How Macro Can You Go? – Part 5

Fiat money is money that derives its value from government regulation or law. The term fiat currency is used when the fiat money is used as the main currency of the country. The term derives from the Latin fiat (“let it be done”, “it shall be”).

The term “fiat money” has been defined variously as:

  • any money declared by a government to be legal tender.
  • state-issued money which is neither convertible by law to any other thing, nor fixed in value in terms of any objective standard.
  • money without intrinsic value.

It’s important to remember that the actual money we hold in our hands has “no intrinsic value” and more or less serves as a “marker” for the exchange of some kind of good or service. Essentially “fiat money” is only worth what a given person feels he/she can exchange it for that “is” of some material value. The control of the “production” of this money is in the hands of Central Banks NOT a given government, and It’s herein where the true problem lies.

In the United States for example, each time the Central Bank prints a U.S Dollar and then “loans” that dollar to the U.S government ( by way of purchasing a U.S Bond which pays the bank a small rate of interest in return) more and more government debt is created!

Someone already “owes interest” on the newly created dollar bill before it’s even hit the street! As the entire system from the absolute top down ( as when your own local bank lends “you” money that they don’t really even have ) is created for the sole purpose of “creating debt”!

Why on Earth you ask? Would a government give the power of the “control / production / creation” of money to an outside / independent bank? A bank whose sole purpose is to create profit for its own  small group of investors? A bank that essentially sits “above” the actual government itself in creating money from out of thin air and then demanding interest be paid?

He he he…….we may come full circle here – as you recall the previous reference to “us humans” as little ants. If things are starting to fall into perspective now …how macro can you go?

How Macro Can You Go? – Part 4

Kong Quote:

Could the ancient astronaut theory hold true?

That thousands of years ago celestial vistors came to our planet in search of materials needed for their very survival – and in realizing the difficulties in extracting these materials from the ground, developed modern man to essentially do the hard work for them? https://forexkong.com/2012/11/08/mining-could-it-be-in-our-genes/

This would certainly save me the trouble of explaining where Gold fits in to the “macro” eh? Eh?

In “attempting” to keep these posts “on Earth” – so far I’ve managed to reduce humanity to tiny insignificant biological entities, devouring resources, and essentially destroying all other known elements of life –  as fast as “humanly” possible.

Life has existed on Earth for more than 3.5 billion years, yet in only the last 150 – we’ve pretty much managed to eradicate most of it. Could this essentially be the consequence of an innate “human desire” to find and possess Gold?

Pulling human beings out of the equation, biology on Earth takes care of itself with “absolute perfection”. Every creature there for a reason as it benefits another. Every process a part of something larger, and every system a part of something smaller. All stacked on top of itself to allow for everything – and I do mean everything to exist as it “should”…as a perfect part of something else.

If there was one thing on Earth that makes absolutely no sense at all…………….wouldn’t it be us?

How Macro Can You Go? – Part 3

If it wasn’t for the fact that the U.S dollar is the world’s “current” reserve currency – I’d likely have a wider range of  things to write about, and I need to be bit careful here.

Frankly – I’m bored stiff of the debate. If it where the “Aussie” or the “Loonie” or the “Kiwi” whatever…same thing..as this is the current situation, and you’ve got to look at it for what it is.

The world’s reserve currency has changed many, many times in history –  and will most certainly change again. If you can’t wrap your head around that well…..you’ll need to dismiss “human history” as well.

Forex_Kong_Reserve-Currency

Forex_Kong_Reserve-Currency

The current “news headlines” making light of  the American Dollar’s day-to-day “strength or weakness” have little bearing on the larger macro changes at hand, as these things take years, and years , AND YEARS to come to fruition.

A simple example. You wouldn’t have blamed the CEO of a large American company back in the 80’s for crunching the numbers, and realizing that “outsourcing her manufacturing to China” would save investors millions – you’d have praised her!

Then another CEO caught on, then another and another…yet another – then “another” until finally – BOOM!

20 years later and America has more or less sold out it’s entire domestic manufacturing industry! Oops.

Good night Detroit!

Point being…….these things take years to manifest in a literal “news headline slap in the face” , and this “is the point”. The “macro” is there behind the scenes and will “always” provide valuable insight when looking to assess and evaluate the “micro”.

The question remains…How Macro Can You Go?

