The Smoking Gun – No Love For NZD

New Zealand has raised its base interest rate to 3% from 2.75% overnight – now pushing the Kiwi “higher” than it’s neighbor AUD ( The Australian Dollar ) as far as yield is concerned.

Now……in a typical / healthy / strong / global growth / “risk on” environment – this kind of news would have sent the Kiwi “shooting for the moon” as Carry traders planet wide would most certainly look to take advantage of the % spread. Selling JPY and USD ( at near 0% ) and in turn buying NZD at 3%.

So why on Earth is NZD “lower on the rate hike”? How is this possible? Why would this be?

It’s because Carry traders are currently “unwinding risk” in preparation for what’s ahead. These types of moves take weeks if not months to play out, so once the ball has started rolling there is no way, NO WAY major players / Central Banks / institutions are going to “shift their plans” and “change direction” just because a single country has made a small interest rate hike! Not a chance!

If you ask me – the muted reaction to the New Zealand rate hike is literally a “smoking gun”.

Big boys are turning the boat, and nothing….NOTHING is gonna stop it.

PinBar Anyone? – Nikkei Continues To Lead

You may scoff.

You….. there in your ivory basement suite. Wading through piles of overdue bills reaching for the phone – only to be greeted “once again” by your local collection agency.

For a while there, you fancied yourself a “stock trader” and perhaps “financial blogger” too but…the dream has now faded, and the stark reality of your situation clear.

You are 100% hooped.

Was it the Fed that got you? But I thought they had your back?

Or maybe it was those damn “high frequency traders” on Wall St. But…I thought you worked on Wall Street?  How on earth did you ( such an astute investor ) manage to get yourself trapped, and leveraged to the hilt – when the warning signs where so clearly seen via The Nikkei?

Oh yes…that silly Japan. It’s not “America”!! How could anything going on “over there” have any possible impact on “us!” Us Americans!

Silly silly……Wall St wanna be’s.

A pinbar to the abdomen I say! A pinbar to your right knee!

Nikkei gonna show you the way – DOWN.

Many thanks to those who’ve already signed up for the Premium Services – I really do appreciate it. I’ve got a couple spots left here short term so again will offer that if anyone wants to get in touch with me directly – you can drop me a line at: [email protected]

 

 

Forming A Fundamental View – Climb Higher

From a fundamental perspective we need to look at things from the top down.

Now…..depending on “how high you climb the beanstalk” things may appear very different as…we all climb as high as we can ( based on our own knowledge and understanding ) formulating  an overall view of “what we think” is going on below. But what if you don’t climb high enough? Is your perspective “all encompassing”? Or are you only seeing things from a vantage point that ( innocently not knowing ) only allows you to see a small portion of the larger picture.

How high do you need to climb in order to formulate a macro view “wide enough” to feel that you’ve got things in the proper perspective – and in turn use this perspective to your advantage?

This of course…is wildly subjective,and always up for debate as – we all formulate our “macro views” based on our own experience, knowledge and understanding.

My macro views start with “Earth” if that says anything.I then start to work myself down.

Movement in financial markets is merely a “bi-product of human activity” so……it only makes sense to better understand who’s got the largest influence and what their intensions are no? Central Banks sit high above you and are currently in “desparation mode” world wide – doing everything they can to keep the “debt balls up in the air”, while facing the stark reality of continued “slowing global growth”.

As a retail investor don’t kid yourself. This has nothing to do with “mom and pop” buying a couple stocks with hopes of making a buck or two. The big boys push this thing around “like a skinny kid on the playground” with the sole intention of extracting your “hard earned live savings” as readily as possible – then depositing them in their offshore bank accounts.

You are at war every single day you put your money at risk in financal markets, against an enemy with every possible weapon at their disposal. Failure to recognize this generally leads to one thing, and one thing only. Failure.

If you can’t adopt a “warrior type attitude” with respect to your trading / investing then you may want to consider taking something up that’s just a little “teeny weeny” bit  “safer”.

Needlepoint anyone?

 

There's Our USD Swing – Right On Time

As suggested there on Friday “if” we saw an expected turn upward in USD ( or at least…I was expecting it ) this is clearly a “swing low” at a fairly significant area of support.

This could possibly be a very significant “low” for USD, marking “the bottom” of what could turn out to be a very powerful new set of “higher highs” and “higher lows”.

