2% on the day – beer money for sure….as well the following cartoon:
For an additional 8:51 minutes of your time I truly believe you will enjoy this excellent video explanation of the Federal Reserve. In particular the part siting the “owners” of the Federal Reserve, as well the little bit on every man,woman ,child and baby “owing” the Federal Reserve.
(If you are receiving this via email – please click the title and visit the blog directly)
[youtube=http://youtu.be/Oe0fGXzKb1o]
If Uncle Ben’s plan has been to devalue the dollar through QE4 – he’d better get his ass in gear. Thus far since the announcements of “QE forever” – the USD has done little more than trade sideways against most of the majors, and has GAINED considerable value against a number of others.
The USD has traded near parity against the Canadian Dollar for the past 6 months, with only a few cents in fluctuation. Both the Aussie and the Kiwi currently sit at levels seen going back a full year – and for the most part have made little sustained ground on ol Uncle Ben.
The Yen has been devalued recently, to such an extent as to represent a complete reversal of trend going back some 5 years! So absolutely zero reflection of USD devaluation there. And the GBP (Great British Pound) has taken such a beating as of late – as to have LOST 600 pips to the USD.
For the most part the only major making any headway against the USD has been the EUR – and even at that, is still trading at levels we’ve seen many, many times over the past several years – with little or no major effect or concern. In “range” if you will. Gold has been pounded into the ground – and in dollar terms – where’s the printing? where’s the devaluation?
So…short of encouraging investors to continue buying stocks and bonds (with the knowledge that “fed confetti” should keep prices elevated) the current suggestion that the “dollar is being devalued” hasn’t really even taken hold – opening up some fantastic trade opportunities when one considers that…THE USD DEVALUATION HASN’T EVEN STARTED YET.
THE USD DEVALUATION HASN’T EVEN STARTED YET.
I’m usually not one for moment to moment market commentary – but on occasion (for example my “risk on” post some weeks ago with reference to getting short JPY) I have been known to do so.
Take it for what it is…as this is a free blog – but if I was ever a buyer of U.S equities (which as a general rule I am not) – I would buy this close – HARD.
Forgive me for a small poke as well but….the American politicians should be absolutely ashamed of themselves. I’m not sure if anyone living in America still thinks they live in a “free country” – but once again stock holders are more or less “held hostage” till (let me guess) late Sunday night…before getting on with their lives – some I’m assuming worried if they will still have a job in 2013 and/or if additional tax hikes will break them.
Its appalling. Its embarrassing. Shame, shame, shame…..
So….obviously – buy stocks!
Im getting short the USD hard as well staying short JPY – long the commods here, as well getting long EUR late this evening or sometime tomorrow.
Good luck America! Good luck!
Japanese elections play out exactly as expected with a HUGE GAP UP in JPY crosses here Sunday night.
As the currency wars continue – everything is clearly in place for some serious USD devaluation. If you choose to just sit and “see how things go” you will soon (if not Monday morning even.. ) be left in the dust – as the dollar has absolutely no where to go but DOWN. I don’t go making calls in a minute to minute / day to day type way ( although if you’ve been following the trades at all – you’ll find that I might as well) but…….this is it!
I expect markets to power forward here this week and as simple as it gets – all assets shall rise!
If you’ve got dry powder – I seriously suggest no…..I SERIOUSLY SUGGEST you take this opportunity ( and perhaps get out of bed a little early tomorrow morning) to pull up a chart or two, get that broker of yours on the phone – and place a trade.
I am already trading / initiating further “risk related” trades across many many currency pairs with the same ol underlying theme – buying the risk related currencies….and selling the safe havens. I am expecting to do very, very, very well this week. Watch for “whipsaw” type activity – and please take the time to find entry at areas of support – don’t be surprised if “they don’t make it easy” – but it’s time….I believe Christmas has come a week or two early.
Kong……………………Gone.
I’ve been going on about this for almost a full month now, and despite the profits made dipping in and out – it has been no simple task sticking to the dollar short trade. The USD Dollar has done just about everything in its power to confuse and confound traders as of late – and has hovered around the 80.00 mark for far longer than most may have expected.
The Dollar is now set to provide some consistent and “tradable” downside action.
As outlined prior with the “swing low” in silver (and now subsequent swing low in gold as of Monday) we now see that the dollar has (opposingly) made its swing high. Often when solid technicals line up with the underlying fundamentals in such a perfect manner – big things can happen.
We already know that The Federal Reserve wants a weaker dollar – so on a purely fundamental level (and in conjunction with the FOMC meeting set for Wednesday) it appears that this piece of the puzzle is well in place. Coupled with a “swing high” as well as a failed attempt at a downward sloping trend line break in the USD over the past two days – puts us right on track for a solid move….south.
There are several ways to play this – be it through equities (that will rise with a falling dollar), gold and silver related stocks and ETF’s, and of course through the currency markets where I will likely be adding to current positions long both AUD/USD and NZD/USD as well short USD/CAD, USD/CHF – as well a basket of other (and more exotic) “risk on” related pairs.
For more on the “swing low” please reference the prior post.
If you’ve never heard the term “dead cat bounce” – here it is. A dead cat bounce is an industry term used to describe the upward movement of a given asset “contrary” to a larger degree down trend.
Dead Cat Bounce – In finance, a dead cat bounce is a small, brief recovery in the price of a declining stock.Derived from the idea that “even a dead cat will bounce if it falls from a great height”, the phrase, which originated on Wall Street, is also popularly applied to any case where a subject experiences a brief resurgence during or following a severe decline. (thanks Wikipedia)
In this case – I guess it’s not exactly a dead cat bounce, as the dollar has only just recently begun it’s expected downward fall – but I do expect a “bounce” all the same. As far as trading it goes – if you are an equities buyer – I imagine you should get some nice opportunities to buy in coming days, before this thing lifts off to new highs.
As a currency trader – I am not going to bother doing anything short of watching the dollar closely – and aim to catch it at its peak (perhaps around 81 late in the week) before re-entering “short dollar” positions across the board. It’s not worth trying to squeeze every single penny, and push any further short dollar positions now ( considering I am 100% in cash).
Best trade is no trade at all here – and as I’ve said many times before – I am not missing anything – there are a million trades – and chasing anything is a fools game.
$dxy november 26th
Listen……….
The $dxy (or symbol:$usd) tracks/charts the U.S dollar against a “basket of currencies” where 57% of that basket is weighted EUR – and the remaining percentage is broken down as follows:
http://www.fxtrademaker.com/usdx.htm
Often… traders will watch this symbol, and make assumptions as to the dollars strength or weakness based on its movement.
BUT……………..
When looking at individual currencies independently – “against the U.S Dollar” one can see that this is by no means accurate – and in my opinion…..extremely misleading.
I see the $dxy at 80.05 presently ( up +0.14) – which would suggest dollar strength – right?………RIGHT?
Then why is my screen “so deep in the green” when I am short the U.S Dollar?
HMMMMMM……………
BECAUSE I AM SHORT THE DOLLAR AGAINST EVERYTHING UNDER THEN SUN….”OTHER” THAN THE EURO!
AUD killin it……NZD killin it………CAD killin it.
So….You get it?
Don’t get fooled…the dollar is goin down….down……down.