forex trading

Is it any wonder I’ve had little to say as of late?

There finally comes a time where……you’ve seriously “had enough” and just can’t be bothered to explain / rationalize this nonsense.

The Fed “STILL” refuses to spit it out, talking this afternoon as if they are ( rolling on the floor laughing my ass off ) “achieving their goals” and that ( love this ) the U.S economy “continues to expand”.

Again…….laughing my fu$&kin ass off. “Expand”?

Perhaps the “balloned heads” of those on Wall St. and obviously the “waist lines” of the general American populus continue to expand ( a wonderful honor – deemed the “fattest nation” on the planet ) but……the economy???

Fudge.

You boys better get this war going soon as……..even Yellens acting coach is now re watching the tape with consideration that “shit! – we can’t get away with this again”.

Adding short SP 500 at 1940.

The Fed’s Theater of Lies is Finally Cracking

Look, I’ve been watching this charade for years, but even I’m stunned by the audacity. Yellen and her merry band of economic terrorists are standing there with straight faces telling us the economy is “expanding” while every real metric screams the opposite. Unemployment numbers massaged beyond recognition, GDP figures that would make a Hollywood accountant blush, and inflation data so cooked it’s practically charcoal.

The SP 500 at 1940 is a gift from the trading gods. This market is built on nothing but hot air and central bank promises that are worth less than the paper they’re printed on. When reality finally catches up – and it always does – this house of cards is coming down hard.

The Dollar’s Death Spiral Accelerates

While everyone’s distracted by the Fed’s comedy show, the real story is unfolding in the currency markets. The dollar’s strength is pure illusion, propped up by nothing more than institutional inertia and the collective delusion that America still runs this show. News flash: USD weakness isn’t coming – it’s already here, hiding behind manipulated data and coordinated central bank intervention.

Every major economy is quietly diversifying away from dollar reserves. China’s buying gold like there’s no tomorrow, Russia’s dumping treasuries faster than a hot potato, and even our supposed allies are hedging their bets. The writing’s on the wall in letters ten feet tall, but somehow Wall Street analysts keep acting surprised when currency volatility spikes.

Market Mechanics Show the Real Story

The technical picture doesn’t lie, unlike our friends at the Federal Reserve. Volume patterns, institutional positioning, and cross-market correlations are all screaming the same message: this rally is exhausted. We’re seeing classic distribution patterns across multiple timeframes, smart money quietly heading for the exits while retail investors keep buying the dip.

What we’re witnessing isn’t a healthy correction – it’s the beginning of a structural shift that’s going to catch most traders completely off guard. The same fools who bought into the “soft landing” narrative are going to be holding the bag when this bubble finally pops. Rally expectations are about to meet the harsh reality of overleveraged markets and exhausted monetary policy.

The War Card is Their Last Play

Here’s what really pisses me off: these clowns are so backed into a corner that military conflict is starting to look attractive as an economic solution. Nothing covers up a collapsing financial system quite like a good old-fashioned war. Suddenly, massive government spending becomes “patriotic,” currency debasement becomes “wartime necessity,” and anyone questioning the narrative gets labeled unpatriotic.

The playbook is as old as central banking itself, but the execution is getting sloppier. Too many people are awake now, too many traders understand the game, and too much information flows outside traditional media channels. The internet has made it impossible to maintain these lies indefinitely.

Trading the Collapse

So what’s a real trader supposed to do in this environment? First, stop listening to financial media – they’re either clueless or complicit. Second, focus on what’s actually happening in the markets, not what officials claim is happening in the economy. Third, position for the inevitable rather than hoping for the impossible.

Short positions in overvalued equity indices, long positions in hard assets, and currency trades that benefit from dollar weakness – these are the plays that make sense when the foundation is crumbling. Don’t fight the Fed’s printing press, but don’t believe their fairy tales either.

The smart money knows this game is nearly over. The question isn’t whether the current system survives – it won’t. The question is whether you’ll be positioned correctly when the music finally stops playing.

I’m pretty sure that markets will take the 3rd and final “zig/zag” of this correction on the Fed statement tomorrow afternoon.

The Fed must align with the “already downward sloping projections” of both the IMF as well World Bank “admitting” – global growth ( and along with it – U.S growth ) is firmly on the decline.

I expect this to kick off the last little leg down, before ( god knows for what reason other than Central Bank intervention ) markets make one last shot for the highs – completing the “projected market direction” from last weeks report.

Investors may want to consider the next month even, as the last and final stop / place to consider taking serious steps towards portfolio liquidation / protection and a complete “changing of the guard” if you will.