All trades suggested on Friday – moving in the right direction.

Otherwise, The Australian Dollar continues to baffle as “risk is clearly expected to come off” here in coming days and weeks.

The Nikkei taking a bump up this morning –  and that’s “all it is” a bump up, as you’ll recall – nothing moves in a straight line for long. This too…soon shall pass.

We’ve moved from an environment of “buying the dips” to now “selling the rips” so…..you better get your head wrapped around it.

Stocks can and will “fall further” over the coming weeks, if not months.

Over the weekend I’ve had incredible interest in the “Members only / paid services” area – thank you. I’m only a day or two away so for those who’ve already contacted me so I will get back to you via email as to login / site address etc. The payment system will be Paypal based so please be aware and maybe even look ahead. You’ll need a paypal account in order to subscribe/use credit card. It’s a snap to set up.

Nikkei Has Topped – There I Said It Dumb Ass

It’s my belief that the Japanese “Nikkei Index” has indeed topped, and actually did so back around 16,450 at the beginning of the year. Ya, ya , ya – I don’t usually do this / make such bold calls but what the hell…..these days I see every bozo under the sun suggesting things will go up forever so…..you can “take heed” or “take a hike” – trade it as you see fit.

This last “run up to around 15,000” ( where I’ve suggested again, and again, and again we’d see reversal ) has been what some might consider “wave 2” ( if you are an Elliot Wave guy ) leaving open consideration for a much larger “next leg down”.

The Nikkei topped AHEAD OF THE DOW in 2007 in very much the same fashion.

Nikkei_Top_Led_Dow_2007

Nikkei_Top_Led_Dow_2007

Remember this “beauty” from a few months back showing the Nikkei over a 20 year time frame?

*Draw a horizontal line at 15,000 in your mind. That is what we call a very, very, VERY strong line of either support or resistance – considering it’s significance over such a long period of time.

 

Nikkei_Longer_Term

Nikkei_Longer_Term

Japan is a disaster, and when looking at things in this context – so is everything else as…..the Nikkei generally leads.

Perhaps this will shed some light as well….on my views about Central Banking and money printing as ( if you can imagine ) the massive dilution of the Yen ( as well USD ) over the past years, if only to achieve an incremental “short-term rise” in stock prices then……..to see things fall right back to where they started – just with waaaaay more “toilet paper” floating around.

Nothing has really changed, short of an incredible “transfer of wealth” from those already left with very little………to those who’ve already got a lot more than they need.

(P.S….in light of this “bold post” I might as well throw caution to the wind and tell you to run out tomorrow, sell your house, rack up every credit card you can, sell everything you own, leverage everything you’ve got another 500%, then “pre – market” dump every penny on a get rich quick “short play” Nikkei/Dow/whatever”, sit back and just watch the millions pile up.)

Please……..don’t be silly. I’m a single gorilla, with a single opinion and view of these things that for the most part – doesn’t generally fit the status quo.

Don’t be a dumb ass.

I know you’re not.

 

 

 

 

What Do You Know? – I'm All Ears

Friday’s sell off in U.S Equities certainly took a number of people by surprise now didn’t it?

This in itself “not surprising” as the current state of “passivity” and “complacency” among investors is at or “above” all time highs. People have got this crazy idea in their heads that everything is moving along as planned, the “recovery” is well underway and that essentially ( no matter how many times they change their tune ) the Fed is there to screw you oops – “save you” if things start to get ugly.

I borrowed this chart from the good fellows at Zero Hedge to illustrate an important point.

Realistically – how much further do you think the market can stretch ( considering we are already in one of the longest, overstretched, Fed induced, pump job markets in the history of mankind ) before doing what “markets always do” as illustrated in the chart below?

Markets_Top_Forex_Kong

Markets_Top_Forex_Kong

What could possibly have you think that for “whatever reason” – this time it’s going to be different, with historical data going back to “the beginning of time” showing the “boom and bust cycle” repeat, again , and again , and again?

Tell me! Don’t just read this crummy little blurp and go back to the T.V! You tell me what it is that “you know” that has it that “this time”…yes “THIS TIME” – IT’S GOING TO BE DIFFERENT.

