trade strategies

Forex Kong Viral Video – Must Watch!

Forex Kong 24 Comments

[youtube=http://youtu.be/OGshlIOGntc]

In the spirit of  “Billy Joe Jim Bob” I invite all of you! Please participate in the creation of your own “testimonial videos” as – you really can’t get enough of ’em.

I think I’ve replayed this back about a thousand times, and honestly have been laughing out loud most of the evening. I absolutely love this guy.

My eyes are wide open now!

Have a great weekend everyone, and please send this link / video to anyone and everyone you know who might enjoy a good laugh!

Craaaaaaa Zy!

Love it.

Fed To Freak! – QE To Double As Suggested!

Forex Kong 31 Comments

This is hilarious.

Or at least…..it’s hilarious to me as – you know full well what I’ve been talking about these last few months. With only 2 or 3 days down and emerging markets hemorrhaging, currencies selling off like hotcakes, and equites taking it on the chin.

A little “wakey wakey” out there people!  Anybody just “a little nervous” about what’s going on?

Gees….2 days and the sky is falling. Hello!

Well – CNBC is stumped of course, but still very, very positive about “buying the dip” and tapering “just getting started”. Uh Huh. Right..tapering as global growth / appetite for risk sets up for a major “tanking”.

The Fed will freak out sooner than later, pull taper and double QE as suggested.

EEM ( The Emerging Markets ) will be temporarily “saved” , U.S equities will rally “once again”, the U.S Dollar will continue it’s slide into the toilet, and the American people will be told “once again” that the Fed is a freaking superhero.

If you’re piecing this together at all, I hope you’ve come to realize what an impact “tapering” would have had ( I’m already talking in the past tense ) as the global “dependence” on these massive injections of liquidity has become so great – that essentially…it’s the only thing holding the house of cards up.

UPDATE: CNBC now quoting Kong with suggestion that “the Fed may need to look at “pulling back” on tapering!! But….I thought it was “pulling back on QE! – Give me a break!

I’m not putting a date on it, but as suggested here “forever” – this thing is so fragile, so dependent on stimulus, that ( in my view ) even the ridiculous “suggestion” of tapering QE could very well be the catalyst for a global move towards risk aversion.

Confirming that China’s growth is slowing, Canada pulling down GDP estimates, The EU a complete and total “disaster waiting to happen” and the U.S data so fudged…SO FUDGED it can’t even be considered relevant – what have you got?

Recovery baby…..oh ya – you bet. You buy that dip……then you keep buying.

Killing it……kiiiiillllllling it short humanity……long interplanetary travel.

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Learn To Trade Forex – Pep Talk For Beginners

Forex Kong 5 Comments

There are literally “too many trade opportunities” for me to go over / list at present in that I am extremely busy managing all this.

If you can imagine how patient we’ve been with nearly the entire month of January passing, and “nary a trade” – this is really what trading forex is all about. You’ve got to hit it when the opportunity presents itself. The patience required is enough to drive a person mad “until” you’ve come to recognize market dynamics and movement over a considerable period of time.

I’d argue that I’ve not caught a decent “sustained and reliable trend” since the massive depreciation of the Japanese Yen a year ago, as trading has been extremely tough, choppy and directionless for months.

You slug it out, you keep your positions smaller, you take profits faster. You learn to take your foot of the gas in the corners, and then “hit it” in the straight aways.

It’s a skill sure, but as with anything – if you want to get good at something you have to stick with it. Even if you aren’t “actually trading” pulling up the charts day after day, studying the price action, watching for recognizable signs of reversal etc…It will come – but with a considerable learning curve.

Shit…even me – here over the past 24 hours, jumping around, banging my head against the wall cuz I jumped out / took profits too soon. Then back at the computer to “grind out” re-entry that may not be the best. Laying half awake with freakin “japanese candle sticks dancing round my head” wondering if I should plan to get up “another hour earlier” to make sure I’m in the trade.

