Month: September 2013

Intraday Trade Alert! – Short Term Views

Forex Kong 34 Comments

For fun I figured I’d throw out exactly what I’m looking at on a “per pair” basis.

I don’t generally make “intraday calls” but as it stands, let’s give it a go and you guys can beat me up over it later.

USD/CAD – short it….right here right now.

USD/CHF – short it …right here right now.

USD/JPY – short it…right here right now.

AUD/JPY – short it …right here right now.

I’ve got a pile more, but “assume” you get my drift.

JPY a “buy” here, and USD a “sell”.

Take it for what it’s worth ladies….and don’t go bet the farm.

Have a look at both EUR/USD as well GBP/USD but with “super small positions” – (I’ll debate a trade on these dogs later as well).

You get rich – thank me…….you lose your house? Talk to you later.

Forex Turning Point – Today Is The Day

Forex Kong 12 Comments

Ok “mother market”…..I’m gonna give you exactly 24 hours before you’ve got a major decision to make.

I know, I know , I know…….you are the boss – and I’m just a boy trying to make a buck but seriously…you’ve gone a bit too far this time and I’m close to running out of patience.

This “pesky little thing” you call “the dollar” has just about done enough to frustrate me and my friends to the degree that we will soon be pulling out our hair – short of you making up your mind.

Are you going to let this thing get away on you? Or are you going to do “stick to the plan” and toast it like a marshmallow?

Yes , yes I understand – you can’t just make these decisions on the turn of a dime, so let’s do this……

If USD doesn’t poke its head back under 82.23 and turn red (really red) mighty quick…..then we’ll just let you have your way,  and start to consider the opposing view.

I will look to get “bullish USD” should you decide to make such a mistake right  here…right now.

Personally, I feel it’s a tad early – but if this is what you want…..so be it.

24 hours – and I won’t bother you again.

Market Dynamics, Fishing – Short Term Trading

Forex Kong 2 Comments

First off…..there really is no such thing as “short-term trading”.

Short term trading is a fantasy.

Sold to you much like “a get rich quick idea” or some sad example of “network marketing” where you the “client” exist purely as the client in your own mind – when actually fulfilling the role of “customer” in an industry that just sold you a dream.

You don’t get rich quick. You don’t “make easy money”. More like you “put down your money”, read a couple of forex “how to’s” – and BAM! You’ve been had.

So let’s get back to the fishing metaphor.

I can lend you my fishing rod. I could even be so kind as to take you down to a river I know….point you in the right direction,  and even help you out by suggesting a fly or two. (This is fly fishing boys….we’re artists here are we not?)

  • Do you care that the river’s a little high? Ya…it rained a lot last night. Ok…I didn’t think so.
  • Do you know “where to cast” ( as the fish hold in very specific areas along the river) ? Ok…I didn’t think so.
  • Have you ever been up past your knees in water moving “juuuuust a little faster than ya thought it might be?” Ok…I didn’t think so.
  • Have you considered “what you might actually do – should you get a bite?” Ok…I didn’t think so.

So………let me get this straight “you fancy yourself a short-term trader” then do you?

Common.

It takes years to read a river. It takes even longer to catch fish.

Man Your Stations! – Volatility Awaits!

Forex Kong 6 Comments

Kong! Is USD going down? Kong! Is gold on the rocks?

Kong! Are my entire life’s savings going to wind up a smoldering pile of cinder if I don’t sell now??

Welcome my friends…….

This is what we call volatility.

Let’s face it…….this thing is a bloody mess no matter how you look at! There is no “rationalization” , no “justification” , no “orientation” – when you consider all facets ‘n factors.

We’ve got potential global war, the U.S debt ceiling, a new Fed chairman and a potentially “alien escorted comet” on track for Earth late 2013 ( please google this ) , along side elections in Germany, continued “question marks” over China’s real story……and ( if you can believe it ) a new dog living below me who’s “hell bent” on howling all hours of the day and night!

Volatility? Can anyone say volatility?

Can I get a “V” please?

There are no easy answers here. You get through these times as you’ve done in the past. You face it. You accept it…..you push through. We knew this year was going to be difficult, and now with the summer doldrums behind us guess what??

Things are about to get interesting………..real interesting.

Back To Trading Forex – War Averted

Forex Kong 1 Comment

Trading forex in the coming week should prove to be volatile to say the least. We’ve got all kinds of data coming out, as well whatever “monkey wrench” the U.S cares to throw into the mix “war wise”.

Overnight China’s manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (CPMINDX) was 51.0 in August, a touch better reading than expected – which could give AUD a boost. Similar reports are expected from both the Eurozone as well U.K, as well the European Central Banks policy meetings on the 5th.

Assuming that “no war” should be generally a positive for markets, I’m sticking to the theory that we will see continued weakness in USD in the coming week, leading into the “war decisions” scheduled for September 9th.

I imagine that whatever decision U.S Congress makes – this should provide an excellent “pivot” in markets, and likely provide the “needed catalyst” to get things moving in a more decisive manner.

In line with my originally suggested time line “mid September” looks to be an excellent time for USD to make a reasonable bounce, lining up quite perfectly with the typical flow “towards US Dollars” in times of extreme fear / risk aversion.

Trade wise my expectations are relatively low next, as I will likely be taking profits on just about anything and everything as I see them come in – looking to get to 100% straight cash for September 9th area, then “possible reversal” of intermediate time frame and “possibly” even fundamental market view.

YOU DON’T WANT TO GET CAUGHT SHORT THE U.S DOLLAR IN TIMES OF GLOBAL RISK AVERSION, AS THE MOVES CAN BE VERY SUDDEN AND VERY LARGE.