  • It can’t be the Fed…..cuz ( haven’t you been listening? ) the Fed says it’s going to continue with it’s tapering and within the next year END IT’S QE PROGRAM all together….so don’t give me that.
  • It certainly won’t be U.S Corporate earnings as expectations for earnings have come down considerably for the first quarter, and what? You imagine the spring and summer quarters will be any better?
  • It can’t be “global growth” as every estimate from the IMF down to the average joe blow walking down the street knows – global growth “ain’t goin nowhere” anytime soon so…….

So what is it Sherlock? What is it that “you know” that the rest of us don’t, that would have you “buy and hold” now?

5 plus years of full blown money printing and equity pump job to have it that 326,000 MORE Americans stood in the unemployment insurance line last week, and 1 in 5 households in American are currently on food stamps.

I can’t wait to hear back. I seriously “can’t wait” to hear back.

 

Chinese Fire Sale – U.S Dollar Up In Smoke

Make no mistake…China “will” take the hit on those warehouses filled with “useless dollar bills”, or at least what’s left of them by the time they’ve used all they can to buy gold.

As the “macro plans” continue to take shape, the Chinese will soon look back on the “massive fires that raged through the warehouse district” as a passing story in the news – in the context of a “time of change”.

Consider trading hockey cards with a couple of the other kids on your street. All of the same set and series, until a month or two later a new set is introduced and you start trading those. More kids are buying and trading these “new cards” until finally – all you’re left with is a tiny box of the “old ones” eating up precious storage space under your bed.

Eventually you forget all about them, as the trade of these “new cards” now has you buying and trading with little concern for the “few dollars lost” on the inventory of “old cards” gathering mold underneath your bed.

I think that sums it up.

As China continues to grow its domestic economy, and promote trade in Yuan as opposed to the U.S Dollar, it’s really only a matter of time until both China as well “a large portion of the industrialized world” separates completely from any dependence on a U.S imposed system of trade in U.S Dollars.

We good here?

No terrorism here. No “bash America” / China to rule the world type thing no.

Just a simple outline of how a couple of countries on this planet have grown to be less “export dependent” and more “domestically driven” and far less interested in the purchase and hold of U.S “funny money”- with the unfortunate result leaving The United States and it’s continued devaluation of the U.S Dollar  – out in the cold.

As the Fed continues to “mask” the true devaluation of the U.S Dollar by shorting the gold paper market and driving prices down, China gladly scoops up every ounce she can – demanding “actual delivery of the physical gold”.

China will continue to not only produce more gold, but as well purchase more gold “on the cheap” with every single “Fed raid in the paper market” to soon present the Yuan as a completely convertible currency on the global stage.

Complete with stockpiles of “real gold” sitting in vast warehouses behind it…..somewhere on the other side of the tracks.

So what does this mean for the future of the U.S Dollar and it’s use as the worlds reserve currency? What does this mean for the massive amounts of money previously gained by the U.S via the “use” of USD in trade world wide – soon to be lost?

 

 

China Reserves – Gold And A New Economy

So holding the world’s reserve currency with no need to justify / verify that anything of “real value” ( such as gold ) stood behind “said currency” sure gave the United States and incredible advantage / gift no?

With a “U.S Dollar system” now in place, and demand for those dollars “world-wide” ( as in order to buy a commodity such as sugar, gas or oil – other countries needed  to convert their local currency to USD first ) U.S Dollar printing and exporting literally “exploded”.

Exploded all right.

With complete and total disrespect for the privileges given, years of gross government spending and expansion, several “senseless wars” and total abuse of the U.S Dollar ( with it’s role as the worlds reserve currency )…things exploded alright.

Into the 17 “Trillion Dollars” The United States currently finds itself in debt.

Now, for the longest time China played right along ( in order to keep trade with the U.S stable ) pegging the Yuan to the U.S Dollar and buying tonnes of U.S government issued bonds as well amassing incredible U.S Dollar reserves in order to purchase commodities for it’s own growing population.

Back in the day China had little choice but to play along as its own economy was really only just getting started.

In 1994 when China pegged the Yuan to USD she lacked the population centers and distribution networks needed for a stronger “consumer-oriented domestic economy” to take hold. China’s only choice at the time ( lacking a large domestic economy ) was to remain focused on the continued strength of its exports, and its unfortunate relationship” with the ever depreciating U.S Dollar.

Well that was then…….and this is “now”.

