As I’m sure most of you know by now – I’m a space / astro biology / cosmology / physics buff.
Sometimes “looking at the big picture” is difficult for some, as we tend to get tied up with the “little things” in our daily lives, and particularly with trading. Every little squiggle holding such significance for some, but when put in perspective – really nothing more than a “small vibration” in the bigger picture.
Perhaps the following video will give you some perspective, where perspective is truly what’s needed.
Kong, now even a penis enlargement won’t boost my confidence! 😉
New week, same old BuyTheDip with zero fear.
Don’t know if you keep an eye on European Equity markets? Wow absolutely no pull back since last week and no indication of wanting to slowdown. If I am not mistaken, October 2014 lows for Dax was 8350? Today it is 12140 (as at time of writing), a rise of over 45% in 5 months! Madness!! This is Draghi’s Bazooka, he has always delivered in terms of getting the markets to do exactly what he so wished for even if the long term implications are atrocious for the real economy. You have to admire the man, he is doing his job well.
For a week in which the FED is expected to remove word, “patient”, US equities have started out like FED is about to start a new round of QE. Absolutely zero fear again.
Forget fundamentals, forget US debt (non event as limit will be upped), forget Greece (Eur falling is absolutely positive for Europe), it’s all buy buy buy. Yes, it will come to an end at some point but who on earth would want to get caught up shorting something like this, when was last time we saw a week of global risk off? Market madness can continue for months. You’ll go broke trying to call the top.
If the FED does not remove word “patients” this week, bears, get out of the way.
Don’t get me wrong Kong, I am in no way a permabull. I believe the moves of the past month, especially in Europe and Germany, have been short of ridiculous to a point of being extremely unhealthy but in this day and age, price is far more important than fundamentals. Fundamentals last mattered in 2008.
We now have a world full of cowardly politicians and even more cowardly CB’s who are lying through their teeth and doing anything just to keep their own legacy and political interest alive even though it may mean horrendous economic pain for the masses in the long term.
FED is now impotent, it can’t raise rates as it will hamper the prospective of economic recovery and send the US$ even higher. It can’t not raise rates as it’s been saying the economy is doing really well and the US is out of the worse. it’s own lies has hampered it.
Things could certainly go either way this week with SP 500 bouncing off the lower “upward trendline”.
Could push for a final high, or if we see a breakdown below the 2040 area then lower.
I’m inclined to think things push higher for a final daily cycle running into mid April.
Almost all economic figures out the US have missed. This will give credence for no rate rises or a piddly 0.25% at some point with statement, “now wait and see”. I think to really start an equities market sell off, we’d need to see a quarter of major earnings miss, provided people can see through the stock buy backs and other accounting trickery. or perhaps even a major US entity to file for near bankruptcy which may bring to the forefront the reporting shenanigans that has been taking place.
The economic/financial world is a mess, lots of imbalances, lots of issue issues but as long as the illusion can be continued, we will see risk continuing to rise with complete complacency.