I make mistakes too! But you have to stick with it. You have to get past the “mystery” and stay in the game long enough to see things more clearly.

And you can’t catch them all. Man……I’ll trade up to 15 pairs on a given move and still see massive trades pass me by! You’ve just got to “catch what you can” and only take on as much as you can handle.

Anyways, I’m back at it – and I hope at least a couple of you will consider what I’ve said. Go easy, take your time, study the fundamentals and trade smaller!!

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I took another 3% profits and just as well may kick myself in the ass for not just hanging in but….these days I don’t really roll that way. Considering like 7%  practically overnight and I think another 7% over the past week – It’s been 90% sitting in cash and 10% market exposure so…the Kongdicator tune up has been an improvement, and we “might” be into a larger move here.

Ill keep taking the money and running as you know how markets are these days – I’m certainly not going to suggest “investing”.

China Numbers Fall – The Dow's Smoking Gun

Forex Kong 33 Comments

You don’t see it because you’re still pretty much stuck watching the T.V – looking for stock market direction, and perhaps a glimpse into where things are headed next.

I just watched one CNN gal ask “the other CNN gal” – The Dow is down -156 Why is this happening? Mutterings of “lower than expected Manufacturing PMI numbers” out of China, which IS actually the case! I almost couldn’t believe my ears. These gals got it right! Do you care?

Simple enough – above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction, so with a reading of 49.6 (the lowest reading in 6 months) we’ve found our smoking gun.

China is the global growth engine, and the United States largest creditor. As goes China so goes the United States (not to mention the rest of the planet) as global growth is clearly slowing!

So I’m curious….and would love to get some feedback.

What you plan to do about it? Seriously…..

Are you going to just “ride out the next dip”? What if it’s not a dip?

What would you need to see / hear on your “T.V” that would have you consider making plans / taking action to protect yourself – should things seriously come off the rails?

Are you watching the Australian Dollar get taken out to the woodshed here today? The Nikkei down -360 points! I’m up an additional 4% No wait……Justin Beiber just got caught drinking and driving so…..I’m sure that’s the top story for today. Pfffffffff!

I’d also be very wary loading up on gold here as I expect further USD strength. This would allow for gold/silver to “correct” at the very least.

 

The Truth On Syria – All About The Petrol

Forex Kong 7 Comments

You’ll have to understand that Syria has been in U.S sights long before this “humanitarian cause/save the people” campaign started up last year.

According to retired NATO Secretary General Wesley Clark, a memo from the Office of the US Secretary of Defense just a few weeks after 9/11 revealed plans to “attack and destroy the governments in 7 countries in five years”, starting with Iraq and moving on to “Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and Iran.” In a subsequent interview, Clark argues that this strategy is fundamentally about control of the region’s vast oil and gas resources.

Syria holds Russia’s only port to the Mediterranean Sea. That’s right – Russia ( the largest supplier of natural gas to all of Europe ) can’t operate its navy or its oil export operations without that port.

Can you imagine the blow to Russia if the U.S where to occupy Syria? Never gonna happen. Never.

As suggested “well before” Obama put his tail between his legs, and paddled back to the states the “last time” Putin ( and his Chinese counterparts ) would not allow U.S intervention in Syria. Not a chance.

Syria has also been in talks with Iran about building a pipeline to allow for Iranian oil reserves to be shipped through, as well Saudi’s Prince Bandar bin Sultan has stated ” whatever regime comes after” Assad, it will be “completely” in Saudi Arabia’s hands and will “not sign any agreement allowing any Gulf country to transport its gas across Syria to Europe and compete with Russian gas exports” so…….if you’re starting to put the pieces together here – Syria is an extremely significant and important country with respect to its geopolitical and geo “pipelineal” relations.

There is no question that Assad is a war criminal whose government deserves to be overthrown. The real  question is by whom, and for what interests?

