As contrarian as it may sound – you all know I’m looking for an intermediate “top” in USD – leading to a much larger decline.
The immediate reaction ( obviously ) to the “official end to QE” resulted in a huge spike in USD, sending EUR/USD and GBP/USD lower as well USD/CHF higher.
Today’s “candle” in $DXY ( pin bar ) is now looking prime for reversal, as it will take very little price action tomorrow – to close under today’s low.
This would fall right in line with a bottoming in JPY, and our expectation of “risk aversion” to continue.
If you’ve had any doubts of my continued view of both JPY as well The Nikkei – I hope this “blatant example” can finally put them to rest.
The correlation of “JPY down = risk on” and “JPY up = risk off” could not be more obvious as The SP 500 has done “the exact opposite” over the past week and a half.
I suggested some time ago that the currency pair USD/JPY “is the market” as Yen is borrowed on the cheap , then converted to USD to buy stocks. This could not be more obvious in viewing the correlation over this last “massive V-shaped move” in both Yen as well The SP.
USD reversal “lower” ( any day now ) and JPY confirming reversal “higher” will put a stamp on the end of this upward correction – and the beginning of our next leg lower.
Aside from the currencies, nearly every other thing I track / read / research suggests that this may not only be a strong area for “correction” – but the start of something much larger.
There has rarely ( if ever ) been a time in history when as many separate indicators / charts / graphs and info has been “this skewed” to suggest such divergence and risk of serious “downside action in global appetite for risk”.
Considering the current geopolitical backdrop and with U.S Equities still “clinging” to the highs, personally – I don’t see a blow off top scenario. To whatever degree that retail investors have “taken the bait” over the past 7 months….I believe they are “already in”.
The situation with Ukraine really only being the tip of the iceberg now as Putin’s “Gazprom” now announces “massive oil deal with China” again…bypassing the U.S Dollar in trade.These are tremendous blows to the U.S system, and make clear The U.S “true intension” in Eastern Europe.
They must save the U.S Dollar as world reserve currency – and will stage a war to do so.
The Nikkei rolled over a couple of days ago, USD looks set to plunge along with equities, and the entire currency market has more or less moved “risk off”, with USD/JPY “not breaking out”, falling back into range and expected to fall further.
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At this point in the game I have little concern for the price of gold as it’s trading almost exactly in tandem with the Japanese Yen ( JPY ) – both functioning as obvious “safe havens”.
These assets obviously gain momentum when “risk comes off” and considering that markets are now re testing the near term highs – what should one expect? ( insert lightbulb above head here )
The average investor, caught in the headlights of the main stream media and The Fed is certainly not “seeking safety” here as of this morning
Appreciate that nearly everything I track is stretched to extremes right now and rightfully so as…we are so very close to one of the largest turns this market will have seen in a very long time.
Why would gold be any different? A couple bucks here and a couple bucks there – not to worry.
These low volume days ( some of the lowest volume days of the year ) are legendary for getting people excited / worried as prices in “all assets” swing to extremes, washing out weak hands, luring in new buyers etc…
It’s always this way before a major turn in markets as the boys at your local brokerage / bank take the opportunity to push prices “as far in their favor as possible” before dumping.
September has everyone back in their cubicles. Likely back in their cubicles selling stocks and buying gold.
Gold is good – just not particularly “speedy” here at the moment.
It’s been a tough grind here as of late, with such low volume trading leaving so many asset correlations stuck in the mud. Traders looking for the usual “signals” in one asset class with hopes of “putting it all together” have been pushed around and pulled back and forth – left struggling to “find an answer” within the continued “day-to-day chop”.
A tough market to navigate with Central Bankers hiding behind every corner, and with such low volume it would appear that on many days…..the market just seems to be sitting there – doing nothing.
Oil looks to be heading lower here and USD appears tired now sitting at its near term “double top” ( as seen via $dxy ).
Gold’s pullback appears to be resolving itself – sputtering out at a pretty solid area of support around 1292.00, while U.S Equities ( as well EU equities and Japan ) look weak, tired and exhausted.
Does anyone else expect that next weeks “U.S GDP report” will disappoint? And that perhaps markets are “finally considering” things aren’t nearly as rosy as the U.S Media continues to suggest?
It would have to have been “some kind of amazing quarter” ( the past 90 days only ) for the report to make up for the incredible ” -2.9 % loss in growth” reported in the first quarter now wouldn’t it?
Stars would clearly align with USD moving lower, gold moving higher and “global equities” finally taking a break after the SP 500 has made it nearly 800 days straight without a meaningful correction.