Holding stocks after this final push higher will have you sitting in loss for much longer than it could possibly be worth ( short of the piddly dividends ) tieing up dollars that could easily produce much better returns “actively traded” on the short side so……please be warned. Buy and hold will not survive here. Period. You’re a complete and total idiot holding stocks past Sept – and I will mark this post / welcome you to look back and quote me in fact…..I’m marking it, and will look back to tell you so….

Traders can take a shot at it ( as I will be ) catching the next turn higher and taking it for what it is – a trade.

I will quite likely just “stop and reverse” on EUR/USD, GBP/USD ( re-enter short ) and USD/CHF at the bottom of this correction, sell USD/JPY as well the SP short  – and leave the JPY’s flat / re-evaluate the commodity currencies as……I don’t really expect these to “rocket ship higher” based on a crummy “last-ditch effort” in equity markets.

In any case……watch for another leg lower here in risk on “Fed admission” of lower projected growth in the U.S – then prepare for a quick turn and “last-ditch effort” ( which could still run for weeks if not months ) before markets turn for good late Aug / early Sept.

For members – Real time trades to follow in your inbox. I’m holding all now and will likely add short SP 500 to average in “after Fed” tomorrow, with plans to blow out this trade a few days later.

The Fed’s Admission: Your Signal to Prepare for the Final Act

When central banks start admitting reality, that’s when smart money gets ready to move. Tomorrow’s Fed statement isn’t going to surprise anyone paying attention – they’ll align with what the IMF and World Bank already know. Growth is slowing, projections are getting slashed, and the party is winding down. This isn’t doom and gloom – it’s opportunity for those who see it coming.

Why This Correction Pattern Matters More Than Most

This third leg down completes a textbook correction pattern that’s been building for weeks. The beauty of this setup is its predictability – central bank intervention will create one final push higher, giving late-comers their last chance to exit and smart traders their final long opportunity before the real decline begins. Markets love these manufactured rallies because they create the illusion that everything’s fine while institutions quietly distribute their positions to retail investors.

The currency implications here are massive. When equity markets start their final descent in late August or early September, safe haven flows will dominate. The USD will strengthen against risk currencies, but not uniformly. EUR/USD and GBP/USD will face additional pressure from their own economic headwinds, while USD weakness in specific pairs will create tactical opportunities for those positioned correctly.

Currency Positioning for the Turn

The stop-and-reverse strategy on major pairs makes perfect sense here. EUR/USD and GBP/USD shorts at the bottom of this correction offer excellent risk-reward, especially with European growth concerns mounting. USD/CHF longs become attractive as safe haven demand increases, and selling USD/JPY aligns with the broader risk-off environment that’s coming.

Don’t expect commodity currencies to rocket higher during any equity bounce. Australia and Canada are facing their own structural headwinds, and temporary risk-on sentiment won’t be enough to overcome fundamental weakness. The smart play is staying flat on these pairs until the direction becomes clearer post-correction.

The September Reality Check

September has historically been brutal for equity markets, and this year sets up for a particularly nasty reversal. The combination of seasonal weakness, Fed policy constraints, and deteriorating global growth creates a perfect storm for significant downside. Buy-and-hold investors clinging to hope will face months or years of underperformance while active traders capitalize on volatility.

This isn’t about being bearish for the sake of it – it’s about recognizing cycles and positioning accordingly. The market dynamics are shifting from growth-driven rallies to central bank-manufactured bounces, and those bounces get weaker and shorter over time. Smart money understands this transition and positions for both the temporary rallies and the inevitable decline.

Risk Management in Volatile Times

Adding to SP 500 shorts after the Fed statement makes tactical sense, but averaging in rather than going all-in protects against any surprise hawkish rhetoric. The plan to close these positions during the bounce shows proper trade management – taking profits when available rather than hoping for maximum theoretical gains.

The real money will be made on the short side once this correction runs its course. Markets that fall slowly and grind lower create the best short-selling environments because volatility stays elevated while direction remains consistently down. This isn’t a crash scenario – it’s a systematic repricing that could last months and create numerous trading opportunities for those positioned correctly.

Portfolio protection becomes critical over the next month. This final bounce higher represents the last good exit point for long-term equity positions before the serious decline begins. Missing this opportunity means accepting significant drawdowns and tying up capital that could generate better returns through active short-side trading strategies.

Oh no……what do you know.

I’ve seen a handful of news articles ( ironically out of the U.S ) this morning suggesting that “The Fed” will likely “guide down” with respect’s to future outlook on U.S economic growth. He he he….you’ve got to love coming from my point of view. You’ve really gotta love it.

