trade strategy

Nikkei Down -638 Points – Long JPY Trade Is Gold

Forex Kong 4 Comments

The Japanese Stock Market ( The Nikkei ) is now down -638 points as Americans start “waking up”. China has cratered.

How are the long JPY trades going? – Absolutely golden!

The relationship between “risk appetite” and The Japanese Yen ( JPY ) has never been more clear, as short trades in AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, CAD/JPY and USD/JPY have produced some 5-600 pips in only a few short days.

USD trades remain flat, as the continued concerns about Greece keep EUR ( the polar opposite of USD ) in a continued state of flux/confusion.

This is not about Greece. It’s about China. It’s about global appetite for risk…and it’s about the big boys making a speedy exit with profits in hand, as The SP 500 “continues” to make lower highs and lower lows ( the definition of a down trend ).

This is certainly not over. It’s not a dip to be bought, as we’ve been on the other side of the mountain for days now.

Protect yourself, as I “remain” short risk.

 

 

 

 

Down Dooby-Doo Down Down – You Know This!

Forex Kong 10 Comments

The Japanese Nikkei ( you know……my favorite right?) Is currently down -422 points – and it’s only lunch time in Japan. That’s a 2% drop in a matter of 4 hours trading.

We touched on it last week when I (once again ) encouraged you to take note of the currency pair AUD/JPY and also suggested The SP would fade, and China would sink.

I expect tomorrow morning’s open will catch your attention…not to mention “the crater in your portfolio”, as markets tank, Japanese Yen sky rockets and The U.S Dollar continues to tank.

Wall St. already dumped their dollars ( on you retail ) so don’t look to see USD going anywhere but DOWN along with U.S Equities. You can use tomorrow’s price action as an indicator.

EUR is solid as a rock as of this evening. You’ll understand it…….some day.

We are deep in the money all the way around with the same underlying theme….risk off = Yen to the moon and USD to the basement.

No one wants to hold U.S Dollars ( as they are continually viewed as “worthless” ) when risk comes off…..it’s like a big game of musical chairs.

“Down Dooby-Doo Down Down” – The music is ending.

Don’t be the last to take a seat.

A Forex Plan Moving Forward – Risk Off

Forex Kong 1 Comment

The down trend in Japanese Yen ( and subsequent rise in risk appetite ) now looks to be “officially broken”. We clearly understand the relationship here.

It would take an awful lot to imagine pairs such as AUD/JPY or CAD/JPY reversing here, and putting in new highs. Very unlikely.

I am looking to start ( in typical fashion – with single contract entries ) short positions in any number of JPY related pairs with particular focus on JPY vs AUD, NZD, CAD ( the commodity related currencies ).

In general I expect to see JPY rise…..and USD fall along side risk.

I would be wary of trades in EUR/JPY , CHF/JPY and perhaps even GBP/JPY as “if/when” USD continues to fall….the E.U related currencies will take inflows so…..bigger moves to be seen in JPY vs Commods.

Still holding USD shorts – YES.

This is pretty “macro” here everyone, as at some point you’ve got to pick a side, plan your trades and put that plan into action.

If markets continue to trade “sideways” in general well……these trades could just as easily wallow/sit in the mud as the continued “distribution” here across the top goes on.

Broad strokes have me seeing a lower low now firmly established in SP 500 suggesting we bounce, and look for the ultimate short entry ( long JPY vs Commods, Short USD against E.U currencies ) over coming days.

If the media has us waiting until Sunday for more bullshit coming out of Greece – so be it. Small entries as mentioned above can be made prior…with thought in mind of either “adding to shorts higher” come Sun/Monday…..or getting some orders in “underneath” these pairs..allowing momentum to pick us up.

I see the table set for a significant move lower in risk appetite so….the breakdown above gives you the plan across most of the major currencies “pending” this plays out,,,,and “doesn’t” just continue trading back into the range.