Food for thought moving into next week. Perhaps you’ll want to take a peak at your computer / trade account a little more regularly.
I think it’s fantastic that I’ve “managed to wrangle” a number of intelligent readers here at Forex Kong, and that these guys also offer their opinions / beliefs / suggestions and projections.
You can surf around the net for a “looooooong time” searching for some of the “nuggets” that turn up in the comments section here at the site, with a large portion of these insights coming from a “small handful” of some mighty intelligent people.
Yesterday’s post on “the proposed downward slide of the U.S Dollar” brought about a couple of fantastic “alternate views” which I appreciate in that – we enter the world of “speculation” when we start looking out over longer periods of time – where in theory “it’s impossible” for anyone to “actually know” how things will play out.
Throwing the ball around with others allows for a better perspective, an acceptance of alternate views and an “opening of the mind” should you be so closed as to only consider your own ideas, as correct.
The future path for the U.S Dollar (having such impact on all else) seems like as good a place to start as any so…..I welcome “any and all” to weigh in on this post ( as I will leave the comments section open for eternity ) as to provide a lasting resource for readers in the future.
As per my posted “trade ideas” Friday, a couple of the “short USD” ideas have taken shape. In fact nearly everything is moving in said direction short of the pesky NZD. This damn currency has been bobbing around / consolidating for nearly a month and has proven to be a real stubborn pain in the ass.
For the most part USD weakness “again” appears to be the move , although at this point nearly every single chart ( looking at nearly any time frame) could almost / just as easily go the other way.
The U.S Dollar is undoubtedly the “tough nut to crack” here, and “with it goes” the rest of it so…..
Here we sit. On the fence again.Kinda.
With risk events such as the U.S Gov Debacle only days away, it makes perfect sense that currency markets aren’t moving too much, as it also remains to be seen where equities, bonds and gold will find their direction.
I like where I’m positioned here but again, am trading with 1/2 to 2/3 smaller position size than when “out on the highway” so we keep things small while we come around the corners.
Unlikely to have been mentioned on your local T.V last week, the “real big deal” had little to do with the “circus in Washington” as, quietly behind the scenes The European Central Bank (ECB) and The Peoples Bank Of China (PBC) signed China’s second largest “currency swap agreement” for a wopping 350 billion Chinese Yuan.
In an unpresedented move The European Central Bank said: “The swap arrangement has been established in the context of rapidly growing bilateral trade and investment between the euro area and China, as well as the need to ensure the stability of financial markets.”
In doing so, the parties involved avoid swings in exchange rates. They can also be considerably less reliant on the U.S Dollar for bilateral trade and business deals.
China’s central bank has now signed currency swap deals amounting to some 2.2 trillion yuan with 22 countries and regions, with its continued efforts to internationalize the Yuan and rival the U.S Dollar as the world’s reserve currency.
What do “I” think this deal suggests with respect to the long-term future sustainability of USD, now with Janet Yellen a “shoe in” for continued money printing? Continued money printing???
What do “you think” I think?
Wow. Now EU Zone looking for options moving forward.
Something important came up in the comments area last night, and I thought it worth pointing out.
When we consider the impact of a “flight to safety” ie…….a move in markets where “true fear” pushes investors to dump risky assets ( and to literally….seek safety ) it’s impossible not to consider the U.S Dollar as being “top of the list” as the place to run and hide.
Now, this may seem “counter – intuitive” considering the recent ( and ongoing ) blunders within the Unites States but – that’s not even the point. Take a look at the chart below and note the total % of global currency trading for the top 10 most widely traded currencies in 2013.
That’s 87% of transactions to include the U.S Dollar, compared to a piddly 33.4% for Euro and only 23% in JPY rounding out the top 3.
As a simple matter of “default” when risk comes off and investors get scared – there is absolutely no question that USD will take massive in flows, as risk is unwound and risky assets and investments in emerging markets are converted “back” to USD.
Now, we’ve still not seen a “true flight to safety” as global markets have so embraced the never-ending flow of “free money” coming out of both the U.S as well Japan – with the general investment climate being one of accommodation. This can’t last forever.
You’ll recall I had envisioned a time where “all things U.S would be sold” and to a certain degree I see that this has already happened. Starting with bonds ( as suggested ) then the currency, and lastly ( alllllways lastly ) stocks now starting to show their “true value”.
I’m not concerned with much further “downside” in USD at this point, as one has to keep a couple other “macro” things in mind.
How long do you think the Chinese and Japanese holders of American debt are looking to stand around and watch their U.S denominated assets decrease in value? How far do you “really” think that Ben and the printing presses can push before somebody “really” pushes back?