Author: Forex Kong

Forex Analysts – What's With The Suits And Ties?

Forex Kong 10 Comments

I’ve spent some time poking around the forex / financial blogosphere this morning, eyeing up the competition, looking to see what “everybody else” has got to say.

The one thing that jumped out at me immediately (aside from the completely boring and lifeless reiteration of the same levels / numbers/ line over and over again) was the ridiculous number of these fellows all dressed up in suits and ties!

Is it a credibility thing? Are successful forex traders all supposed to look like “carbon copy pencil pushers wearing radio shack suits?”

A forex “analyst” is most certainly not a forex “trader” and I think it’s important to draw the distinction as……until you’ve fallen into the belly of the beast and wrestled “your own” physcology….until you’ve conquered both greed  and fear with your stomach in knots for days on end.Until you’ve contemplated “flipping burgers at McDonald’s” short of grinding out that next turn.

Until you’ve lost nearly  “anything and everything” that was ever important to you – in the pursuit of greatness…..

You can keep your desk job bro. Pacing your cubicle working for pennies, drawing horizontal lines and charts for your boss…

You “are not” a trader.

 

 

 

China Leaders Meet – Huge Reforms Expected

Forex Kong 7 Comments

President Xi Jinping is expected to unveil a new economic framework for the country after the “The Third Plenum” (simply the third time that Xi Jinping will meet with his top brass in his role as the party chairman) wrapping up on the 12th.

Traditionally reforms are expected at the Third Plenum, with new leaders  having had time to consolidate power. A senior Chinese official has already promised “unprecedented” reforms.

Xi Jinping is under tremendous pressure from many parts of Chinese society to unveil radical changes so  – alot rides on the outcome.

We all know how significant a role China currently plays on the world stage with respect to it’s economic importance and influence on the U.S.A. Large reforms in the banking sector or increased suggestion of “tightening” can and “will” have significant impact on global markets so…..whatever you “think” you hear next week on CNN don’t be fooled.

China will move the markets, as continued coverage of “locker room bullying” takes a back seat.

Shoot me now,  as I’m not sure if I can hang on another day. CNN has the “battle of the burgers” and “locker room bullying” rounding out the top stories of the day.

Trade Alert! – Tech Signals Short

Forex Kong 20 Comments

Trade Alert For Monday November 11, 2013

I want to thank Gary and the group at Dumb Money Tracker for the consistant flow of new users / followers here at Forex Kong! Hopefully some of you still maintain a small chance of “seeing the light” or possibly even making some money with some sound trade suggestions!

Thanks guys!

The Kongdicator has “finally” issued a formal signal on the Nazdaq that would have entry approx 4 hours from now so…..Monday will certainly do.

The entry signal is “short” people, so to be clear – I will consider “selling” not “buying”. This is fantastic news really, as this “melt up” has been a long and drawn out affair, and has kept alot of people “out of the trade”.

I will be looking for significant strength in JPY as well as we “should” likely see “risk” sell – along with tech stocks. When risk sells off money floods back into Yen as we’ve discussed here a million times over.

There are plenty of ways for stock traders to take advantage of this also….and perhaps over the weekend “we can all chip in” and post / comment to put some creative ideas on the table.

I generally don’t enter markets on Sunday night / Monday morning so…take my advice…let this play out through the day Monday and have a look at the close.

Getting ahead on this and doing some solid research over the weekend could be a very valuable exercise for many of you, as you already know…

“I’m very often early…and rarely ever late.”

6% And I'm Out – Holiday Time

Forex Kong 2 Comments

I’ve used this mornings jump in USD to exit every single trade I’ve had open for 6% on the week.

I’m also having computer trouble here so the timing couldn’t be better. It’s Friday and it looks like another beautiful day here so…..I’m planning to just get outside and leave this rats nest to the rest of you.

At least for a couple hours here this morning.

Investors – I Know You Can Do It

Forex Kong 6 Comments

I’m not sure that most people reading here ( and I must say….thank you all again for reading here ) truly grasp the amount of time and effort needed – in order to “truly” succeed at this.

To be honest ……for anyone “casually checking in” on the news and their current holdings, solely on a daily basis (or even bi daily basis) I imagine that for most part…….you’re not having much luck.

Completely understandable as……..this is a very difficult market to navigate. Such that many of you may just be checking up on my trade ideas and posts…only to find that I’ve already moved on – a day or two later.

For the trader types…fine – you’ve got the time/energy/interest to keep up, and do what you can to fight this thing. Great.

It’s the investor types that worry me the most as…….I’m only doing what I know how to do to survive here. Applying my trade /knowledge/skill after many, many, many years of painstaking work and commitment.

I don’t “choose” the way these markets behave, and do wish things where different.

Investing is not an option here, so you may have to dig a little deeper.

You’ve been through wars, raised children on nothin and built countries from the ground up so….

I know you can do this.

My Long Term Trade Strategy – Confirmed

Forex Kong 32 Comments

You’ve all heard me say it before, and I’ll say it again….

I am “short” humanity  – and “long” interplanetary space travel.

With respect to the “rampid stupidity” playing out via the Twitter I.P.O this morning, I’ve had further confirmation that the “buy n hold strategy” short humanity should do well.

What the hell is the matter with you people?