 

How Macro Can You Go? – Part 2

Let’s get my “macro” out-of-the-way first as even my interest in foreign exchange ranks somewhere in the middle of my “top ten” – as far as my actual macro interests go.

I am a firm believer in the theory that we are all “equally as big as we are small”. Considering the fact that there are more stars in our universe than grains of sand on the entire planet Earth – I think it’s fair to assume that “we” (let alone myself as an individual) are relatively insignificant in the grand scheme of things no?

No wait – I’ve got it wrong. You’re a New Yorker ( and likely never been more than a couple hundred miles from your place of birth) “all too certain” the universe actually revolves around you! Yes, yes of course. There will always be those with a “complete and total inability” to understand anything outside their own tiny sphere of influence. I believe that’s called ignorance.

In any case – yes – as big as we are small.

Much like the unsuspecting ants I hold so dear to my heart. Quietly working away and completely unaware – until of course the moment one of my cleaning ladies mops “turns their world upside down”.

Didn’t really “see that one coming” then did we?

Until confronted with something so much larger than ourselves – we humans are really no different.

Let’s bring this back down to Earth – and have a look at some “macro financial” here next.

How Macro Can You Go? – Part 1

In case you haven’t gathered by now – I’m a bit more “macro” than I am “micro”.

You may scoff at this while envisioning “yourself”  the ultimate  “macro thinker”  (as I’m sure that most people do – given the constraints / limitations of a given environment or specific set of circumstances) but one can’t rule out that until you’ve been pushed outside this “comfort zone” or this “area of acute knowledge” you really can’t say for certain that you’ve got a handle on things at all.

I’m pretty sure the aboriginal people of the Amazon equally assumed they “knew everything” until the first airplanes  were seen overhead. Can you imagine the wheels turning?

Point being – human nature “should” dictate that we all feel a certain sense of  “macro”  until of course –  something finally comes along to challenge it. Last I looked – this was called learning.

The question is – How Macro Can You Go?

How macro are you even “willing to go” ? as ideas outside your comfort zone generally bring about a sense of discomfort,  feelings of vulnerability, fear,  anxiety and stress. No one “wants” to consider things they “don’t know” and no one likes the feeling of “not knowing everything”. This is human. This is normal.

The question is – How Macro Can You Go?

As psychology and the phycology of trading is of much deeper interest to me than the day-to-day math, it’s quite likely this series of posts may run on for quite some time. The summer months are slow and my position / view of markets is widely known.

I may take the time to explore the “macro” via the U.S Dollar, monetary policy, commodities and some of the more “impactful” things happening in the news.

I appreciate your patience and invite your comments.

 

 

 

 

 

You Can't Day Trade Forex Without Conviction

I try my best to strike a balance, and offer as much insight as I can to both longer term “investor types” as well those “short-term traders” looking for a little more action in their day-to-day.

I’m often confronted with “frustrated short-term traders” dissatisfied that suggestion of a “stronger Yen” or “weaker dollar” on any given day – did not provide the desired “instantaneous result” of  being made a millionaire overnight. Over leveraged and grossly under funded these short-term traders are quickly taken out, as the industry’s  own marketing strategies are fundamentally built upon this “promise” of instant riches.

You can’t day trade Forex.

No matter what you think, and no matter how many “bells and whistles” you’ve got on your charts, no matter how many “small wins” or perhaps even with a few “larger wins” the inherent volatility on smaller time frames will reduce your account to zero – long before you’ll ever  set up shop on the beautiful Caribbean ocean , bikini clad babes and tequilla in hand.

You must learn the fundamentals, as you’ve no conviction in your trading otherwise.

A quick “spike” here or “dip” there and you freak out / stop out with absolutely no conviction behind the trade – because in reality – you really have no idea at all as to “what the trade is even about” anyway. Without a fundamental reason for taking a trade you will never have conviction, and without conviction – you’re just a tiny fish getting smashed around in the surf.

I pop in and out of trades on smaller time frames all the time – only in that I’ve already got the larger time frames and the fundamentals “behind the trade” to begin with. This takes time and a considerable amount of learning but is absolutely key if one hopes to survive.

