Author: Forex Kong

If You Can't Trade It – Blog It

Forex Kong Got something to say?

I’ve been in and out all day, and again return to my computer – only to find the same. It’s a freakin gong show out there! So if I can’t trade it – I might as well blog about it.

One of the most popular articles I’ve written “2013 – You Will Never Trade It” comes to mind.

The markets have more or less been grinding up a day, down a day for the past 2 weeks – and the direction continues to be questioned. Granted the overall trend is still up, but we’ve seen some relative short-term damage – and many factors have come in to play to suggest a correction is needed. The last week has had the Canadian “TSX” erase the entire 2013 gains to date, “Bank of Japan” has now become a household term ( a little late considering we’ve been talking about it forever) , and earnings are set to kick off with Alcoa after the close today.

If there was ever a time that one would be thankful to be safely sitting in cash – I’d say this it.

I made out like a bandit on the huge JPY slide over the past few months but admittedly – have 100% completely missed the latest ( and most massive ) move. It’s too bad – but its a part of trading, and so is life.

Forex has a funny way of “kicking your ass” so….when anything has travelled so far/so fast – you really can’t go chasing it. You get back at it….you apply what you know – and you find the next trade.

As it stands….and as boring a read as it may be for you guys – I still sit (for the most part) 100% in cash….taking the odd “little trade” here and there to keep the moss from growing.

Be safe – and don’t worry – things will get really, really exciting here soon.

This I can promise.

 

Trade or Invest – Things To Think About

Forex Kong 12 Comments

It’s crazy out there.

Currencies are literally “all over the map” with several of the usual correlations giving traders/analysts a good run for their money. Eur up and stocks down, continued JPY strength in the face of risk aversion, and the British Pound (GBP) on a tear.

In equities the transports ($tran)  have taken it on the chin, with Fed EX pummelled over last several days, and the massive market leader APPL having  lost 200 billion in market cap. 200 billion! – Poof…gone.

Earnings will likely disappoint, we’ve got seasonal selling ahead (“sell in may?”), tensions in North Korea moving higher, terrible employment numbers (again) in the U.S , and of course –  and any number of “unforseen events” far more likely bad than good.

So…..Is it a dip or a turn?

Time to trade or invest?

I’ll have to leave it up to you decide the best course of action, as you’ve all seen my charts and read my views. Regardless of any short-term action ( as the possibility of another “pop higher” in risk  always remains ) seriously….

If a broker/trader  hasn’t picked a top, or the area to sell and book profits – what possibly likelihood would there be in timing a “scoop buy / dip” for a few more points?

For the most part – by the time retail is convinced the water’s are safe, the move has already passed – and you’re once again caught……buying the top.

Give In To Mother Market – She Always Wins

Forex Kong 5 Comments

To tell you the truth – I’m a little frustrated with you. Ya’ know…….

I’ve written the articles. I’ve posted the charts.  I’ve outlined the underlaying factors, and have even gone as far as to suggest effective methods of protection – should things go South.

But you don’t listen. You don’t care.

You’ve got it in your head that “everything’s gonna be fine” and “scoff” at suggestion to the contrary.

You refuse to consider the fact that you’re not in control, you don’t have the answers, it’s bigger than you, stronger than you, wider than you. You can’t accept the fact that if you don’t make a decision fast……this thing is gonna crush you like a bug.

Well……news for you my friend….welcome to the club!

You don’t think I feel the same? You don’t think I question the same?

Give in to mother market ma man….. cuz she always wins. ……….She always wins!

Best advice I could give…………get to cash.

Stop worrying about the “returns you’re getting”. Aleve the pressure and do some math. Consider 6 months to a year with no exposure to the market –  and the amount of money you’d of made…..or more importantly ……the amount of money you’d have lost. It’s just not worth it.

This is a top not a bottom. I can assure you – you won’t miss a thing.

Discipline – The Trade That Got Away

Forex Kong 4 Comments

I want to continue with my trades long JPY.