Have fun. Enjoy some sun. Stay out of trouble if you can help it.

Investing Creatively – Get Outside The Box

Forex Kong 3 Comments

I’m pretty sure most of you are a touch “confused” about what to do these days.

Markets “appear” to be moving along with little concern for the world around them, and complacency is literally – RAMPANT. You need perspective. You need to step back. You need to consider that longer term trends and normal market dynamics are still in play – however delayed via Central Bank intervention, money printing, media blitz etc..

And if you are still one of those that feels the media plays “no role” in influencing your investment decisions well…..you need to step out! You have fallen down the rabbit hole, and will eventually climb to the surface….with nothing.

Understand that in order for the machine to keep moving forward, your investment capital is essential. You will never answer the phone to hear your broker suggesting to sell. Never. Your capital paves the way for the bankers and MUST remain in the system for the system to work.

Have you fully come to realize what “negative interest rates” in the E.U really means?

The banks will hold your money at a – negative interest rate. That’s right – you pay “them” to keep your money.

Have you ever heard of anything more ridiculous? Seriously….”0″ interest is one thing….but negative rates?

All the while you line up to make deposits. You’ve lost your mind and don’t even know it, as your trust in the system has completely stifled your ability to “think creatively”.

And isn’t the what humans do? Don’t we make stuff? Don’t we build things? Don’t we reach further? Don’t we inherently create?

A “money eating machine” has been created…and you live inside it.

It doesn’t need to be this way.

Get outside the box.

 

Angry-Gorilla

 

 

USD Reaches Tipping Point – Wake Up!

Forex Kong 14 Comments

You can remain focused on the “distractions” as Greece continues to take the headlines, or you can pull your head out of the sand and wake the f%k up.

USD is “make it or beak it here” so trades are locked and loaded….but I don’t pull triggers on Fridays.

Snippet from the members section:

We’d really be picking bottoms here as it’s “still” too early .

BUT.

Looking at a 5 minute chart of GBP/USD you’ll want to “at the bare minimum” see the 5 minute chart CLEARLY TRENDING UPWARD so….pull out to see att least a full 5-7 days of trading and plot the 200SMA to start.

You’ll want to see this turn “upward” regardless of the actual price level before entering.

Sure the level looks great “now” but from a safety perspective – let it start making “higher highs and higher lows” on this tiny time frame to even consider entry.

As it stands…the 5 min has yet to turn upward so…..consider how small / micro we are looking now.

I would rather see the 15 min “as well” th 1H trending higher before entry but…..we are getting very close to a point where “legging in” makes sense.

This can be reflected/applied against any USD related pair here, as we “hang” on the cusp of trend change.

Imagine hitting it on a 15 min time frame as still being “sooooo early” right?

No reason to enter here before the weekend. We’ll miss nothing.

 

Are you trading forex yet? Or are you getting completely smashed trying?

I figured.

Daily Forex Strategy – May 21, 2015

Forex Kong 1 Comment

This is a quick look at where I’m looking for my next trade entry.

This scenario suggests that USD has not yet found its intermediate term low, and that we’ll see another substantial leg down “first”.

USD_May_21_Forex_Kong

USD_May_21_Forex_Kong

On the flip-side USD breaks upward, breaking though the 50 SMA ( now clearly pointing lower ) and heads for the highs..only to stall out there and spend “eternity” flopping around at similar levels.

You’ll have to appreciate that all the fuss about Eur/Usd is just more “retail propaganda” manufactured by the financial / foreign exchange industry to have you trading the pair “thinking” you’ve got an edge or an advantage. These are the planets two most widely held “reserve currencies” and will always “flip and flop” based on simple market mechanics.

Pull a monthly chart of EUR/USD and realize the pair can trade in as wide a range as .40 cents! Without a single “meaningful repercussion” to either economy. There is no “fundamental reasons” to track the pair…..and I rarely trade it.

Retail flock to it….as the media would have you. Silly.

