currency trading

The Crypto Market Bottomed – Months Ago

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The Crypto Currency Market Has Clearly Bottomed

The crypto currency market has clearly bottomed despite the seemingly “never ending barrage” of negative news flow. Bitcoin stands as the best performing asset thus far in 2023, and with the halving event now only a year out – we’ve got quite a run ahead of us.

With the amount of exposure / adoption Bitcoin has received over the past few years, coupled with large scale institutional buying, it stands to reason that this next run will be one for the ages. If history is any indication – Bitcoin and crypto absolutely soar into “and well after” this event.

Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy (MSTR) purchased an additional 1,045 bitcoin (BTC) for a total of $23.9 million, or an average price of $28,016, between March 23 and April 4, according to a Securities and Exchange Commission filing.

This latest purchase brings the company’s bitcoin holdings up to approximately 140,000, worth roughly $4 billion at the current price of $28,500. The overall average purchase price on those holdings is $29,803.

This guy is averaged in at 29k per coin which is essentially today’s price! A publicly traded company with 4 BILLION in BTC on their books at today’s price = simply amazing. If we do the math assuming hedge funds and institutions inevitably hold just 1% of their current holdings in crypto – we are looking at a 10x or even as high as 25x in the total crypto market cap in coming years. Can you say the same for stocks?

It’s a brand new “asset class” – it is NOT a replacement for the U.S Dollar, and it cannot be stopped. Have you ever heard of a multi-trillion dollar market just disappearing? Think of the number of companies / people employed / software developers. Consider the multi billion dollar valuations of companies such as Coinbase. Now Twitter will offer crypto trading services, and the list goes on.

How bout this for a head scratcher. The U.S Government is currently the largest single holder of bitcoin! (Go ahead and google it) with plans to sell in coming months. You don’t think the crooks in Washington aren’t gonna get their piece? Common.

My best suggestion here is to stick to the top 10 as listed at www.coinmarketcap.com. When the market goes…..it’s all going up together so you’ll find the greatest safety at the top. Take 10k ( buy BTC and ETH ) and sit on it for the next 18 months.

You’ll finally be able to afford new warp engines for the your ride, and likely be of greater interest to those cuties on Venus.

Silver Bottoms – U.S Dollar Tops

Forex Kong 3 Comments

I’ve been patiently awaiting the bottom in Silver, and the correlated “top” in the U.S Dollar.

We have now arrived.

The same principle in markets playing out time and time again…..commodities priced in USD fall, as the “perceived value” of the U.S Dollar rises. This “inverse correlation” will now flip – with commodities ( silver / oil ) moving decidely higher, while my ol buddy the U.S Dollar get’s back on it’s way to the basement.

You just can’t have both folks. The recent “strength” in USD coupled with the massive blow to U.S companies exporting to China is most certainly not good for markets. Remember??? Forex?

The U.S ( and every other country for that matter ) wants / “needs a weak domestic currency” in order to compete / promote sales abroad.

Here’s how the two charts look:

U.S Dollar Top

U.S Dollar Top

Take note of today’s candle formation = top top top.

Now Silver:

Silver Bottoms

Silver Bottoms

I’m looking at a couple super cheap silver mining stocks in order to take advantage as…for the most part the sector moves as a whole. Endeavour Silver Corp ( EDR ) looking like a great way to go as it’s only 2.37 cents.

Don’t get me started about China and the trade war – this is serious shit. Markets no likey.

Haven’t you noticed? It’s not a silly headline and it’s not “that stupid Trump”. It’s serious shit gang.

Watch yerselves.

 

 

 

 

Daily Cycle Maxed – We Bottom Wednesday

Forex Kong Got something to say?

I don’t own any stocks first off…….and I haven’t for months. What have I missed? Jack squat man……15 weeks of watching this thing day in day out –  wiped in a few afternoons? Not my bag.

I don’t trade Forex much anymore either as it’s lost it’s appeal in comparison to “riding into the future” on a spaceship purchased with Bitcoin.

You may want to to revisit my previous posts / suggestions about cryptocurrency and consider my firm belief that we are on the cusp of an entirely “new financial paradigm” wherein –  I don’t want anything to do with the phoney baloney / last gasp / hand off to retail / overvalued / bought back stocks of the day.

Wall St. is selling like mad, as the last of the “armchair investors” scrape together their last few shillings to buy stocks – right at the top. Just like always. This will never change.

Did you happen to see any of the recent crypto currency gains? Gary? You there? You dolt. Way to go man….running a pay service with suggestions that crypto will go to zero….pure brilliance.