I’m some 300 pips in the green on several short AUD trades tweeted / posted yesterday with plans to see if I can’t “hold on to these babies” a little longer. Wild swings in currencies overnight with USD taking a dip, but really just to trendline support. I’ll be watching close today for intra day reversal and opportunity to keep pushing long USD / short risk.

Perhaps you hadn’t noticed by way of the SP 500 making a 16 day run flat as a pancake – but “risk” is clearly selling off in the currency markets. I’d suggest keeping a watchful eye.

U.S.A Is Broke – New Levels Of Desperation

Forex Kong 11 Comments

The United States of America is broke. You do understand that – don’t you?

We’re not talking about ” a little bit of a cash flow problem” or a short-term need for a “loan” no no no…..we’re talking about 100% flat-out broke, robbing Peter to pay Paul type broke, applying for a new credit card as fast as the applications can be filled out, scrounging around the living room, searching for loose change under the couch type broke.

Totally….and absolutely – flat busted.Zip.Nada.Zero type broke.

You do understand that right?

The idea of a “debt ceiling” is a complete and total “fabrication” serving no “real world” purpose, and as ridiculous as the idea of recovery in itself. The U.S debt ceiling will be raised, then raised again, then again and again…then again as there is no such thing! It’s debt to the moon as the entire economic model is built on debt!

I worry at times that people are still of the mindset that “oh well…..these things will work themselves out” or “it’s just a rough patch – everything is going to be just fine”.

You aren’t one of “those” are you?

Do you understand the net effect of these “zero percent interest rates” over time? You’ve got it right? You understand the objective here?

Seniors and anyone who may have worked their entire lives to save enough money to retire, now find their bank balances being drained like never before! 0% interest actually has a standard bank account “losing money” day-to-day as the cost of goods just keeps going higher, and there’s not a single point of interest given on savings. Factor in “fees” and you’ve got yourself and entire generation of Americans being stripped of their savings, and “forced” to seek yield in much riskier assets like……….The stock market of course! Yes yes! Take your hard-earned nest egg ( or perhaps even apply for a high interest loan) and put your money into the stock market!!

That’s what your banker or broker will tell you no?

The level of desperation appears so obvious and blatant to the outside observer, I’m seriously dumbfounded that Americans have yet to “rise up” and “speak out” of the “fleecing” currently under way. This “massive bag of debt” will in turn, be handed off to the next generation unable to survive without at least a couple of credit cards of their own….saddled with the burdens of their grandparents now sitting in cold dark rooms with little to eat – drowning in health care premiums.

I can’t even get started with Obama Care ( or is it just a further extension of the “police state”? ) and of course, now we’ve got renewed talks of “humanitarian interests in Syria” and of course “more trouble in Iran”.

It’s about Oil and the preservation of the Petro Dollar people! You know that right?

Gees…….bury head back in sand please.

More on this….ALOT MORE ON THIS to follow.

Markets Trade Sideways – You Know What To Do

Forex Kong 4 Comments

I thought I’d wait until after the close today – hoping that “perhaps” there might be something a little more interesting or exciting to chat about. Low and behold…..not.

Today being the 15th trading day with the SP 500 still flopping back n fourth – in range.

Gold putting in some “constructive” moves but certainly nothing to write home about, and the US Dollar’s upward move has “for now” run a little low on steam.

Japan’s Nikkei has also continued to trade in range, unable to get back over that magical 16,000.

What’s changed? What’s new? Absolutely nothing as price action continues to trade sideways day in and day out. There is absolutely nothing you can do about it, just accept it and do your best to remain calm, focused, and don’t get lulled to sleep.

Markets have a tendency to “jump up and punch you in the face” at the most “inopportune time” so…..keep those eyes peeled and maybe “just maybe” we’ll see some fireworks here soon.

Ramblings On USD – Still The World Reserve

Forex Kong 8 Comments

This from the comments section, and some great points / questions raised by valued reader “Rob”.

Hi Rob.