I’d give my left arm to know the exact number of people who “bought at 50″ only to see it at 45 minutes later….let alone where it will be in the weeks to come.

But wait…..”you screwed up” the buy price…and now plan to “nail an exit”?? You are a complete and total loser.

I have to get the f^$k out of here pronto…as  – I’ve pretty much lost all faith.

The spaceship is coming along but I’m still getting heat from the local authorities. Now a couple of the local “policia” are requesting I add a couple more seats for them.

P.S – they didn’t buy twitter at 50.

Forex Trade Strategy – Thursday Is A Mover

Forex Kong 20 Comments

So here we find ourselves up bright and early, with the birds chirping, and the palms rustling in the cool ocean breeze. It a beautiful morning here as the sun has just poked its head out – casting a “pinky blue” blanket across the sky. Truly heaven on Earth.

But – Hell in markets!

We’ve got the ECB announcement in 15 minutes which ( regardless of what you are lead to believe ) has much larger implications / market moving potential than any of the usual “phony numbers” on U.S employement – also scheduled an hour or so later.

The European Central Bank ( after the “supposed recovery” – ya right! ) is now considering some form of monetary easing of its own as the recent rise in EUR/USD has hampered growth/exports etc….

If by the odd chance The ECB “does” announce motions to ease ( or perhaps issues forward guidance to telegraph such a move ) watch USD shoot further for the moon , and the EUR to tank.

I’m adding long USD in and around the announcement.

Is Twitter The Top? – I.P.O or P.O.S?

Forex Kong 13 Comments

You know…….If I was currently the CEO of one of the largest social media sites on the planet, I’d likely want to take my company public too. I mean why not right? You and your original investor base, board of directors, underwriters/bankers , family and friends, all made “multi millionaires” – practically overnight.

It’s a fantastic achievement, and an incredible opportunity for those so fortunate as to take advantage. During the internet craze of 2000 I too was encouraged to take my company public – but just couldn’t get through the paperwork / logistics etc…..

So here we are on the cusp of yet another “awesome internet offering” at a time / place where I for one am just a “tiny bit skeptical”.

Twitter has yet to turn a profit.

Of course I understand the model / internet / eyeballs / projections etc……but to be frank, and as an investor – the company evaluation looking like 23 – 25 dollars per share. No profits.

Could these guys be “even smarter” than you think?

Could Twitter’s I.P.O mark the top?

Food for thought people………I’m not involved.

Open’s 25 rips to 40…….then tanks to 12.50?

Sounds about right to me.

 

 

TLT Getting Crushed – 10 Yr Yield Rising

Forex Kong 21 Comments

The symbol “TLT” which tracks the value of the “U.S Treasury 10 year bond price” has  “firmly been rejected” at a very strong level of resistance around 107.50 and continues to fall – now at 105.06

When “bond prices fall” ( the price at which you purchase the paper ) in turn “bond yields rise” ( the rate of interest paid out on the bond ) – as simple mechanics of how the bond market works.

When we see bond “yields rise” and “bond prices” fall, we better understand why the Fed currently buys around 85% of the new debt issued by the Treasury, as “if they didn’t” – bond prices would crater, and the rate of interest owed would skyrocket crushing the U.S under the “already unsustainable” debt load / interest payments.

We saw Greek bond yields move upward in the neighborhood of 27% to up to 48% during the crisis,  signalling to the world that in order to “encourage investment in their country” bond holders would require this kind of payout.

This kind of rise in bond yields is a massive forward indicator that ” a country is in real trouble” as sellers dump like mad – and bond yields shoot for the moon.

Always ALWAYS keep your eyes on the bond market for signals of larger moves to come.

The Art Of Re Entry – Directly Into Profit

Forex Kong 8 Comments

Often “re-entry”  into a trade where you’ve already taken profits, can be a little tricky. Questions arise such as “gees – is this move over already “? or “man…..not sure this is the right level, perhaps it’s gonna pullback a little further “.

Aside from years of experience , practice and application, as well a fine tuned short-term trade technology / indicator – there really is no easy answer.

If you’ve been viewing charts for as long as I have, and enjoy the “geometry and math” that goes along with it- often these little “areas for re-entry” just come jumping off the screen.

It takes time, and it takes a considerable amount of trial and error in order to hone “some kind of strategy” that gives you a tiny glimmer of hope – in navigating the short-term time frames / noise that goes along with them.

A couple of other hints:

  • I don’t really believe there is much need to get any smaller than the 1H chart (coupled with the 15 minute chart).
  • If you consider that a 5 minute chart can move from overbought to oversold every couple of hours or less – there is really no solid indication as to “what level to enter” as…it’s really just noise.
  • With whatever technical indicators you use ( RSI, MACD, Bollinger Bands, Stocs , MA Crosses ) consider placing orders “above / below” current price action when your signal is met – and allow the price to “move towards you” as further confirmation.
  • Take the time to place several smaller orders ( in the direction of the original trade ) and let momentum ( if in fact you are correct ) pick up your orders “as price moves towards you”.
  • Smile and laugh when you get it completely wrong (and price “shoots off” in the opposite direction) as  – you don’t have a position! You’ve done something right!

With these simple things in mind, get back to the charts, consider my tweet and subsequent “re-entry across the board”.

See if you find anything useful as…..every single trade entered this morning has moved directly into profit.