It’s been my belief for some time now, that the eventual turn in markets will be sparked by news out of the EU. With Greece forgotten, Spain in the headlines only briefly, but now Italy getting some attention – it has become increasingly clear to me that things in the EU continue to deteriorate. The unemployment numbers out of all three of these countries are truly staggering….coupled with banking systems on the brink of collapse.
With the “fear machine” in full swing there in the Unites States – it makes even more sense to me, that risk coming out of Europe will be an easy “scape goat” for the rampid printing and spending coming out of Washington – pinning blame overseas and further justifying the cause.
As I understand it – The Unites States goes bust on March 27th (please correct me if I’m wrong) as the debt ceiling will yet again be breached – short of some type of “deal” out of Washington. This has gone past “hilarious” as even the American people are starting to figure it out. What perfect timing for a big “news flash” out of Europe – “EU Zone Threatens Recovery” or “Global Risk Appetite Wains On EU Fears”.
Regardless – all things considered we are getting much, much closer to the turn (mid March as previously suggested), and as the “media machines” start spinning their stories ( as to best keep U.S.A lookin good! ) we can add this to the growing list of things to consider.
I say – “EU Zone Catalyst and US Saves Face”
Are you playing this and if so how ?
I am currently still long Commods vs (as well USD/JPY) as the moves in “risk on” are more clearly seen here..
I am PATIENTLY waiting to enter the same vs USD but still don’t have it. I like to enter and see “green on my screen” immediatley.
I assume overnight/tomorrow….for entry short USD.
Hi Kong. Are you planning to go long commods vs usd now or wait for USD pullback to get long usd vs commods?
Nfxtrader.
See below. I will wait a “touch” longer for short USD – and even at that….see it as a quick trade on the “blow off top” – then…..oohh…likely gonna sit out and see what shakes out.
Thx Kong. I might try a few trades myself along the same path.
I suggest getting on on the commods vs Jpy anytime….and “waiting til the last second” on short USD.
I see the rollover happening now as seen in NZD/USD BUT – Trade within your means! No “betting the farm!”
If you are looking for Risk-On, why are you long commods versus USD and long USD/JPY? If there is some blow-up in Europe, the USD will rally against the commods and also Yen will rally more than USD. Just trying to understand the logic. Thank you.
Risk on = commods higher Alex against both JPY and USD.
Perhaps you haven’t read prior posts here as I expect “risk on” first – for a last run at the highs in SP 500 – then will be looking for the downside reversal to come.
Mr Kong
I have 100% of my assets invested in PMs (mainly gold, small platinum and silver). I invest in futures, so I am on margin, but the total value is 100% of my investible capital. So I have 90% sitting in cash, to either be used if called on for margin or do nothing. I do not want to invest this anywhere else (as then I would be over 100% invested), but am wondering what currency to keep my cash in. I am from the UK so I naturally keep in GBP, profits in PMs (if I get them would be in USD), so wondering if I should diversify my cash. I was thinking of holding a good portion of my cash in AUD or SGD. What would be your opinion as to where to keep spare cash?
Wow – all in on Pm’s margined and your savings in GBP. Tough question for me in that – If you currently live in a “GBP” environment then from a purely sensible day to day perspective – “having pounds” makes the most sense…..as you use this currency to buy food etc….
And as the GBP has taken a fair beating across the board as of late, I dare say – now isn’t the best of times to be considering “exchanging them”.
AUD has been a good bet for years now – but as my longer term charts suggest – it too is looking weak some months out, and I do expect it to be “sold along with risk” relatively soon.
I’d suggest sitting tight here in the immediate short term and expect to see your GBP take a decent bounce here. Looking longer term and considering our current “war like” environment – it’s very difficult to consider holding any one currency as the “winner in it all”. If you are of the belief that the U.S will succeed with it’s devaluation plan and that the USD will fall considerabely – your pounds just may be looking better than you think.
Hey Kong…. looking to confirm a bottom tech I am looking at…. I have bottom’s in nzdusd audusd & a top in usdcad all on the 27th feb….. wondering if I could get you point of view…
Thanks in advance schmed,
I like it.
Any chance dollar won’t participate in blow off top? Dollar pairs seems to be disconnected from stocks lately.
You are so right as the damn “short dollar long stocks” just keeps hanging there.
I still feel the USD needs to roll over here – just that (as usual actually) its doing it’s best to grind away