What If…..Kong Plays Devils Advocate

It never hurts to consider the “what if’s” – right?

Playing the devil’s advocate here, I fully understand the complete and total “retail euphoria” currently playing out in markets. Don’t get me wrong either….I’ve missed a couple trades here and there. Fair enough.

Shit happens.

Stepping back and taking a wider view…the SP 500 hasn’t “really” gone anywhere for a full month ( some 20 odd trading days ) as much as the general media hype would still have you think you’ve missed the boat.

“This” isn’t exactly what I call missing a large scale move:

SP 500 - 20 days flat

SP 500 – 20 days flat

Now the “what if”.

You all know I watch the Japanese Nikkei much closer than I generally do the SP so….

The weekly Nikkei is still suggestive of a considerable pullback on the horizon OR…..(and this is still quite possible) a major top / market reversal spanning several weeks.

Nikkei Looks Tough To Me

Nikkei Looks Tough To Me

There is tonnes of room below – on route towards both the 50 day MA as well the 200 ( and we all know I love that 200! ) but more than that…..the previous high back there in Nov/Dec has yet again proven to be a very strong area of resistance.

What if……the Nikkei does still lead? What if….this retail “blow up” turns dramatically dark / sinister on some kind of “nuke news” out of Korea? What if your newly financed car ends up back on the lot since you recently dumped your life savings into the market?

Personally…..and I’ll say it again….I don’t like it.

I’m looking for a good reason to jump off the fence so….. your comments and opinions more than welcome.

If it’s all just rainbows and butterflies…..why am I not buying stocks?




10 Responses

  1. Danno August 10, 2017 / 12:47 pm

    Fully agree yet the BIG issue is still the central banks who are not only buying close to everything and control interest rates….until they stop buying and rates rise, this charade can continue.

    • Forex Kong August 10, 2017 / 1:50 pm

      Yes it certainly does appear that way.

      Canada now inching up rates a bit too so…….”something” has started – just that as you say……how long it can go on is anyones guess.

  2. Fernando Pimentel August 10, 2017 / 2:24 pm

    Thing is, as long as the inflation rate remains low the CB’s will have no reason to stop qe and raise interest rates. I believe that as long as nothing too serious happens geopolitically we will have to wait a few years for a serious spurt in Chinese middle class spending so that the easy money flow stops.

    • Forex Kong August 10, 2017 / 2:36 pm

      Man….and on it goes!

      It’s odd to even consider / remember a time when CB’s where not the biggest factor in all this.

      We all know it’s gonna crash hard when they finally pull back but again…as you’ve said – likely no reason ( other than the nukes ) to consider that happening anytime soon.

      I still don’t like it, and aside from a few big jumps in a few stocks in particular ( GRUB for one ) I’m pleased to have endured the summer with little stress and little concern. Trade when you trade….party when you party.

      I do like to party.

  3. John Black August 11, 2017 / 8:32 am

    Where do you aquire shares of these stocks? Can’t find them on my broker

  4. Gray August 11, 2017 / 2:11 pm

    Hey there Kong….with respect to your CBW reco…..be aware there are 25.5 miilion warrants released for trade this month. Those babies are in the money by 10 times at the current price so it might be prudent to let the month go by and watch. Here is an excerpt from their financials posted by Otto down there in Peru.
    “Over the past five months have issued a monstrous amount of shares all at a cost of $0.05 – 0.055 with an equal amount of warrants at $0.07. And because those cheap shares weren’t cheap enough, they did a 3 for 1 stock split for every share in the company, tripping their share count, and decreasing the cost of those shares by 2/3.. to approx $0.015 per share.
    · These non-brokered PP’s were four month hold, and as such, will come free trading four months from closing. 20M coming out May 26, 2017 at 0.05 with 20M warrants at 0.07. And in August 2017, 25.5M shares at $0.055 come free and again 25.5M warrants at cost $0.07. ”

    Cheers from the great wet north.

    • Forex Kong August 17, 2017 / 2:31 pm

      Incredible insight and info Gray – wow – just fantastic.

      Buying opportunity likely a little further out, but we’ll still have to see how things hold up

      I’d loooove to see this happen /. just get primed for better buying opportunities on the sector in general!

  5. Tank it August 18, 2017 / 6:02 am

    Hi Kong, glad to see you had a nice summer. I was wondering your thoughts on gold. It looks like it is “breaking out” of that 2011 downtrend line, indicating a trend change. Do you think this is the real deal on the way to 1550ish?

    • Forex Kong August 18, 2017 / 9:23 am

      Its very tough to say here at this moment, but personally I feel it’s a tad late to be chasing gold upward to 1550 from here.

      Looks to me like we at least need to see a full daily cycle type low, and I need to keep an eye on that damn USD!

      Stocks also looking to bottom out here shortly so it’s a very tough call here today.

      Let’s give it another day or two, and likely find some clarity.

  6. Tank it August 18, 2017 / 10:03 am

    Everything seems to be aligned for a big gold break out – political unrest, debt ceiling fighting, strong demand season. But the dollar is tricky right now/due for dead cat bounce, and I agree stocks are due for a bounce. Gold lift off delayed, but I do thinks this fall could see some action.

    Thanks Kong!

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