Author: Forex Kong

Bulls And Bears Make Money – Gorillas Make More

Forex Kong 3 Comments

People say to me……. ” Ya ya Kong… you with all your “macro mumbo jumbo” ( yada, yada, yada ).

Damn it Kong! Just gimme a break, and tell me how to make some money today! I want to get rich today Kong! Today!

Well…..

Short term traders need to learn a little more patience, while long-term investors need to get “a little more involved” with the day-to-day action no? The age-old sayings “you can’t have everything” or perhaps “the grass is always greener” certainly come to mind.

The entire concept / principals of “trading like a gorilla” wedges us “in between”, taking advantage of “all opportunities” regardless of what markets do cuz……(guess what??) MARKETS ARE GOING TO DO WHAT THEY ARE GOING TO DO NO MATTER WHAT!

We certainly can’t control that.

So let’s take a quick look at today…..and consider that U.S equities rallied I dunno…..like “to the moon” in a single afternoon! To the moon Kong! The moon you ass! Everything is going up ! Up! Up! Damn you Kong! I just want to get rich and go live on a beach! What the hell is going on down there? I need to get rich! Now!

He he he……Everyone needs to just calm down, take a deep breath, understand that it’s just another day and take it for what it is.

Start looking “ahead” as opposed to “dealing with the present” and things will get a lot easier.

For some it might be interesting to note – I sold out this morning well early and in advance of this “massive run up in risk assets” missing what some might imagine as “an incredible opportunity to make money” though oddly…….every single thing I track / monitor suggests that I didn’t miss a thing.

If you where fortunate enough to “pick a stock” and take advantage of this short covering rally I commend you although – we all know what really happened today.

Bulls and bears both got taken to the cleaners.

Trade Plans – Moving Faster Than Can Be

Forex Kong 3 Comments

I’ve taken profits “again” here this morning on anything and everything related to the U.S dollar as well “risk” in general. It’s been a touch frustrating spending this last week “toiling away” under the daily barrage of headlines coming out of Washington, and as the days wind down to the “ultimate stand-off” on raising the debt ceiling limit – the likelihood of resolution increases.

These buffoons can’t possibly be so stupid as to actually risk default, and yet another damaging ( if not killer ) blow to American credibility on the world stage. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen anything more embarrassing for a country’s government, as daily news “across the entire planet” has this “top of the list” of blunders – LET ALONE THAT IT’S 100% COMPLETELY SELF IMPOSED!

It won’t be war, and it won’t be terrorism oh no…no natural disaster or alien invasion will do it nope. The American government can just step right up and get the job done itself. Absolutely unreal.

Trade wise….there is no doubt the media / Wall Street will “rejoice” a resolution, and rejoice in the knowledge that the ponzi scheme is safe and sound for another couple of months.

Commodity related currencies have traded flat as pancakes, GBP has pulled back,  and for the most part its been a complete “ghost town” out there leading up to this trainwreck completing.

I’m up 3% and back on the sidelines – waiting a day or two to see how things shake out, looking to take a shot at the “pop” on resolution. Then “back with the bears” into the new year.

Gold Priced In USD – Invest Don't Trade

Forex Kong 5 Comments

It remains to be seen as to what kind of “legs” this USD rally may have, and it’s implications with respect to the price of gold.

We’ve been over the “theory” as to why the Fed would prefer a lower price in gold as the US Dollar devaluation continues, but of course that’s all it’s been – theory. I fully understand the “short selling” in the paper market by Ben’s friends on the street, but to consider some kind of “global conspiracy” to keep the price “in line” with a sliding US Dollar would be a stretch for sure.

Looking at recent price movement we are “once again” in a position where both the U.S Dollar as well as gold have been falling together ( more or less ) where as just today, a decent “inverse” move with the dollar up and gold down another 17 bucks.

The analogy of “turning around a big cruise ship” as opposed to a motor boat comes to mind in that….these things play out day-to-day but are really moving on a much larger scale over a much longer period of time – and it does take time to turn that ship around. More time than most traders can bear.

It’s my view that anyone “building positions” in the precious metals around this area of price and time ( and lower ) shouldn’t really get into “to much trouble” looking longer term. It’s certainly not a trade, and it’s a big, big boat to turn so….weather or not you can take/manage the drawdown and slug it out is always a matter of ones personal trading / account / exposure / leverage etc…

Looking at specific “price levels” in an attempt to “nail it” on an asset worth 1300.00 bucks is a fools game, as fluxuation’s of 50 bucks here and there would apear normal ( % wise ) when trading “anything” of lesser value.

Hang in there is about all you can do.

2014 – You Will Never Trade It

Forex Kong 6 Comments

Ironically ( and in light of yesterday’s post “seen here first” ) overnight, both China and Japan have now publicly warned that the U.S better get its act together pronto.

As well (and again, I’ve got no crystal ball down here….only Mayan Shamans) The IMF (The International Monetary Fund) has now released the following:

“World growth will be slower than expected this year and next, and will take another big hit if the U.S. fails to resolve its debt drama, the International Monetary Fund warned Tuesday”.