I want to place these trades (a few short pips underneath current price action) in currency pairs such as EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY. I want to get short NZD/JPY as well AUD/JPY not to mention CAD/JPY. I want to push a bunch of buttons. I want to enter a bunch of orders. I want to do it right this second! Right here! Right now! My god let’s do it! Do it! DO IT!

But no……….I can’t.

I’ve got patience. I’ve got trade rules. I’ve got plans.

I’ve got millions of trade opportunities in front of me, and a lifetime of trades –  lying in wait.

Most importantly of all. I’ve got discipline.

I’ll sit tight here a while longer and see how things shape up come London open. Frankly, I’m not satisfied with this correction in Nikkei and JPY and still feel there is further downside in risk. I still have reservations about taking positions of any reasonable size so will stick to my guns….and stay on the sidelines.

 

Kong Makes A Move – IBankCoin.com

Forex Kong 5 Comments

If you’re seeking incredible trade advice and stock market commentary but haven’t already visited / joined the gang at http://www.ibankcoin.com  (although I’d find it hard to believe – considering how popular they are) you can now get your fill of  “yours truly”  there as well.

I am honored to now take part – and contribute what I can, along side this talented group of traders.

I look forward to seeing you all at Ibank – and will continue in “Kong like fashion” to trade what I see, and tell it like it is.

I’m sure we can all learn alot – not to mention make an awful lot of money.

Kong…gone.

Nikkei Weekly – One Ugly Candle

Forex Kong 5 Comments

I’m gonna make this quick as to get something else posted here before this site turns into a soapbox.

As per suggestion some days ago – the Japanese stock market has most certainly “corrected”. Unfortunately I got cold feet before the weekend and trimmed my positions considerably – only banking an addition 2-3% as opposed to the amount needed to purchase the yacht I’ve had my eye on. These things happen, – and I am no worse for it. Shoulda , coulda , woulda has no place in my trading, as the opportunities continue to present themselves in bountiful fashion.

I will sit patiently throughout the day, and allow volume to pick up from the “anemic state” we’ve floundered in over the past week. I’m not exactly sure where the hell everyone went – but assume “running with bunnies” and “gargling chocolate”  may have been on the list of activities.

In light of the sell off overseas – and its implications with respect to “risk aversion” – all is unfolding exactly as planned.

Come closer little rabbit – I’ve got some stocks I’d love to sell you here, come closer…a little closer…that’s right – just a little closer  – BAM!

Im 100% cash yet again – with orders in place “should JPY continue higher”.

 

Keep An Open Mind – Each To Their Own

Forex Kong 29 Comments

I hate to break it to you – but all is not what it seems.

I have tremendous respect for those who find strength and value in religion – all be it your beloved Kong is not a religous man. Considering how many years I’ve spent in various Latin American countries, believe me when I tell you….this has lead to more than few “extremely heated” debates, not to mention  the occasional tussle,  and even an instance where several womens shoes where thrown at me – high velocity style.

Trust me…..you don’t mess with Jesus – in Colombia.

I have my views…. as you do yours, and considering the amazing diversity of culture and religion on this planet – mutual respect and an open mind generally does the trick. To each his own.

That being said – I present to you, similarities in the story of Horus, an Egyptian “sky god” worshipped several thousand years before the time of Jesus and the stories of our modern day bible. Let me reiterate – The Egyptians very well documented writings of Horus predate the bible by SEVERAL THOUSAND YEARS. Stories from the life of Horus had been circulating for centuries before Jesus birth (circa 4 to 7 BCE). Check out this “side by side” comparison – and I will leave it for you to ponder.

