Can you imagine if a single Central Bank decided to buy or sell a single currency in “vast quantity” in a single hour of a single day….what that would do to the price?
Now consider if 5 Central Banks at once “all jumped on board” in a single hour to buy or sell a specific currency. Wow. talk about a huge spike no?
Currency markets don’t work that way as…..it takes weeks if not months for a single Central Bank to move “into a position” or “out of a position” without completely turning the market on its head by the sheer volume / impact of a trade of such size.
Take a look at AUD/USD:
aud_usd_forex_kong_2014-03-24
While small time retail investors figure “they’ve got things licked” buying AUD up from 88 area back in Feb, we can only assume that the big boys have been quietly selling / building short positions as we now near the wonderful “red line” – the 200 Day Simple Moving Average.
If the past is any indication of the future in “this specific example” ( as I’m not so much about the past ) I encourage you to keep your eyes peeled over the next few days.
Could it be that you are learning to trade like the big boys?
Oh….I thought not.
this makes sense but if past is any indication of the future then you can see the last time it touched the 200 moving average it just touched it and the great fall , but now its been stuck here for days ,, one can only assume that now governor of RBA on his speech sees this and bring this fucker down ,,
I’m not gonna get all “technical” on you Farhan (he he he he……) but today would be “the day” it’s touched so…..
For fun……lets watch and see.
I have learned a couple of things over the years….looking at the past is fine but…….
“depending on it” can only get you in trouble.
well its been to these levels before ,, would have missed the 200 SMA by few pips so its been here for some time now 😛
well not depending on it , as been in the trade long before the 200 SMA so gonna keep my patience and will wait and see .. 😛
This is the entire point of the post Farhan as…….we’ve long ago identified the “price level”.
BUT.
Time……needed to be respected as “only now” has the 200 SMA and current price “touched”.
If one could exercise the “ultimate in patience” it would only have been “today” that one might consider entry short…..all the while price meeting resistance at this level many times for “weeks” earlier.
I’ve still not found a way around “sideways” markets….but long ago traded in my hopes for “conviction”.
Price…..I’m fine.
Time???? – good luck to all.
Kong! Thanks for all the great commentary today. It was a little bit too quiet last week without you.
And hey, huge congratulations on the wedding news!
J
NZDJPY might actually be setting up for a correction! Such a tough one to take a position in for obvious reasons but I am sure once it unwinds it will be fast and furious because its it likely a pretty crowded trade.
Hey Dr. Kong…. congrats!!!
As for the Aud/Usd trade – I have a daily positive fire on day 2 now… we will see if this fire get’s reversed or breaks that 200-day ma & by how much before pulling back….
Cheers Schmed,