psychology of trading

With the continued stream of data coming out of the U.S looking less than impressive, and the constant reminders of China’s impending slow down – there comes a point where one truly needs to step back  and take a good hard look at the reality of our current situation.

We’ve discussed “normalcy bias” here before as well the effectiveness of “money printing” and Central Bank interventions….as well we’ve been over hundreds of charts / values / levels etc navigating the day-to-day “ebb and flow” of currencies around this planet.

But what about the larger view? I mean – THE LARGER VIEW.

We know that the money printing can’t last forever. We know that the largest consumer economy on Earth (the U.S) is essentially flat to worse – after massive devaluations of its currency. We know that China is slowing down. We know that Europe is in no better shape than it was several years ago – and likely in worse shape behind the scenes.

We see / read that nearly every panel / comittee / board / analysis / is projecting for Global GDP to fall – not rise.

Short of advances in space exploration and biotech – what do you see as potentially the “next driver” in global growth?

Not some “housing number”..not some “fed announcement or recovery bullshit” – I’m talking about something that will actually SPUR GROWTH ( as did the Internet for example….the Industrial Revolution etc…) ?

If nothing immediately comes to mind then I suggest taking another moment to consider – how long do you seriously think this “Ponzi scheme” can continue short of something REAL happening to kick-start another phase of growth on this planet?

What’s it gonna be?

Over the years it’s been suggested on several occasions,  that perhaps I should write a book.

Not to say that my story is anything special ( by any means ) but fair to say “unique” – as I’ve wondered this planet some 15 years now with little to no sense of “home” and with few connections to anything……or anyone. Some call it lonely – I call it normal, as for the majority of my adult life – this is all I’ve known.

I used to stay at the same hotel whenever I’d get back to visit my family, and the girls at the front desk always had a chuckle. Knowing me as they did –  I’d been filed under “N for Nomad”. I had a laugh too.

Reasons for this behavior run the gambit. I have my own theories as do I assume  – those who know me. It’s not important. Without question I’m as regular a person as any on Earth, questioning at times – ” what am I doing?”  and “why am I the way I am?”

Up until most recently I’ve had little interest in “writing it all down”. From confrontations with machine gun packing Rastas in the West Indies…to long dark drives into “deep dark places” of Colombia…to the “helplessness” of being  trapped in an elevator in Romania. Problem being – I’ve never had a “plot” and for the life of me can’t come up with a decent ending.

Don’t get me wrong – there are some really good times as well.

They just don’t make for very interesting stories.

A pivotal day in “the life of Kong” as a number of factors come into play. Of particular significance “00.01” the irony, the drama – and further development of a story that just might have a plot……….and an ending!

I watch a lot of UFC  (mixed martial arts)  and often identify with the discipline required.

As a boy I gave wrestling a shot, as well judo –  and spent time in a “relatively serious” boxing environment before the ripe ol age of thirteen. I remember it all…….every minute  – like it was yesterday.

In particular a story from the boxing ring.

A new kid there in the garage –  fast, eager and more than just a little cocky. It didn’t take long until he as well,  had done his time and was ready for a real opportunity in the ring. We squared off , came together at the center, touched gloves and BANG!…….before I’d even taken a step back – the kid wound up and clocked me with everything he had.

It was the first time I’d truly “seen stars” and the rage that surged through in those seconds after – was again………something I will never forget, and despite every ounce of myself  screaming to ” annihilate this lil sh#$t” – I remained calm. I boxed.

3 rounds later – I lost that fight…………but in retrospect – I gained far more.

I learned how to take a punch. I learned that “life’s not fair”. I learned that  things will likely be a lot tougher than you expect – and that you can’t win all the time.

Needless to say – that kid didn’t last very long. He danced around a couple more sessions, but in the end couldn’t handle the crunches and circuit training, gave up and went home crying to his mother.

Boxing like trading – you really do need to learn………how to take a punch.