From a technical standpoint, you stock jockey’s are gonna catch another break here mid week with the equities cycle on day 44 now. we are totally oversold and the bounce will come within days “if not” tomorrow. I don’t question that stocks will bob along over the next 3 – 4 months but……if they do get anywhere near the previous highs…once again you’d count yourself as “batshit lucky”.

Dow now at support

Dow now at support

Here on the weekly chart we can clearly see an area of support and resistance around these levels, and the daily trend is still “up” so……another run towards the highs quite probable, although please keep in mind…

This will be the 4th attempt to break thru. How does that line up with a recession on deck? Perfectly…if you plan to sell.

Bitcoin is on a tear as expected but I assume it will pull back to a new level of support here soon – then be off to the races FOREVER.

I’m just throwing out another quick reminder to all – please be cautious. Please bank profits. Please don’t buy anymore CNBC Kool-aid.

Oil baby oil! Silver baby silver! Bitcoin baby Bitcoin!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dow Weekly Swing Low – Back To The Highs

Forex Kong 4 Comments

The completion of this “intermediate cycle” is now within striking distance, after several days of extremely frustrating / volatile trading. Wow – what a shake out.

Now the technicals are “just a hair away” from confirming a “weekly swing low” (when the close of the weekly candle is “higher” than the close of the previous weekly candle).

You see it here? Just a few more points and the swing will be complete.

Dow Weekly Swing Low

Dow Weekly Swing Low

I would also take note of the “screaming double top” There around 26,900. Yo can clearly see rejection back in Jan/Feb as well as here in October.

The average stock today (ok a few days ago) is trading at 73% above its historical average valuation.

There are only two other times in history that stocks were more expensive than they are today: just before the Great Depression hit and in the 1999 run-up to the dotcom bubble burst.

One would have to ask themselves ‘What possible upside could remain” considering the gong show in evaluations, the bleak earnings we just saw in Q3, the trade war as well both China and Russia dumping BILLIONS of U.S Dollar Debt…..and the results of the mid term elections likely to have “significant impact” if indeed democrats steal back the house or senate.

Since March, Russia has dumped 84% of it’s American debt holdings! 84%! The bond selling has now reached “waterfall levels” with no real signs of support.

The U.S Dollar is set for the next “dumping” here as of today as well.

With the weekly swing low “essentially in” one might expect that stocks shoot for the highs here once again BUT! Mid terms could put a rook in those plans.

Generally speaking……what we will see over the next few weeks will be those retail investors who have “finally gotten off the couch” thinking this time it will be different.

It’s never different.

10 years straight up……..unprecedented. How does 2-4 years down sound? 

Totally normal, as we’ve got 150 years of data to work from.

10 years up? Common…….the “down” is gonna look equally nutty.

 

 

 

Crypto Kong – Killing It On Cryptos And Weed

Forex Kong 3 Comments

The purchase of both Bitcoin and Ethereum back on Sept 22nd has been incredible.

All about the same time most “financial gurus” where suggesting crypto currencies were finished – low and behold….a dip and only a dip as Bitcoin is set for higher highs….then higher highs again.

In Canada I use QuadrigaCX for my crypto trading and they are great.

I highly recommend starting an account as it only takes a minute / is so easy and connects directly to your bank account for deposits and withdrawals.

USD has floundered / not “crashed” to the degree that I imagined but…the trade there as well, having held for 3-4 weeks short = Killer.

Shall I go on?

How bout the Canadian Marijuana Stocks??

I bought Aurora at 2.15! ACB

I bought Canopy Growth at $7.50! WEED

And recently picked up THC BioMed ( a friends company in Canada ) at .40 cents. It was .99 cents yesterday!

You know I’ve got the newsletter, and you know how bullish I am on Canadian Marijuana companies. The last 6 weeks have been unreal, as I seriously doubt we will ever see these price levels again.

Jump on the mailer and you might just catch the next wave.

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What If…..Kong Plays Devils Advocate

Forex Kong 10 Comments

It never hurts to consider the “what if’s” – right?

Playing the devil’s advocate here, I fully understand the complete and total “retail euphoria” currently playing out in markets. Don’t get me wrong either….I’ve missed a couple trades here and there. Fair enough.

Shit happens.

Stepping back and taking a wider view…the SP 500 hasn’t “really” gone anywhere for a full month ( some 20 odd trading days ) as much as the general media hype would still have you think you’ve missed the boat.

“This” isn’t exactly what I call missing a large scale move:

SP 500 - 20 days flat

SP 500 – 20 days flat

Now the “what if”.

You all know I watch the Japanese Nikkei much closer than I generally do the SP so….

The weekly Nikkei is still suggestive of a considerable pullback on the horizon OR…..(and this is still quite possible) a major top / market reversal spanning several weeks.

