This thing must be grinding your nerves to mush.
I’ve learned over as many years that “sideways” is a market dynamic that you “must” learn to deal with in order to survive. As the days grind on it gets easier and easier to just say “screw this!” and make some kind of a decision based in pure “emotion”.
That’s the idea. This type of market activity grinds equally on both sides, as bulls see “paper profits” diminishing, while bears can’t get enough traction to make a trade pay at all. The idea is to extract as much money from each sides as possible.
And there it is.
These days, it seems that “every day” brings reason for markets to just “sit there”. Waiting for the U.S to “go to war or not”, waiting for the U.S to “taper or not”, waiting for the U.S to “default/shutdown/ raise the debt ceiling” or not. See any pattern here?
Can these jack asses throw anything else on the pile while they’re at it?
You’ve got to just push through and not allow yourself to give in to it. That’s exactly what you’re supposed to do right? Bulls continue to pile in on easing, bears pile in on “default speculation”.
Then “whoooooosh”! – both get their clocks cleaned.
I feel for you if you’re feeling the heat here. Markets are grinding nerves to pieces ( and I’ll say myself included). We need a move here, and you’ll want to be on the right side of it. Can the risk vs reward actually support further upside in “risk on”?
Dr Kong, look around shows stocks around the world are overbought- risk off. Yes, issue now is which country are these moneys taken to? Not US of course bcos dollar has shown no sign so far.
We’re still skidding across the top…..as (you’ve got it right on) there’s been no “real flight to safety” trade yet.
Regardless of the printing….both JPY and USD will take in flows on “true risk off” no matter what the printing presses do, due to much larger “macro / global forces” taking hold.
As much as I see / know the U.S dollar is toast – we can’t look past the fact that it “IS” the current global reserve currency. No matter what – when risk comes off and “a million and one trades involving exchange to USD” come off….USD shoots higher.
For a time I considered that this time might be different, as USD and risk have been trading together , then opposite, then together etc….
Then the FED “fiasco” pretty much showed the way.
Risk off = USD up – just like the good ol days.
When “risk comes off” and USD moves higher – it’s not a matter of USD strength ( as we all know the US is toast ) but a matter of global trade “going through the motions”.
With so many things / investments globally “priced and traded in USD” – when risk comes off – these assets are sold ( in which ever currency / country etc… ) and monies are then converted “back to USD”.
It’s not a matter of “wow strong USD = strong country”.
Its a matter of “USD still has the choke hold on global commodity trades ( via it’s military strength ) and reserve currency status.
There will never be a time again in out lifetimes where USD exhibits “true strength” – as it’s the sole goal of the Federal reserve is to take it to zero.
Hey Kong whats poppin? Good comment. This most recent declaration of QE forever might just be beginning of the end where many think that inflation will finally take over and the expected inflation trades get a quick boost only to be had by the overwhelming natural forces of deflation and people flee the hard asset trades that have worked for so long. I can see gold more or less consolidating during the coming great deflation due to safe haven status. What I am interested in hearing from you is what currencies will benefit from failed US inflationary efforts? Some unconventional safe havens might arise. I guess when considering the global pooI of money and where it can go you have to think of liquidity so globally there might not even be enough “tradeable” gold out there for all that loot. The only instruments liquid enough would be bonds and currencies. So, which countries bonds and currencies would be of interest?
In other news….decent moves in the yen crosses tonight hey. Hopefully by tomorrow late morning we will get some momentum in general risk off trades.
I’m not in the great deflationary camp, but do expect the buck to take flows on risk aversion – until (of course) the Fed up’s the QE again, then again , then again and again. That being said….EUR will continue to trade the inverse as the two largest reserves ebb and flow.
Shorter term sure we’ll see USD do what it’s been doing for the past 6 months really – flirt with these levels between 79 – 82 type thing.
Even the massive QE in Japan – hasn’t done jack vs AUD ( and even less here soon ) and so on…..
I feel that we are in a time of “global rebalancing” and that currencies are all essentially falling together as liquidity continues to flow.
Keep an eye on CHF here on the next “large move in risk” and you might see something interesting.
It’s really difficult to look to TOO far out with any “fancy ideas” of where the money’s gonna go.
I’m not an economist, but do understand that the ol “petro dollar” and it’s role will certainly be central as things move closer to the edge.
If and when the U.S loses the grip on “that one” we’ve got all kinds of “lofty / out there stuff to consider”. But then of course, there will be world war before that’s going to “just happen” so….we’ll have that to look forward to as opposed to debate on currencies!
There is a massive shift underway, and the moving parts are big ( really big ) you know all this obviously.
China and the Yuan an additional factor, gold somewhere in there too I imagine.
Getting all “outer space” on ya…I’m still of the mindset that when it “all comes down” the countries that “have the stuff/ resources” such as Canada for example “should” do O.K.
This stuff just plays out in such sloooooow motions though doesn’t it? Gees.
What do you guys think?
I still think the USD has a little left before hitting a bottom here…. Do we get out bottom on Thursday? We will see…. but my 30min Squeeze in the DXY along with the 1hr,2hr running & the 4hr working it’s way into a se-up….. for me I like sideways cus it’s setting up the next move…. the longer the sideways action typically the more explosive the move…. sideways sets up long term squeeze’s & along with the duration more & more TF set up as well…. so a boring as they can be the excitement is knowing something is coming!!
Cheers Schemd,
Yes it’s a stubborn turn here ( as they’ve all seemed to be lately right? ) – as nothing , absolutely NOTHIN comes easy these days.
Nearly every single thing I track suggests USD strength, but I’m not suggesting its a “the bottom”.
A 5 day correction retracing most of the big “fed fiasco move” maybe – and then sure – just as well turn back for the basement.
Yen pairs all coming off considerably as well , in combination with equities forming a swing high here – all “looks” pretty risk off to this guy.
Now, wether it’s the start of something larger “or just another zig then zag” remains to be seen but as it stands I got long USD on Fed dump, and it’s been a solid trade thus far. I’m as jumpy as can be these days too so…..if it sticks great – if not, we’ll bank some bucks and keep up the fight!