Event

Horus

Yeshua of Nazareth, a.k.a. Jesus
Conception: By a virgin. By a virgin. 
Father: Only begotten son of the God Osiris. Only begotten son of Yehovah (in the form of the Holy Spirit).
Mother: Meri.  Miriam (a.k.a. Mary).
Foster father: Seb, (Jo-Seph).  Joseph.
Foster father’s ancestry: Of royal descent. Of royal descent.
Birth location: In a cave. In a cave or stable.
Annunciation: By an angel to Isis, his mother. By an angel to Miriam, his mother. 
Birth heralded by: The star Sirius, the morning star. An unidentified “star in the East.“
Birth date: Ancient Egyptians paraded a manger and child representing Horus through the streets at the time of the winter solstice (typically DEC-21). Celebrated on DEC-25. The date was chosen to occur on the same date as the birth of Mithra, Dionysus and the Sol Invictus (unconquerable Sun), etc.
Birth announcement: By angels. By angels. 
Birth witnesses: Shepherds. Shepherds. 
Later witnesses to birth: Three solar deities. Three wise men. 
Death threat during infancy: Herut tried to have Horus murdered. Herod tried to have Jesus murdered.
Handling the threat: The God That tells Horus’ mother “Come, thou goddess Isis, hide thyself with thy child.“ An angel tells Jesus’ father to: “Arise and take the young child and his mother and flee into Egypt.“
Rite of passage ritual: Horus came of age with a special ritual,  when his eye was restored. Taken by parents to the temple for what is today called a bar mitzvah ritual.
Age at the ritual: 12 12
Break in life history: No data between ages of 12 & 30. No data between ages of 12 & 30.
Baptism location: In the river Eridanus. In the river Jordan.
Age at baptism: 30. 30.
Baptized by: Anup the Baptiser. John the Baptist.
Subsequent fate of the baptiser: Beheaded. Beheaded.
Temptation: Taken from the desert of Amenta up a high mountain by his arch-rival Sut. Sut (a.k.a. Set) was a precursor for the Hebrew Satan. Taken from the desert in Palestine up a high mountain by his arch-rival Satan.
Result of temptation: Horus resists temptation. Jesus resists temptation.
Close followers: Twelve disciples. Twelve disciples.
Activities: Walked on water, cast out demons, healed the sick, restored sight to the blind. He “stilled the sea by his power.” Walked on water, cast out demons, healed the sick, restored sight to the blind. He ordered the sea with a “Peace, be still” command.
Raising of the dead: Horus raised Osirus, his dead father,  from the grave.  Jesus raised Lazarus from the grave.
Location where the resurrection miracle occurred: Anu, an Egyptian city where the rites of the death, burial and resurrection of Horus were enacted annually.10 Hebrews added their prefix for house (‘beth“) to “Anu” to produce “Beth-Anu” or the “House of Anu.” Since “u” and “y” were interchangeable in antiquity, “Bethanu” became “Bethany,” the location mentioned in John 11.
Origin of Lazarus’ name in the Gospel of John:  Asar was an alternative name for Osirus, Horus’ father, who Horus raised from the dead. He was referred to as “the Asar,” as a sign of respect. Translated into Hebrew, this is “El-Asar.” The Romans added the prefix “us” to indicate a male name, producing “Elasarus.” Over time, the “E” was dropped and “s” became “z,” producing “Lazarus.“ 
Transfigured: On a mountain. On a high mountain.
Key address(es): Sermon on the Mount. Sermon on the Mount; Sermon on the Plain.
Method of death By crucifixion. By crucifixion.
Accompanied by: Two thieves. Two thieves.
Burial In a tomb. In a tomb.
Fate after death: Descended into Hell; resurrected after three days. Descended into Hell; resurrected after about 30 to 38 hours (Friday PM to presumably some time in Sunday AM) covering parts of three days.
Resurrection announced by: Women. Women.
Future: Reign for 1,000 years in the Millennium. Reign for 1,000 years in the Millennium. 

Has Canada Topped? – TSX Weak

Forex Kong 1 Comment

I’ve done a bit of work over the weekend and wanted to show you the similarities in stock markets “crashes” in both the U.S and Canada.

Below  is a 25 year chart of the SP 500.You can clearly see, the current level is the absolute best the SP500 could do over the past 25 years. Not even with the invention of the most sophisticated and influential communications device man has ever created (The Internet) back in 2000, coupled with massive employment, massive corporate earnings and massive global growth could the S&P push past its current level around 1550 – 1600. What on earth could possibly be the driver now?

