Pontificate This – SP 500 Negative For 2015

Pon·tif·i·cate – To express one’s opinions in a way considered annoyingly pompous and dogmatic.

Nothing moves in a straight line forever, and anyone with an outwardly “bullish” standpoint has just seen their paper profits taken back to levels of mid November of 2014 – only in a matter of days.

Did you sell at the top? Ya……as I’ve suggested that “sideways” has been the markets direction for many months now – I guess you only need a couple of days like this to see things as they truly are.

Egomaniacs and emotional traders tied to the idea that “markets will do no wrong” now speechless as 4 months worth of “riding the bull train” sets them back to late 2014. Otta watch 4 months worth of paper profits go up in smoke in a matter of days.

Point being…….this market takes no prisoners as both bulls and bears have their day in the sun, with the advantage seen from either side being slight to non-existent for months now.

Don’t be a f%$kin baby. Don’t be a loud mouth either. Take your wins with humility and do us all a favor….

Feel free to take your losses in silence.

14 Responses

  1. Dress March 10, 2015 / 10:24 am

    Kong on a tear! 🙂

  2. David March 10, 2015 / 11:21 am

    Have you abandoned your thesis that the USD will sell-off along with Equities Kong? The dollar is on a tear lately and has been getting stronger when US stocks go down. This tends to be what usually happens and I know you were mentioning how this time it will be different.

    • Forex Kong March 10, 2015 / 12:28 pm

      Eventually….these two will “unite” on their path lower but man! USD strength ( which is really only a product of EUR weakness anyway ) has stuck.

      Watch for EUR to bottom, and you’ll obviously see USD move lower.

      Could be as early as “today”!

      • David March 10, 2015 / 12:36 pm

        I don’t know if I’d say USD strength is only a product of EUR weakness Kong. USD across the board is on a tear.

        Against EM currency we’re at or near records against the Mexican Peso, Turkish Lira, Brazilian Real and South African Rand. The Australian and New Zealand dollars are also weak today and the Pound is barely holding up, if we lose the 1.50 handle who knows how low it’ll go.

        Oh, and I can’t believe the USD / Swiss Franc is back at 1.0… that’s insane!

        • Forex Kong March 10, 2015 / 1:10 pm

          The CHF chart “is” insane as something can really be learned from this. Especially for short term traders.

          “Nothing” has changed in USD/CHF since The SNB lifted the peg. Nothing. Unreal.

          Now…….the rest of the currency world.

          MXN as well CAD are 100% oil related in my view so…..as nutty as some my think – commods up = USD down and both MXN and CAD making moves higher on higher oil? Hmmmm……..but I thought when oil moves higher so do U.S equities? Umm…..things have changed, as this is a “global indication” of dramatically slowing demand for oil.

          We can’t expect to have the usual forex correlations to remain in place forever as this is a currency war! And an economic war in general!

          AUD and NZD will always sell hard in the face of risk aversion.

          The big idea ( if the CB’s ever lose control / let go ) would have commods (gold and to a certain extent even oil) make asignificant move higher, while money moves out of equities / risk…and into the hard fast / solid rock commods.

          This could see USD move lower….as well U.S equities with Commodities the winner.

          Nuts perhaps……as this may also signal “world war / end times ” ( not really ) but….you know what I’m saying. It’s the product of CB’s losing their grip, and if you ask me…..with respect to this ridiculous ECB debacle. We can’t be too far off.

      • David March 11, 2015 / 10:08 am

        There goes the GBP 1.50 handle, it’s falling like a rock now (1.4930 now). The only thing near-term I can see that will derail the USD rally is if the FED does not drop the word “Patience” in reference to rate hikes next week.

        • Forex Kong March 11, 2015 / 10:10 am

          yup…..I’m out of any and all USD related trades and just hanging on to the short AUD and NZD vs JPY here.

  3. mark cooper March 10, 2015 / 5:16 pm

    I love to read what you have to say kong. And usually the tone of your “pontifications” is a sign of things going or not going your way. The problem with the way you see things, in my opinion, is that too many see it that way and , well, when the ship gets lopsided the market takes advantage of it and swings it back. But keep up the doodling and sharing, like I said, I love to read your pontifications…

  4. madness March 11, 2015 / 7:45 am

    I think the notion of CB’s losing control is a long way-a-way. They have the resources to hide any mishaps for a long while longer.

    It is my honest belief that that the banks and major financial trading institutions have no interest in wanting to challenge the CB’s. Why would they? If it wasn’t for the covert activities and help of the CB’s in 2008, all the big banks would have been insolvent. I believe the big banks still are insolvent (as borne out by the fact they still do not mark-to-market their toxic assets). In return for all the favors the CB’s granted them, and continue to grant them, the banks simply stated they would not sell anything that could cause a lost of faith in the system. Think of that what you may!

    As far as EU equities are concerned, Draghi’s QE has been a godsend. Look at Dax – up almost 25% this year and no signs of slowing down. As EUR keeps plummeting, EU firms not only have advantage of a lower EUR but also “free” QE money. Now beginning to hear reports that Dax may rise another 70% in the next 18 months based on FX and QE alone.

    EU QE has definitely met it’s objective of lowering the EUR exchange rate this week. What will/can the US do to reign in the US$ strength? Even if they do not raise rates in the next few months, the yield advantage over other countries is increasing. Short of lowering rates, which it can’t do or more QE, which they currently can’t justify, what can they do to stop the US$ from powering ahead? Any geopolitical event will drive up US$ as a risk asset?

    With Eur droping as hard and as fast as it has, I am expecting BOJ to come out and add even more to the foolishness as I doubt they are too happy with the EURJPY rate either.

    Interesting times indeed.

  5. David March 11, 2015 / 3:08 pm

    I’m calling the “TOP” in USD. Going with the Weekly DXY chart, it looks like we’re in the 5th and final wave. There is nothing but exuberance, “Parity” with EURO seems to be a matter of days away. Everyone and their mother is bullish USD. Hell, even KONG is out of all USD related trades. All the ingredients of a final bout of strength is in.

    Fundamentally, if the FED does not remove “Patience”, we’ll have the spark that lights the fire to bring down the house of USD.

    DXY around 100, I say we go 102.50 max. We just might not hit that 1.05 EUR/USD (we were a dozen pips shy earlier), which is where I lot of people want to exit shorts and/or get long. If we do breach (probably a spike in the Asian session), I think 1.0250 could be in the cards before a massive short squeeze higher in EUR/USD.

    • Benno March 11, 2015 / 7:34 pm

      No matter what the Fed does with their dainty little statements, they aren’t going to raise rates until Obama leaves office. That was conditional upon Yellen getting appointed by Obama. He has highly controversial things to accomplish that require financial calm. Yellen needs permission to act. She doesn’t have it. Biggest control freak administration in US history, you think the Fed will be allowed to move? No rate hikes until 2017 at a minimum.

      • Forex Kong March 11, 2015 / 8:57 pm

        I’m with you there.

        After some debate, and now seeing the “full desperation” of CB’s to keep this thing on the rails….it’s hard to imagine rate hikes coming from The U.S short of some “silly little .25 point” somewhere along the line.

        And ya….. Obama has a country to ruin and only so much time left.

        Keep the masses calm.

  6. mark March 11, 2015 / 9:58 pm

    conspiracy theorists. lol

    • Forex Kong March 11, 2015 / 11:05 pm

      Where’s the conspiracy Mark?

      I assume you are an American….I for one would love to see / read / hear a long list of what you “think” is going on.

      Obama is treating you well? Really?

      That would be the first I’ve heard of it.

      Please….expand.

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