“The IMF cut its 2013 global growth forecast by 0.3% to 2.9%.”

In other news ( not like you’ll see it on your local T.V ) China’s growth forecasts “specifically” have also been reduced.

Getting the message anyone????

Are you getting the message?

Zoom out and take a look at the next couple years, pull out your tin foil hats and get your shopping carts tuned up. 5 years worth of incessant money printing / stimulus, stocks “inflated beyond belief” and NO RECOVERY!

The normal business cycle ( which has been the same for generations ) has been stretched ,pulled , manipulated , extended “past” what we’d normally call “normal” and it’s time my friends……it’s time to get real.

I’m open to discussion as to “what the hell” to do about it, but the bottom line is – silver clouds / hope / faith / positivity / good attitude doesn’t pay the bills.

Start thinking “seriously” as to where you can look to tighten.

For your reading pleasure: https://forexkong.com/2013/01/31/2013-you-will-never-trade-it/

Safe Haven Trade – USD Or Gold?

Forex Kong 5 Comments

Something important came up in the comments area last night, and I thought it worth pointing out.

When we consider the impact of a “flight to safety” ie…….a move in markets where “true fear” pushes investors to dump risky assets ( and to literally….seek safety ) it’s impossible not to consider the U.S Dollar as being “top of the list” as the place to run and hide.

Now, this may seem “counter – intuitive” considering the recent ( and ongoing ) blunders within the Unites States but – that’s not even the point. Take a look at the chart below and note the total % of global currency trading for the top 10 most widely traded currencies in 2013.

Trade_Currencies_Global_Forex_Kong

Trade_Currencies_Global_Forex_Kong

That’s 87% of transactions to include the U.S Dollar, compared to a piddly 33.4% for Euro and only 23% in JPY rounding out the top 3.

As a simple matter of “default” when risk comes off and investors get scared – there is absolutely no question that USD will take massive in flows, as risk is unwound and risky assets and investments in emerging markets are converted “back” to USD.

Now, we’ve still not seen a “true flight to safety” as global markets have so embraced the never-ending flow of “free money” coming out of both the U.S as well Japan – with the general investment climate being one of accommodation. This can’t last forever.

You’ll recall I had envisioned a time where “all things U.S would be sold” and to a certain degree I see that this has already happened. Starting with bonds ( as suggested ) then the currency, and lastly ( alllllways lastly ) stocks now starting to show their “true value”.

I’m not concerned with much further “downside” in USD at this point, as one has to keep a couple other “macro” things in mind.

How long do you think the Chinese and Japanese holders of American debt are looking to stand around and watch their U.S denominated assets decrease in value? How far do you “really” think that Ben and the printing presses can push before somebody “really” pushes back?

Food for thought no?

Macro Intermarket Analysis – Stocks, Gold, Risk And All

Forex Kong 4 Comments

My feelings are that…..we’ve reached a major low in the U.S Dollar.

With this in mind, some major “MAJOR” questions come to mind as to the near term direction in markets, but much more importantly – the longer term view.

U.S equities have been stretched “beyond stretched” on the seemingly never-ending “Fed pump” but as we’ve seen recently – are most certainly showing the “final signs” of exhaustion.

What happens in the next two weeks is 100% completely irrelevant as to the forward direction of markets.

My take is…….we’ll see “some kind” of relief rally in risk, when the U.S finally get’s its act together ( if you can even call it that ) – but that’s all it’s gonna be. A relief rally.

If “incredibly” equities stretch to make a “higher high” ( which I seriously doubt but don’t rule out ) it will be “blow off” in nature and extremely short lived. New retail investors will undoubtly believe that “all has been saved” and buy the top with reckless abandon – as Wall Street hands off the bag.

We know interest rates can “go no lower” so……anyone with half a brain in their head should recognize –  we are entering a time of contraction – not expansion!

Quietly, behind the scenes several other countries are already “hinting” at possible rate hikes ( Great Britian as well as New Zealand) as the writing is cleary on the wall. The big boys are preparing……as it’s now painfully clear that the U.S.A money printing efforts have done nothing to bolster a “true recovery”, and that the U.S government itself….is in no position to “govern” much.

What we are seeing unfold is a considerable shift in “investor sentiment” – and sentiment drives markets. People are now losing faith that “even the never ending printing / easing” can pull the U.S out of it’s current downward spiral.

I feel very stongly that at “some point” the Fed will print more – but the kicker will be…the markets just won’t buy it.

Charts and more in part 2.

Forex Trading – 05 October, 2013

Forex Kong Got something to say?

Forex Trading – 05 October, 2013 

So what’s the significance of trading forex on October 05 2013?

Nothing really. Zip. Nada. Just another day of the week really ( all be it a Saturday ) but, I guess that’s the point really. It’s just another day.