Stock_Market_Top

Stock_Market_Top

Now have a look at Canada’s “TSX” over the same time period, and notice something concerning. The TSX has not participated in this last “blow off top” run that the SP500 is currently experiencing as (in my humble view ) it’s purely been fabricated by the Fed’s massive liquidity injection of 85 billion dollars per month.

Canada’s TSX Index is already showing signs of weakness in not even reaching the previous 2008 highs. It appears to be rolling over.

Canadian_Stocks_Mirrored

Canadian_Stocks_Mirrored

Previous crashes where from 11,000 – 6,000 and again in 2008 from 14,000 to 8,000. Ouch. It took nearly 6 years to recover the levels from the 2000 crash, and so far nearly 6 years later – the TSX has still not  recovered the levels from the 2008 crash.

Considering that a large majority of Canadian stocks are resource and commodity related, one could argue that these companies may exhibit some resilience  ( and /or even prosper ) in the face of a falling US dollar, and flows into gold and the precious metals. Although if history provides any lessons here – fear is fear, a crash is a crash – and as U.S equities go….. Canada may not be far behind.

Certainly something to keep an eye on.

Oh_Canada_Forex_Kong

Oh_Canada_Forex_Kong

QE5 Coming – Fed Will Print Even More

Forex Kong Got something to say?

When you really stop and think about it – so far the “Fed’s Quantitative Easing” has done very little for the U.S economy, short of inflate the price of stocks. Last week’s unemployment claims numbers came in considerably higher than expected with 357,000 new claims for the week ending March 23rd.

Stop for just one minute……… and seriously think about that number again.

357,000 people in the Unites States of America filed applications for unemployment benefits last week! With essentially the same number of  people filing the week before that, the week before that – and oh yes…the week before that. It’s truly mind-boggling.

With interest rates already at 0% there’s nothing else that can be done there. Stocks are now at all time highs with very little upside opportunity left there – and now with every other country on the planet devaluing their currencies to promote exports, the U.S efforts to weaken the dollar (with the printing of 85 billion per month) has barely made a dint!

As absolutely insane as it sounds there is really no other option.

QE5 is coming, as the Fed will find some way to justify printing more, and more, and more, and more……….

I’ve inserted the following video (it’s a 24 minute interview) with Jim Rickards the author of “Currency Wars” – he explains things very well. It’s the long weekend so….perhaps sneak away and find a little time for yourself, crack a cold one and have a listen.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/wa2xM9eJY4M]

Going Short – A Difficult Trade

Forex Kong 9 Comments

I have been struggling with “going short” all week. Not in the conventional manner as in “selling a stock short” – but more so with consideration to “getting short” on risk.

For the most part “long trades” are considered bullish and are taken when traders feel that markets (and risk) are going to move higher – where as “short trades” are bearish and are taken when traders feel markets are making a turn to the downside. There are many ways to play it – through inverse or bearish ETF’s or possibly through the purchase of instruments that perform well in times of risk aversion (many feel that gold is a good play in this instance).

Via currencies I have chosen to “buy JPY” as it is considered a safe haven currency – and is generally bought during times of risk aversion. Any way you cut it, the idea being that investors would be seeking safety – and that “going short” would be the trade of choice.

This has not been easy.

Markets have traded within a very tight range (sideways) for nearly two full weeks! And regardless of some great intra day trades and profits (which I’ve had to work very hard at) it’s been near impossible to hold on to any position of size for more than a couple of hours or so – before it’s either back to break even, or worse – going against me.

My indicators ( and my gut ) keep me on the short side regardless. I will endure this mornings barrage of U.S based news and evaluate from there.

I’ve layered in to a couple of long JPY trades here over the past 24 hours that will either make me a great deal of money or (at the worst) cost me 2% of my account (not bad considering I’m up over 4% on the week anyway) so…..

Stay tuned for some fireworks.

Getting short…and “staying short” – is a very, very difficult trade.