A few things for you to consider before I wrap this up, and perhaps you’ll see where I’m going with all this….before I even get there.

  • China is currently the world’s largest producer of gold, and has been actively buying gold at record amounts month over month.
  • China’s economy is set to expand by an additional 7.5% in 2014 in comparison to the U.S economy lucky to grow at all, and more likely to continue into recession.
  • China’s central bank has said it no longer sees any benefit in increasing its $3.66 trillion foreign currency reserves, meaning no more U.S bond buying.
  • China currently has bilateral trade agreements ( trade outside of use of the U.S Dollar ) with more than 20 countries including Russia, Australia , Brasil , Mexico , The United Kingdom “and” even the EU!

Please refer to the complete list half way down the page located here at Wikipedia.

So in a nutshell the recent “domestic growth” in China has finally created a “consumer based economy” where in products manufactured in China are now able to be sold in China.To the extent that local businesses now exist and  “prosper” with little reliance on “exporting” and a decreasing reliance on anything to do with “exchange to USD.

We good so far? Makes sense right? Years of internal growth finally culminating in a society / economy able to stand alone and support its own domestic businesses ya? An “export based economy” now looking to become a “consumer based economy”? Pretty straight forward really.

So…..China has literally “warehouse after warehouse stuffed to the rafters” with U.S Dollars that are rapidly depreciating ever day the Fed’s printing presses keep running, with little interest in keeping / using these dollars as every day goes by.

China can now buy and sell any number of goods with a large portion of the industrialized world with little to no concern for the dollar, and has now built a “consumer based economy” of its own capable of supporting growth – with decreasing concern for export.

So…….What is she gonna do with all those U.S Dollars sitting there gathering dust and losing value as we speak?

I’ll wind this up ( I promise ) with one more post outlining what China plans to do about all this….and how it will likely affect things in the West.

Japan To Raise Sales Tax – Consumers To Slow

Brilliance out of Japan as we see the country’s standard “sales tax” raised from 5% to a staggering 8% here for the beginning of April.

This is very likely going to cause a considerable downturn in consumer spending for the coming quarter as the BOJ finds itself “ounce again” in a very precarious position.

In April 1997, when the government last raised the sales tax, to 5% from 3%, consumption took a dive and along with the effects of the Asian financial crisis, pushed Japan into deflation and a recession that lasted more than 18 months.

Now after 16 months of printing money like there’s no tomorrow, an increase in sales tax hardly sounds like part of a “cohesive plan” but this is not at all uncommon in Japanese central planning.

It’s one step forward ( if you consider rampant currency devaluation a step forward ) and two steps back as consumers tighten their belts and plan to cut back on spending.

We’ll keep a watchful eye on the Nikkei as always, along with those pesky JPY pairs that still refuse to budge.

 

 

Forex Trade Entries – The Wait Is Over

Call me crazy, as I’ve not really had much to say “forex wise” over the past few weeks but….we’ve finally got a  couple trades shaping up!

I know, I know…its been a long and painful March for anyone not watching their money management like a hawk, as many currencies have done all but what you would have expected. But again….I fell the “shake out” has about run its course.

You’d have to be looking at GBP/AUD as bottoming out here at 1.79 / 1.80 along side all AUD pairs finally exhausting “whatever buying interest” there’s been over the past few weeks.

As “100% backwards” as it may have appeared with all the tough news coming out of China and potential war stirring in The Ukraine, the near term fundamentals in Australia pulled a “temporary trump card” with both AUD as well NZD continuing to push higher.

With some of our favorite candle formations now taking the stage ( hammers and shooting stars ) I’ve got trades setting up “for you” in several currency pairs. ( I’ve been in / adding to these the entire month )

  • Long GBP/AUD “above” current price action ( say 50 pips ) and let price come to you.
  • Short AUD/USD “under” current price action ( say 50 pips ) and let price come to you.
  • Short AUD/JPY “under” current price action ( say even 80 pips ) and let price come to you.

Otherwise it looks to me that the US Dollar is “again” rolling over here, and as we’ve seen most often over the past few months…she falls “along side” risk so…..AUD down, NZD down as well USD down with JPY up, as well EUR and GBP up – as flat out wacky as that may appear to some of you.

Get it on your screen, watch the pairs into next week and see if this doesn’t set up for a trade with some legs.