fall, and with the advent of cryptocurrencies….likely harder / faster than originally suggested.

You can STILL short USD – like……Monday morning.

Stocks are insane…..I’m not touching them with a ten foot laser beam as…..the volatility ( -724 type days ) is a larger indication of the Wall St. machines “slowly” switching the algos to “sell”. Cover your asses….keep profits / hang on to cash and stop considering “this will go up forever” – cuz it won’t. Catch what you can over coming months but…….I’m 100% out of stocks….short of the continued rise in Canadian marijuana companies.

It will take a single headline these days ( Trump impeachment ?? ) to wipe out every single nickel you’ve made over the past year so…….take heed. Party on.

 

 

 

 

 

Still Short MUX – Still Long USD

Forex Kong 5 Comments

I’m bored. You’re bored too.

The summer grind is certainly “doing its thing” so a quick update on my trade activity will have you rolling your eyes. “Common Kong! – Give us something to trade man! You’re killing us here!”

Just stay short Gold and related names…..as the move hasn’t really even happened yet. Stay long USD as again…..these last few days / weeks have generally traded flat asa pancake but an intermediate decline in Gold ( and subsequent rally in USD ) is the only thing worth looking at here short/medium term.

I’ve added to my short play on MUX ( as a cheap gold short nothing more ) and am still holding short EUR/USD.

It’s boring as hell…but these trades will materialize in a more significant manner here shortly….all you have to do is be patient.

Forex_Kong_Bored

       Forex_Kong_Bored

 

Kong Back In Cash – Markets Going Nowhere

Forex Kong 1 Comment

As per my previous post – I have absolutely “zero expectations” for the next few weeks / months of trading.

I’ve seen this kind of market activity many, many times in the past. Dead money just sitting there doing nothing. Staring at it……not the way I choose to spend my days. Now, there is always the possibility that things may change…some major news event, or large-scale geo political scenario where markets react but seriously……in the current environment, the “Trump environment”?? One can only assume something impactful leading to further “downside” if anything.

This “summer thing” is for real, and rightfully so. People are out throwing frisbee’s with the dog – not hunkered down in some dingy basement pouring over charts.

Best recommendation I can make for trigger happy traders –  keep a close watch for news / anything that “might” provide opportunity to move the needle but otherwise..take this down time to do two things:

  1. Practice your entries on a one hour chart.
  2. Continue study on “macro markets” as opposed to “day to day activity” in a single market.

The one hour chart is where I generally make my entries “after” I’ve established a reasonable area of both “price and time” to do so. This generally dictated by daily cycle counts.

Getting a handle on “how this entire thing works” is extremely valuable. Once you’ve included Japan in your analysis, currencies and their roles on a global perspective “and” the relationship with bonds / stock prices and gold. You’ve got a very good platform to form your trade analysis.

If you only approach this as a technical exercise ( trading that is ) …..unfortunately you’ll struggle longer term.

I’m cashed out, short of small holdings in ACB ( Aurora Cannabis ) having blasted out my few “USD long trades” entered some days ago –  flat / break even / boring as hell / stuck in the mud.

I don’t waste time on this, when markets go on holidays.

 

Forex_Kong_Bored

                   Forex_Kong_Bored

 

 

 

Curb Your Expectations – Summer Has Arrived

Forex Kong 6 Comments

I’ll make this short and sweet.

Just because you’ve got your fancy new monitors set up, and all your charts / bells / whistles / lights ‘a flashing – doesn’t mean you’re gonna find a trade. Human nature would have it that you “expect” amazing things to happen. You’ve got all the tools, you’ve even gone a little overboard on that “extra screen” and you’re hell-bent on sitting down every morning at your trade terminal, and conquering the world.

Sorry buddy…ain’t gonna happen.

I can’t tell you how many times in the distant past I was 100% completely “jacked” to jump on into markets based on some over night news release, or some new article I’d found. Like a kid on Christmas morning I’d be up well before the crack of dawn, hardly able to contain myself sitting there in dark waiting……waiting…waiting for that opening bell.

Then summer came along and spoiled the party.

Hours on end sitting there staring at charts now frozen. Pacing the floor in anticipation of “hitting my exit” only to find the trade moving sideways for days……then days ‘n days more. Finally one year it got so bad that I almost gave up. I just couldn’t understand. There it all was right in front of my face…lights flashing, news running, bing bing – bam bam! Let’s do this!!

ZZZ zzzz zzzz…….zip…nada..zero – nothin.

You can’t make markets move, and as much as it’s a difficult thing to do when you’re just so excited to just get in there and kick ass…you’ve got to understand.

There is a time to step on the gas, and there are times to pump the brakes. Summer has arrived baby.

Get ready for whole lot o’ nothin.

empty trade terminal

                                                                     empty trade terminal

 

Gold Bottom, Dollar Crash – Kong Coming!

Forex Kong 17 Comments

This set’s up time and time again when you’ve got the timing right. Gold is going to complete its correction here very shortly, and there are several “juicy trades” on deck. Every “wanna be stock guy” on the planet has this chart / set up on his screen.

Something interesting though…

The U.S Dollar “has bounced” against a large number of currencies but “vewy very quietwy” as The Euro has bounced EVEN more! This is not something you see very often and ( in my view ) is suggestive of some very VERY SERIOUS currency repositioning.

This is setting up for “crash like / waterfall action” in USD – and I would expect U.S Equities to follow.

I “could enter as early as Friday as this is a slam dunk. Risk gonna come off HARD next week.

Here is what you do:

Wait until you see gold bottom / dollar top. You need to “get ready and wait” as this one’s gonna help you pay for that big vacation you’ve been planning.

The FOMC meeting is early next week so I would not be surprised if we just bounce around ’til then. Get ready and wait…I’ll post specifics over coming days but this is the plan. This is gonna be a doozy!

Forex_Kong_Prepares

       Forex_Kong_Prepares

Thursday Cometh – USD Slide To Continue

Forex Kong 1 Comment

I’ve sat out a few days and missed some pretty decent action in USD – as the slide continues.

This will continue for much longer, so I’m going to take a day er two here to let it breathe – then jump back in on the short side. The U.S Dollar is attempting to find a bottom, not only in an immediate sense ( having absolutely no luck ) but more so in an “intermediate / medium term” sense. Let me explain…

When you see a continued pattern of “lower lows and lower highs” on a daily chart / time frame you’ve got to understand….this is no small time trend. We are talking about weeks and week of a given asset falling lower, then lower than the previous low, then lower than “that” low until finally a much larger “intermediate cycle” completes. You dig?

The U.S Dollar will bounce here and likely bring in a large number of traders assuming this is a bottom. This IS NOT even close. Look for a decent bounce here on the 1H as a great place to re enter short.

Re_Entry_Short_USD

                                                                              Re_Entry_Short_USD

That’s all I’ve got for today folks as I am busy busy with “yet another venture” so…watch for the bounce here in “risk in general” and get your levels checked/locked and loaded  on all correlating pairs – set for another round of “short use trades”.

 

Kong Wins Again – Risk Trade Hits

Forex Kong 10 Comments

Bang on the money.

I bought JNUG at 6.80 yesterday afternoon, as well shorted USD/JPY and AUD/JPY. I took long positions in both EUR/USD and GBP/USD first thing this morning.

How can anyone imagine the meeting of Trump and Chinas President Xi being anything less than a total disaster?

April 11th  I “believe” to be a full moon ( what you didn’t check your lunar cycles either? ) – I am very comfortable with these positions through the weekend and beyond.

It’s celebration time here so…..have a good one y’all.

forex_kong_happy

forex_kong_happy