If USD turns “on cue” you’ll have to expect U.S Equities to do the same…. but then again….I’ve been saying that for a looooooong time now.

The “range grind” continues.

 

U.S Dollar To Bounce – Then Dive

Forex Kong Got something to say?

The U.S.D short’s have been amazing, and the profits are in the bank.

Several of the usual trolls lurking ’round Kong have been silenced, and the world is a beautiful place, with both The British Pound as well The Australian Dollar looking a little “top-heavy” here.

I expect a modest bounce in USD and in turn, a pullback in oil and commodity related names in general.

The stock market? You can have it. If waking up every single day to this endless back n forth / see-saw is your idea of a good time…..all power to you. Having “not paid attention to it has been one of the most liberating moves of this entire 2015.

Stocks are going nowhere. Nowhere this month, nowhere next month and then down for the forseeable future.

The US Dollar now at 4 month lows will pop for a small correction “upward” here –  then she’s all down hill.

 

Booking Forex Profits – Interstellar Seamstress Needed

Forex Kong 9 Comments

I’ve finally tracked down the few missing parts for the spaceship still parked on the rooftop, and plan on smuggling them out of Canada mid month June.

I’ve come in contact with some very “tech savvy Canucks” here as of late, and feel that lift off is now “imminent”.

Mrs. Kong has done a bang up job keeping the authorities at bay, as the craft itself has been difficult to disguise. The small crowds that gather out in the front yard have now been disbursed, thanks to a couple $20 Canadian Bills having been passed to my dear friends the “Policia”.

Oh how I love authority. Oh how I love the police. Such kind, warm-hearted gentleman – and only there to help.

Markets look like a runway. Flat as pancakes for you equity guys, while our short US Dollar trades add a whopping 10% over the past few weeks. Plan to book profits here again……and prepare for bounce/next leg down.

The next one takes equities with it.

The only missing piece now being these damn spacesuits. You know…..the moon landings back in the 60’s? Made of paper more or less – and wouldn’t have kept out a single ion of radiation ( of which space is filled ).

At least these days the technology exists. I’ve just got to track it down.

Book’em Dano!

Taking profits short USD today. Bounce then re enter short.

Placing “want ads” now – Interstellar Seamstress needed.

 

 

 

Don't Go Chasing Waterfalls – Well Maybe This One

Forex Kong 1 Comment

There is a potential USD breakdown in play here as we’ve been playing the short side lately – with great success.

Waiting for a bounce before re entering “short USD as well short risk in general” may not even be an option as USD pairs are moving fast and furious this morning.

You leg in……get a couple contracts here this morning long EUR, GBP short USD/CAD etc as to not miss potential “waterfalls” BUT…stay liquid enough to buy additional contracts “if” a bounce occurs over coming days. IT WON”T LAST LONG ENOUGH TO MATTER.

Average in for a medium term hold, or just a “great freakin trade” here short term.

Yellen openly suggests danger in equity prices………bubble popping time?

If you haven’t sold NetFlix by now……ugh.

Watch those little mining companies…lower USD means Gold and Silver UP.

 

 

 

Buy JPY – Don't Be A Complete Moron

Forex Kong 14 Comments

If you are only  “half a moron” O.K fine…….you’re allright.

But if you envision yourself as “full moron” well…….that’s your thing.

COMPLETE MORON…..and now I’m looking to punch you in the knee, spit in your ear, and very likely kick you in the face – as you flounder around…….. reaching for your retainer ( and your Ibankcoin log in info ).

This is truly “complete moron”.

You buy JPY here ( meaning you “short” JPY related pairs such as AUD/JPY etc..) and you go boat shopping.

You dump your winning trades NOW, and you get to cash NOW….you book profits NOW…you go boat shopping NOW!

For forex people….duuhh…short AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY,USD/JPY and every other JPY pair under the planet.

Abe won’t be thrilled.