Absolutely nothing….I mean “nothing” could thrill me more than this mornings market action.
For medium to long-term traders, there’s generally nothing better than seeing price levels move to “wild extremes” – in the wrong direction.
I’m talking about a “bear market rally” now pushed into the “maximum resistance zone”.
A thing of beauty to say the least.
For those looking at the general correlation between The U.S Dollar and Commodities – look no further, as Gold and Silver haven’t budged.
Chatter from The ECB has simply shifted the flow of currencies from EUR to USD in a small scale/weekly sort of way….and will soon swing back in the longer term direction of choice.
Tuesday at the absolute latest…..USD ripe for the turn.
Bold call. I like your posts!
Hi Kong,
Long time. Hope the markets (and life) have been treating you kindly.
So what’s your take on the formidable rally that has taken place since October. It doesn’t feel like it’s going to stop any time soon. USDJPY is relegated to being above 120.00 (just look at how that price moves once NY opens). Falling commodities aren’t a concern any more, Poor world data doesn’t matter. The CB’s, with their promises of more QE, have turned risk off in to a concept of the past.
With the end of year around the corner and the subsequent low volume, we could well see the US markets put on a another 10% with ease especially if the FED says they will wait and see after the rate increase in December.
You still think US markets will fall below Oct 2014 lows? It came close in August this year but since then, I think most bears have been blown out of the water. Even the usual JPY vs Commodities risk off has made nothing significant for ages now. No risk in the system at all.
First two days of November have been formidable. Every dip is being bought. US markets seem will placed to make all time highs again. Should the beaten down stocks all catch a bid, we could well see an epic rise.
Do you think the next true risk off will take place once the US Presidential elections are over? They say markets never tank in the final year of a presidency?
hmmm. Unfortunately you’ve been wrong on this move for a long long time. Wish you luck and hope you can get it turned around soon. With a (verified) account.
Later Kong
Yes Ill be sure to let you know how things work out….
Ya right.
Excellent NFP and US$ surging, Almost feels as if the FED has lost control of it’s currency. I believe it’s the rising US$ that will cause havoc in the markets in months to come.
FED now no longer has a reason to delay raising rates. Emerging markets that have borrowed in US$ will be forced to pay a higher rate, commodity complex (especially oil) could see a number of bankruptcies as well as all other firms who have effectively borrowed at near zero to simply buy back their stocks..
I still believe the FED will temper any rate rise with the comment, “wait and assess future data”, or, “rate rise will be gradual”. Should they utter those words, we could see risk soaring.
I think the stick save for the US$ will be in December when neither the ECB or the BOJ do anything with regards to their promised of more QE, they don’t have to. The perceived FED rate rise has already done it for them.
Let’s see where risk takes us today. US equity markets are practically unchanged on the day despite JPY weakening and the hit to commodities (especially oil). The banks will see their prices rise fast and hard in a rate rise market so this may well hold the markets up.
Am short S&P – let’s see.
May I just add Kong, these are merely the musings of a rank amateur. The past 7 years has made a mockery of what the financial markets were supposed to be for; The creation of place where price discovery can take place through honest means (or as near to honest as can be).
The CB’s and politicians have created an environment where the (lucky) few at the top can get away with outright thievery (Corzines, HFT, To Big to fail Banks). Price discovery is no longer relevant or even desired. The whole system is artificially kept up by the powers that be as they know, should the financial system implode, so does their power base.
Frankly I have come so cynical of the markets, nothing surprises me anymore as to the shenanigans of the CB’s and politicians.
Thanks for your thoughts as well as providing a place for me to occasionally air my thoughts.
Best regards
Kong, we need an update!
Just a question from a hobby investor…why does it seem you always profess, a couple years now, a falling US dollar, but show exorbitant profits? If you are betting against the dollar, why are your profits so high? Thank you.
You only need to be on the right side of the trade at the right time no matter what your convictions are.
Cuz he’s a charlatan who hates the states. He’ll say whatever it takes to justify his beliefs; even if that means fudging the balance book
Not sure what being a charlatan would achieve? It’s simply a blog with his thoughts and ideas. He’s not asking anyone for money? I believe his paid blog site is $30 a month? It’s hardly going to allow him to retire even if it had 100 subscribers.
Risk off has been a difficult play this year but there have been ample opportunity for profits, it’s just that you’ve had to wait ages for such opportunities to materialize and you’be had to select the correct instruments. certainly JPY (up to Sept) had offered much more opportunities than stock indices but hey have been there.
Anonymous.
Having read Kong for over a year now, Kong tends to play risk on/risk off. These aren’t always against the US$ but rather against JPY. Once the risk off has run it’s course (or until he seems fit), Kong tends to close the trade and then just wait for another opportunity. His recent posts are evidence that he doesn’t always get it right, I believe Eur/Usd and Gbp/Usd have been losses of late?
However if you pull up charts of JPY vs any commodity currency, you will see these haven’t really gone anywhere and indeed I have been making plenty from Aud/Jpy which seems to be stuck in a well defined range.
Although risk on is apparent in Stocks, currencies, yield, credit, commodities, all seem to be showing otherwise. I guess it’s just now a case of waiting for everything to come together (i it ever does). But keep watching Copper, oil and JPY.
Thank you.