Nikkei Looks Tough To Me

Nikkei Looks Tough To Me

There is tonnes of room below – on route towards both the 50 day MA as well the 200 ( and we all know I love that 200! ) but more than that…..the previous high back there in Nov/Dec has yet again proven to be a very strong area of resistance.

What if……the Nikkei does still lead? What if….this retail “blow up” turns dramatically dark / sinister on some kind of “nuke news” out of Korea? What if your newly financed car ends up back on the lot since you recently dumped your life savings into the market?

Personally…..and I’ll say it again….I don’t like it.

I’m looking for a good reason to jump off the fence so….. your comments and opinions more than welcome.

If it’s all just rainbows and butterflies…..why am I not buying stocks?

 

 

 

Curb Your Expectations – Summer Has Arrived

Forex Kong 6 Comments

I’ll make this short and sweet.

Just because you’ve got your fancy new monitors set up, and all your charts / bells / whistles / lights ‘a flashing – doesn’t mean you’re gonna find a trade. Human nature would have it that you “expect” amazing things to happen. You’ve got all the tools, you’ve even gone a little overboard on that “extra screen” and you’re hell-bent on sitting down every morning at your trade terminal, and conquering the world.

Sorry buddy…ain’t gonna happen.

I can’t tell you how many times in the distant past I was 100% completely “jacked” to jump on into markets based on some over night news release, or some new article I’d found. Like a kid on Christmas morning I’d be up well before the crack of dawn, hardly able to contain myself sitting there in dark waiting……waiting…waiting for that opening bell.

Then summer came along and spoiled the party.

Hours on end sitting there staring at charts now frozen. Pacing the floor in anticipation of “hitting my exit” only to find the trade moving sideways for days……then days ‘n days more. Finally one year it got so bad that I almost gave up. I just couldn’t understand. There it all was right in front of my face…lights flashing, news running, bing bing – bam bam! Let’s do this!!

ZZZ zzzz zzzz…….zip…nada..zero – nothin.

You can’t make markets move, and as much as it’s a difficult thing to do when you’re just so excited to just get in there and kick ass…you’ve got to understand.

There is a time to step on the gas, and there are times to pump the brakes. Summer has arrived baby.

Get ready for whole lot o’ nothin.

empty trade terminal

                                                                     empty trade terminal

 

Buy EUR/USD – Before Tuesday Afternoon

Forex Kong 4 Comments

You’re going to want to buy EUR before Tuesday.

This trade fits into the exact same framework we have been working with…with respect to The U.S Dollar taking a very large nose dive –  very, very soon. You can see in the chart below that EUR/USD has now put in an absolutely “classic swing low” right at the 50 day moving average…after completing only the first daily cycle of this new “intermediate cycle”. This suggests that we’ve got several more daily cycles to go ( lasting somewhere between 30-35 days each) before this upswing completes.

I would imagine the 200 day moving average ( marked in red ) should be the next target. That’s some 350 – 400 pips!

Buy EUR Before Tues Afternoon

These correlations with The Euro, USD and Gold are batting near 100% right now….as you can’t have The Euro rise without USD moving decidedly lower. The same thing goes for Gold, and if you really want to nail this…feel free to get long The Japanese Yen ( JPY ) as well. Yen chart looks exactly the same as EURO.

So…only one more asset class to consider here right? U.S Equities.

I can’t stand the stock market right now, as it’s continued rise goes against just about every fundamental principle I can drum up. There are too many indicators and factors to list – all suggesting this thing tops out  soon…or at the very least – makes a serious correction. The stock market is cyclical and there is not a single thing “any acting president” can do to change that.

Trump has certainly “empowered the common man” with the talk of bringing jobs back, and I can certainly appreciate that but…..it won’t last. Unfortunately for stock buyers – foreign exchange leads the way and the message is painfully clear.

This thing needs a complete and total reset before some incredible turn around in the U.S economy will be realized.

Wash rinse repeat people. You know this. Has it ever been any different?

Timed To Perfection – USD Gets Cooked

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I laugh out loud this morning….as Im sure you´ve seen my last two posts – encouraging you to get short USD.

Talk about timed to perfection. USD is getting hammered on ¨no real news¨ and look at that…..U.S Equities falling pretty hard too. Again I wonder about all those blow hard ¨dollar longs¨struggling to understand how I keep making this look easy.

dollar-on-fire

dollar-on-fire

The trade is ¨short USD¨…….the reasons are many.

Timing has been key here these past months as you´ve recently seen me come out of hiding to bang down the first trade in weeks – if not months.

Boom……. thar she be.