For the past several weeks the real story has been Japan’s amazing efforts to weaken the Yen – and in turn drive it’s stock market “The Nikkei” to the moon in the process.
Regardless of what you might think (with respect to recent data coming out of the U.S or even the latest stream of “upbeat earnings” from U.S companies) – the primary driver ( actually “the only” in my view ) to higher equity prices in the SP500 has been the massive liquidity injections by The Bank of Japan coupled with Uncle Ben’s usual 85 billion per month.
We have now ( and finally ) reached a point where there is absolutely no question that we are in “bubble territory” as even the Fed is now doing what it can to “talk down” its own stimulus (which we all know can’t happen).
The correlations laid out here have been very straight forward. “Nikkei up = Yen down” and “SP 500 up = USD up”.
What’s interesting when we “zoom out” (and look at much longer term charts such as the last 20 or so years of The Nikkei) we see that nothing is really that far out of wack.
The Nikkei has been rejected at the downward sloping trendline of “lower highs” – for the last 20 odd years running.
So once again we are left to consider if indeed the massive amount of money printing and central bank intervention can truly..TRULY…make a lasting difference in the growth of a given economy…or merely provide a brief “reprieve” from the pressures therein.
As the Nikkei corrects lower – so will USD.
I remain short USD….and look to get long JPY in coming days.