Great trading man…I’m glad to hear you’ve been doing well.

You bet USD is most certainly the “current” world’s reserve currency, and yes “obviously” takes flows as other assets denominated in USD are sold (an incredible privilege for the U.S  – but unfortunately one that is currently being “so abused”).

We don’t see it in a day-to-day sense but….the fact is – the rest of the planet has had enough of the U.S abuse of it’s reserve status, and is making considerable effort to “insulate itself” from further devaluation. USD will rise but ( in my view ) only as a product of these market mechanics and NOT because anyone in their right mind is outright “buying USD”.

With some 85% of global forex transaction “still” involving USD ( as being the worlds reserve we have to appreciate how many countries “must” hold USD as a means to buy commods ) the ship can’t turn on a dime. It’s a cruise liner – not a speedboat.

Don’t be fooled. The macro vision has USD going to zero…while the shorter term zigs n zags may very well suggest USD strength.

In my view IT’S BY DEFAULT – in that USD is “still” the reserve, and as risk comes off – assets denominated in USD are sold and cash is raised.

Nothing more.

EU is a disaster, China looking to slow moving forward, and a complete and total joke of recovery in the U.S. No one “wants” to buy U.S dollars. It’s “relative strength” is a mere by-product of simple market mechanics.

As I see it anyway…..

Great stuff Rob….you’ve obviously got your head screwed on right. You can take my crap with a grain of salt, and even better with a nice shot of Tequila.

Trading The Pin Bar – A Candle To Watch

Forex Kong 10 Comments

Aside from my short-term technical indicator and longer term fundamental analysis, I am also a student of Japanese Candle Sticks. The formations created and the understanding of “what they suggest” (with respect to pure price movement) can be an extremely valuable tool for traders of any asset class.

Price is price no matter what you are trading, so learning to recognize and understand the “shapes and patterns” of a given candle or “series” of candles is a skill that you’ll eventually want to come as second nature.

The “Pin Bar” is a fantastic candle to keep your eyes open for as it usually suggests that price has been soundly rejected at a certain level and has moved quite dramatically during the duration of the candle. Lets have a look, as I had suggested “looking out for these” in both NZD/USD as well AUD/USD earlier in the week in the comments section.

Forex_Kong_Pin_Bar

Forex_Kong_Pin_Bar

You can see that price “originally” was as high as the “upper wick” of the candle extends, but as the week progressed continued lower, and lower to finish / close the candle at the absolute opposite end / lowest portion of the formation.

What does this simple “graphic representation of price action” tell you about the entire week’s activity? You’ve got it – in a single glance you’ve deduced that NZD/USD was literally “sold” right from the start of the week.

A simple strategy some traders look to employ – is to simply place a “sell order” under the low of the pin bar candle…and allow further movement in price to pick up them up as price continues to move lower.

Re entry in a number of pairs (obviously NZD/USD) is looking good however it appears that markets are stalling / sitting idle here. I’ve got several open trades but see the weekend coming and will look to re-evaluate before close here on Friday.

Spanish Speaking Traders – Bienvenidos!

Forex Kong 4 Comments

El idioma español es el segundo idioma más utilizado en los Estados States.

The Spanish language is the second most used language in the United States.There are more Spanish speakers in the United States than there are speakers of Chinese, French, German, Italian, Hawaiian, and the Native American languages combined.

According to the 2012 American Community Survey conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau, Spanish is the primary language spoken at home by 38.3 million people aged five or older, a figure more than double that of 1990.

Español es “el segundo idioma más popular” aprendida por hablantes nativos de Inglés Americano.

Spanish is “the most popular second language” learned by native speakers of American English.

I am very pleased to “kick off ” further promotion in several Latin American countries, and wish to extend a very warm welcome to those spanish speaking traders!

Estoy muy contento de “poner en marcha” una mayor promoción en varios países de América Latina, y el deseo de extender una cálida bienvenida a los comerciantes de habla Español!