forex trading

Ya….falling on the ground laughing my ass off.

Gimme a break.

If anyone actually believes that the fed will “raise interest rates” on its own accord – you’ll now need to turn off your computer, head into the bedroom, pack yourself a nice little “overnight bag”, grab your favorite stuffed animal ( a gorilla I can only hope ), call a friend to come pick you up….and head straight down to your local mental institution.

There’s a bed waiting for you there….and I bet you’ll see a number of your friends have already checked in.

This is NEVER going to happen! Let alone “earlier” than what markets have currently been sold.

You’d have to imagine something like a wounded American soldier, shot up, beat down and near death, miles from medical attention with little hope for survival, then taking out his revolver  – and shooting both feet.

That’s Janet Yellen raising interest rates.

Gimme a break.

I suppose you’re trading with “hopes of more stimulus from China” to eh?

Gimme a break.

The “hose job” continues, as the puppet just keeps on dancing.

The Fed will NEVER raise rates on its own accord, and “once again” the media / money transfer machines have got you tied up in knots wondering which way to turn.

Yes yes….things are getting better. Taper on track…..rates to rise sooner than expected….all is going according to plan. Good lord.

Maybe I’ve been on holidays too long as this sounds even “more” ridiculous daily.

I’m 6″2 – but getting shorter by the minute.

So the G-8 has now become the G-7 with Russia getting the cold shoulder, and the proposed G-8 meeting for June – cancelled.

Leaders of the so-called Group of Eight announced on Monday they would cancel their planned June meeting in Sochi, Russia, and suspend their participation in the international group, following Russia’s annexation of the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine and threats toward eastern Ukraine.

Blah,blah,blah…..here’s what this is “really” all about. ( I’m sure you already know this ).

Check out the location of those pipelines, and the amount of gas exported from Russia to a number of European countries, as well take note of the “cultural boundaries” outlined in the smaller graphic in the bottom left corner. Hmmmmm…….

Ukraine_Gas_Pipeline_Forex_Kong

There appears to be a whole lot of land/people there in the states of Eastern Ukraine that could just as easily “swing” Russian no?

Market wise what can be said? Another day grinding away…..short of GBP finding support and AUD looking to top out.

Trades continue to develop, as paint continues to dry.

Can you imagine if a single Central Bank decided to buy or sell a single currency in “vast quantity” in a single hour of a single day….what that would do to the price?

Now consider if 5 Central Banks at once “all jumped on board” in a single hour to buy or sell a specific currency. Wow. talk about a huge spike no?

Currency markets don’t work that way as…..it takes weeks if not months for a single Central Bank to move “into a position” or “out of a position” without completely turning the market on its head by the sheer volume / impact of a trade of such size.

Take a look at AUD/USD:

aud_usd_forex_kong_2014-03-24

While small time retail investors figure “they’ve got things licked” buying AUD up from 88 area back in Feb, we can only assume that the big boys have been quietly selling / building short positions as we now near the wonderful “red line” – the 200 Day Simple Moving Average.

If the past is any indication of the future in “this specific example” ( as I’m not so much about the past ) I encourage you to keep your eyes peeled over the next few days.

Could it be that you are learning to trade like the big boys?

Oh….I thought not.

The fundamentals “kindly departed” several months ago,  ( if not a full year ago ) so….from that perspective alone – purely fundamental traders ( if such an animal exists ) have been shit out of luck for some time now.

Technical traders will have “long ago” been shredded to bits with attempt to “ride the short-term trends” in that the “short-term trends” have generally been “ranges and spikes” effectively blowing to pieces any single “technical strategy”.

And those of us that employ a combination of “both” ( admittedly struggling with the usual “extraction of profits” ) sit relatively idle, looking for opportunity – should “opportunity” present itself…..ummmm – ok so………when?

So who’s currently making money with their trading these days?

• Is it the “Fed chasers” of day’s gone by? ( now that the Fed is in full-blown taper mode – does that make any sense? )

• Is it those who caught the turn in the precious metals market / gold / silver / mining companies? ( looking at my mining investments as of this morning, one would think not. )

• Or could it be the savvy “corporate investor”? Weeding through balance sheets daily, seeking out those specific / individual companies currently poised for growth.

Simple answer.

None of the above, as this is all by design.

You are “supposed” to lose all your money. You know that right?

During times like these, we run into the casinos with our pockets full of pennies convinced whole heartedly we’re gonna hit the jackpot. The T.V tells you, your neighbor tells you, your son tells you , your banker and broker tell you ( man……I’ve recently even had a 78-year-old retired school teacher tell me! ) – Everything is up. Buy, buy , buy. Nothing to worry about here – all is well.

Metals “pole axed”. Stocks “crammed”. Dollar higher.

Nervous at all?

This is all about position size, your ability to manage risk, and the balance of greed and fear.

The rest of it “isn’t supposed” to make any sense.

With the current geopolitical landscape looking a little more interesting than that of the currency world ( even as the two are so interconnected ) being away from “the office” this entire last week has me “knee-deep in research” here this morning – looking to get caught up.

Wow. You step away for a single week to get married ( half thinking you’ll miss something “huge” ), your own life changes “completely” and the rest of the world just keeps spinning. Business as usual.

Or perhaps not.

I firmly believe that Russia will soon take further actions to take control of Ukraine, and that “seemingly docile markets” have yet to price this in. Or at least – the machines that make things “go”  are still very hard at work “making things go”.

I encourage everyone to spend a bit more time “digging past the usual headlines” to uncover what’s really going on with Washington’s interest in Ukraine – and how serious a situation is developing. Putin didn’t need to sit around a single minute knowing full well that a full military “showing” was what was required in order to keep the scales in balance.

I can assure you that we’ve only just seen the beginning of what will likely be a very a long, drawn out, and VERY serious conflict involving The United States, The EU, Russia and China.

China’s HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI number is out later tonight and is expected to show continued contraction in China’s economy, and apparently we’ve seen the ol US Dollar take a bounce from a pretty solid area of support.

Talk of U.S rate hikes “any time soon” are completely ridiculous as the media machine continues to promote / suggest that everything there is “up up up” and all is coming along nicely.

It’s great to be back in the saddle here again, and also to have shared such a wonderful week with friends, family and my new bride!

Some pics to follow – and thank you to all of you who’ve stuck around / wished me the best!

We’re back baby!

Lets get this thing goin!

Don’t ask me why.

It’s really not that important…for now at least.

Step on up, place your bets, cover your ass.

Boom!

The Great British Pound………London banksters…..need I say more?

So…..I’ve been short the Australian Dollar for several days now and now suggest you have a good look at GBP. Let’s learn something about forex  here……

I’m “short AUD” and “long GBP” so??? How about trading the pair “GBP/AUD”?? LONG! YA!?

P.S….this thing falls into the category of “face ripper” as it’s volatility is nuts ( it can swing a couple hundred pips in the blink of an eye kinda nuts) so…….please don’t go bet the farm.