As suggested a day ago – The Japanese Nikkei has had trouble clearing 15,100 as we now see both the Japanese Yen as well ( yes finally! ) the U.S Dollar both moving higher on safe haven moves.
Yet to be reflected in U.S Equities, this would suggest a “lower high” in Nikkei and presents a significant “technical” twist / turn…..in line with “another leg down” in risk.
Long USD trades now more or less break even, with small long JPY’s added – this being “only the first suggestion” of a solid turn.
Miners pulling back ( again as suggested ) providing traders with an excellent opportunity to enter the sector in coming days.
Current trades:
long USD/CHF
long USD/CAD
short EUR/USD
short AUD/USD
short NZD/USD
Yeah, short aud/jpy and aud/usd since 2 days ago. I also short eur/usd too. Hope can clear all these positions by this week.
Yes….still short AUD as well and looking to just bank a little profit and get to cash.
If again I’m pleasantly surprised by some “miracle” I’ll let it run ( in particular AUD/JPY ) on big time correction but…..
As per usual these days…..you just can’t go making any large scale plans for the future
with the recent dollar strength ,, (finally some action)
where do you see AUD going which level ,, lower than .8660 ??
You are a trooper Farhan. I know it hasn’t been easy.
Given your trading scenario / circumstances I encourage you to just “get safe” and protect your capital, even scale back on position size to allow for a little more “creativity”.
Looking further out…..I see AUD much lower…..
Like……80 type lower….but you and I will have traded it manyt times until then.
position size is normal , just want this grinding to stop ,,
just want it to get to the .88 level so that i can get out with respect and then will focus on the other opportunities that i am missing cos of being stuck in this grinder ,,
at .88 i ll be just fine ,,
Perfect Farhan.
You’ll get there.
Dollar’s screaming higher this morning, congrats Kong!
Yen crosses look like they want to roll over.
Yes thank you although……I’m approaching this a little differently this time.
I’ve zero “fundamental faith” in USD moving much higher so…..”again” I’m stretched to add any further / get too excited.
To be honest….I’m going to actually employ “stops” / continue with my holiday plans and let these long USD trades either “shoot for the moon” or break even / get out.
At this point short of “momentum” carrying these further, I’m not hanging my hat on USD long in any fundamental sense. We’ve already seen that tapering has has little impact, and are now nearing a time when “more printing” looks probable.
The window is really between now and late March as far as I’m concerned…and in all – I see USD hitting 80.80 / 81 area in $DXY max, then rolling over hard. I’ll give it “3 more days” and just take whatever I get. This month lookin like a 4-5% er.
A wash as I see it.
Some point in the next 5 days I have to convert a large sum from GBP to Euros to buy a villa. Any thoughts on GBP/EUR in the next few days (do it now or wait a few more days?).
What do you think longer term? As a UK person I think I will put a hedge on to the value of the property on a rolling forward basis. Concerned if we get back to 1.50 to the £ I lose over 20% in GBP terms.
Wait a few more days…but ONLY a few more days.
Near term USD strength obviously equates to EUR weakness ( as well to a certain degree GBP ) but…..GBP is a horse here and very strong.
I’d play it as I’m playing it via USD……watch USD as it approaches 81.oo area in $dxy or……approx…135.70 in EUR/USD?
This would be a “resonsible area” to evaluate EUR/GBP and even at that….what? a penny er two max? Then exchange thru a retail window / regional bank?
Tough to get to concerned about it when the bank sits in the middle of the transaction right? They’ll getcha regardless of the current exchange.
EUR going lower vs GBP moving forward.
Hold out as long as you can on the transaction and promise me a guest room.
Will do amigo! I negotiated with bank 20bps off spot. Retail banks kill you usually, my main bank wanted 150!
F#%kin banks.
Interesting as you’ve flipped the currency pair / inverse as I normally view it / apply technical analysis, regardless of the fundamental view.
I appreciate looking at things from “your perspective” as this transaction affects “you” as a holder of GBP.
Perhaps other readers can take note as “a fiat currency” is really only of use to you in a direct / literal sense with respect to “what you are able to buy with it” as it pertains to your own circumstances.
I live in Mexico for example….but I make both U.S as well as Canadian Dollars….
I DONT SPEND THEM IN THE U.S OR CANADA! So my income is GROSSLY exaggerated.
Sorry when you say Euro going lower, does that equate to towards 1.10 or towards 1.30. Never know the FX terminology
Yeah! just “get safe” and protect your capital, even scale back on position size to allow for a little more “creativity”- totally agreed! I’ve closed all my positions(waited for 3 days) 3 hours ago. Eur/usd, Aud/Usd, as well as Aud/Jpy. Bank profits first, will look for a good level to short it again 😉