Market Recap – Looking Back In Time

When trading longer term time frames ( weekly charts ) the information listed below pretty much says it all. You can have fun with the day to day stuff sure….but with no longer term vision / no “real idea” what’s going on (short of the recent headlines on the tube) – you’re essentially just rolling the dice.

2013 trading:

https://forexkong.com/2013/01/31/2013-you-will-never-trade-it/

U.S Housing Recovery:

https://forexkong.com/2013/05/21/u-s-housing-recovery-media-spin/

Canada / U.S Market Topped:

https://forexkong.com/2013/03/30/has-canada-topped-tsx-weak/

SPY At Major Point of Resistance:

https://forexkong.com/2013/04/20/intermarket-analysis-questions-answered/

It’s interesting that “eternal bulls” appear frustrated as hell here at the “relative highs” – with consistent “claims” of “knocking it outta the park” when in reality – they sit confounded, and likely struggling to figure out “huh! – why isn’t this working out?”

Bulls n bears both get slaughtered – Gorillas make the money.

Largest One Day Gains Of My Career

I have been on and on about USD weakness broiling underneath the “gong show” of American monetary policy, as well the coordinated “media spin” aimed at liquidating your retirement accounts.

There will be no tapering. The Fed will increase it’s QE programs moving forward. Global growth is on the decline. The cycle has shown its “ugly face” – and Kong has enjoyed the absolute #1 most profitable day on record – booking a whopping 11% on combined trades ( built over time as per my entry strategy) based purely on the fundamentals and my short term tech doing its job.

I have little else to say this evening – only that patience and a keen eye on the “macro fundamentals” has proven a winning combination as of this moment.

Currency movement has again lead the way (with respect to forecasting future movements in markets)  and has rewarded those “patient enough” to slug it out in the trenches.

It’s time for celebration on this end. All too deserving if one chooses to put in the time.

I truly hope that you have done as well yourselves.

Today marks the largest single one day returns of my entire career.

I hope yours as well!

Kong…………strong!

 

 

 

Big Price Moves On Low Volume – How?

If you think about price itself being the “mind” of the market – consider that “volume” is the heart.

Try to think about volume as the amount of people behind a given move, or even the “emotional excitement” (or lack there of) surrounding  moves in a given asset. Volume measures the level of commitment in a move, and lets you know how many people are behind it.

When an asset makes a considerable move in price on very low volume ( as USD has now done over the past two “holiday” days ) we deduce that very few traders /investors  are actually involved (relatively speaking) – and that the movement lacks the commitment one would like to see when looking for momentum.

Simply put – if there are only buyers (and in this instance to “few” sellers) an asset can make considerable leaps in price with little actual participation. One could argue that on low volume days markets aren’t exactly balanced, so it’s not at all uncommon to see dramatic movements in price – even though fewer people are actually involved. Counter intuitive yes. Glad you’ve now got it under your belt? Excellent.

A valued reader asked me just today,  if I was considering throwing in the towel on my USD shorts. A valid question considering the giant leap in price we’ve seen here today. Hopefully,  now that you as well have the ability to factor “volume” into your analysis – you’ll be able to ride out a couple of these instances and stick to your guns / trust your instincts and not let the market push you around.

All good in Kingdom Kong – I haven’t even blinked.

Have a great weekend everyone.

Kong…..gone.

 

Japanese Candle Sticks – Get To Know Them

Every trader has their own “favorite type” of technical analysis to apply when viewing charts, and that’s great. However it’s been my experience that having only one “go to analysis tool” is generally not enough to get an accurate read on things – technically speaking.

You need to see things from several perspectives and apply your knowledge of at least a couple different methods of analysis in order to make sense of it all.

I follow price action almost exclusively – and have very little in the way of other “indicators” on my charts short of the “Kongdicator” (my proprietary short term tech tool) which “does” essentially follow pure price action.

Japanese candles are a very large part of my “graphical / visual” evaluation of markets action as with a simple glance, one is able to deduce:

  • The high of the given time frame
  • The low of the given time frame
  • The opening price of the given time frame
  • The closing price of the given time frame

*and even more importantly – the “difference / variance” in price over time – purely in a visual context.

So when you see a candle ( your eyes get so used to identifying them over time) that suggest to you “hey! in the last 4 hours price has jumped dramatically (or perhaps the inverse) – you take notice!

Google’em – there are piles of excellent websites outlining Japanese Candles – and how to use them!