When you take a step back and consider the actual “on the street” exchange rate of any two given currencies ( EUR / USD for example ) and their fluctuation during a “single given day of trading” you’ve really got to ask yourself…..

What can the movement of 9/10th’s of  a cent ( within a 24 hour period ) possibly suggest in any “fundamental sense”?

Taking a single day’s trading into consideration – has global trade come unbalanced? Have you cancelled your vacation to Mexico, now knowing your hotel might cost and additional 22 Euros?

Of course not.

The forex market is so grossly leveraged that traders lose sight of the basic reality of it all……..the fundamentals. Would a “massive move of 500 pips” seriously change the future of global trade between the U.S and Europe?

Not in the slightest.

Trading forex as of October 05 , 2013 is no different than trading any other day of the year – “IF” you’ve got a grasp on the fundamentals.

The day to day is  noise…..just noise.

Get The Trades Via Twitter – And Comments

Forex Kong 10 Comments

A really nice spike in the U.S dollar today ( considering I’ve been long for days now ) with several trades paying off well. As well (specifically) foreseen weakness in GBP coming to fruition here overnight. I invite anyone who isn’t already following on twitter or “the comments section” here at the blog to join/follow as there are lots of great info from other traders here as well.

It’s been interesting to see this move higher in USD in line with “risk on” activity in markets today but then again not so unusual. We’ve seen equities and USD running in tandem several times over the past few months as hot money from Japan is converted in / and out of US in order to buy and sell stocks.

THERE HAS STILL BEEN NO REAL MOVE TOWARDS SAFETY.

Glad it’s the weekend here as I’ll be diving / snorkeling. Have a great weekend everyone!

I Read Dr. Paul Roberts – Credibility Beyond

Forex Kong 2 Comments

While “penning” the previous post I looked to my girlfriend for a bit of advice.

On occasion it’s been suggested here at the blog that I try to “lighten up a bit” and perhaps try to stay “a bit more positive”. With this in mind, I feel that several months have gone by where my writing in general has been at least “moderately up beat”, and that I’ve done a “reasonable job” as to not get “too down” on any one thing in particular.

I don’t think it’s a secret for anyone reading here, that I struggle with the situation in the United States. I got involved with Forex as to my interests in “all things global” and in this case how “money” plays a role. The fact that the United States holds the world’s “current” reserve currency presents me with a bit of a conundrum as I’m not particularly interested in “American culture”.

Not to say it’s not great, only that – for me…….I would far rather “Bolivia” had reserve status as I could at least “learn something new ” here day to day.

I find the day-to-day situation in the U.S as the number one element in trading forex, that I would much rather “do without”. It’s not interesting and it’s certainly not “fun”. It can’t be ignored mind you – but it’s certainly a drag.

My girlfriend suggested that I “go easy” and of course  – respect the valued readers that take the time to show their support here at the blog and…….yes of course, I truly DO value the readership and by no means want to “get down” on the U.S.

Then it occurred to me….perhaps I should introduce readers to one of the few “other people” I actually take the time to read. I showed Laura. She changed her tune.

Ladies and gentleman I am proud to introduce the critically acclaimed Dr. Paul Roberts.

http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/pages/about-paul-craig-roberts/

If you think I might consider biting my tongue on occasion ( likely never gonna happen) I encourage you to not only read but BOOKMARK Dr. Roberts home page, as President Reagan appointed Dr. Roberts Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy, not to mention his time as associate editor and columnist for The Wall Street Journal.

Dr Roberts “has” the credibility to back such strong opinions.

Me I’m just a gorilla.

Kong Weighs In – The American Ponzi Continues

Forex Kong 4 Comments

It absolutely pains me to no end,  but (as the planet’s financial blog space  is currently “a fire with debate”) I guess I should at least “weigh in” on the debt ceiling issue – and the consideration of a U.S default.

This most certainly IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN!

These bozos have sunk “gazillions of dollars” into this “pseudo recovery” driving their currency into the ground. They’ve attempted to start wars , cleaned out retirement savings accounts and spent more time in bed with the “boys on wall street” than the average Ukrainian hooker living in NY.

There is not a single chance in hell they would jeopardize “what’s already hanging by a thread” over some little “tug of war” over a couple more 1’s and 0’s. Impossible.

Of all things they can ( and will ) continue to screw up – any “further knock to the credibility of the U.S” and it’s currency / ability to pay its bills IS NOT ONE OF THEM.

You see – as sad a state of affairs it is in the U.S ( domestically speaking ) the “global situation” has deteriorated far worse. The bond auction hall is empty (short of Ben and his “magic suit case”) and countries “planet wide” have been diversifying “out” of US Dollar reserves on a scale not seen before in the history of man.

The “Petro Dollar” at risk , the East growing stronger by the day…….now’s not the time for something so “meaningless” to make any larger a fool of the U.S.

Wasn’t Syria enough?

The entire planet stands to benefit from the continuation of the “American Ponzi Scheme” , so be assured –  those so close to the action won’t be letting it slide any time soon.