The Fed….now “changing the language” ( well…duh…as we all know global growth is set to “slow” ) to reflect concerns of “lower than expected growth” to follow.

Do you feel that you’ve been duped? Do you feel angry?

Can you imagine that after 5.5 years of essentially “robbing you of your savings” ( via 0% interest ) as well as”rapidly devaluing” your currency, providing “a big fat zero” to job creation and economic growth AND blowing an enormous bubble in the stock market……

You’ll now enter recession?

You’ve got your head buried so deep in the sand that you don’t even realize that “the recession” never left. Only a brief “5 year soaking” of the “mom’s n pop’s” to keep those Wall St banks afloat a while longer.

Well…..no that your savings are gone…..now that the “little bit extra you thought you had” for stock investing is gone…..now that your job is gone…shit….now that your wife and kids are gone we might as throw in the fact that your hair has likely “left the building as well”.

What the f#%k are you gonna do now?

Hey! It’s America! Let me guess??

Please don’t say “join the army”….please no……please don’t say that.

War! War! ( southern twang ) What we Americans need is a damn war!! Let’s go to  war dang it ! Mamma! Mamma! I wanna go to war!!

Fudge.

How many times do you need to see the same stupid Hollywood movie over and over,and over again?

Have you considered taking up arms against The Fed?

The Fed’s Shell Game: How Monetary Policy Created This Mess

Let’s cut through the bullshit and examine what really happened here. The Federal Reserve didn’t just “guide down” expectations overnight – they orchestrated the largest wealth transfer in modern history while keeping you distracted with promises of recovery that were never coming. Five and a half years of zero interest rates wasn’t economic stimulus; it was systematic theft from savers and retirees to prop up zombie banks that should have died in 2008.

The recession never ended because the underlying structural problems were never addressed. Instead, the Fed chose to paper over the cracks with freshly printed dollars, creating asset bubbles while real wages stagnated and manufacturing continued its exodus. Now they’re “surprised” by slower growth? Please. They knew exactly what they were doing – buying time for the financial elite while Main Street got bled dry.

Currency Debasement and the Dollar’s Inevitable Fall

Every dollar printed since 2008 has been a vote of no confidence in the American economy. The Fed’s balance sheet exploded from $800 billion to over $4 trillion, and for what? Temporary stock market gains that enriched the top 1% while destroying the purchasing power of everyone else’s savings. The inflation they claimed didn’t exist was there all along – in food, energy, healthcare, and education. They just rigged the CPI to hide it.

The writing is on the wall for anyone paying attention. Other nations are quietly diversifying away from dollar reserves, setting up bilateral trade agreements that bypass the petrodollar system entirely. When the world stops accepting our exported inflation, the party’s over. USD weakness isn’t just a cyclical trade anymore – it’s structural and permanent.

The Wall Street Bubble Machine

Stock buybacks funded by cheap debt, zombie companies kept alive by easy money, and valuations that make the dot-com bubble look conservative – this is the Fed’s legacy. They didn’t create jobs or innovation; they created financial engineering and speculation. Real capital formation died when interest rates hit zero because there was no longer any cost to capital misallocation.

The coming crash won’t be like 2008 because there’s no ammunition left. Interest rates are already at zero, the balance sheet is already bloated beyond recognition, and government debt is approaching levels that would make a banana republic blush. When this house of cards collapses, there’s nowhere left to hide except real assets and hard currencies.

The War Machine’s Last Resort

History shows us that failing empires always resort to military adventures to distract from domestic failures. It’s the oldest trick in the book – create an external enemy to unite the population behind failed leadership. The military-industrial complex needs constant conflict to justify its existence, and a desperate government needs something to blame for economic collapse.

But here’s the problem: modern warfare is expensive, and America can’t afford another prolonged conflict. The logistics of fighting wars halfway around the world while the domestic economy implodes is a losing proposition. The Romans tried this strategy too, and we know how that ended.

What Comes Next

The Fed will continue printing money because it’s the only tool they have left. They’ll dress it up with fancy names like “quantitative easing” or “yield curve control,” but it’s all the same thing – currency debasement on a massive scale. The smart money is already positioning for this outcome, moving into assets that can’t be printed into existence.

Don’t expect the mainstream media to tell you the truth about what’s coming. They’re too invested in maintaining the illusion to report honestly about the system’s failures. The time for denial is over. The time for action is now. Position yourself accordingly, because when the music stops, there won’t be enough chairs for everyone. Market cycles don’t care about your feelings or your retirement timeline.

Some interesting macro factors have “suddenly” come into play over the past few days, but the question still remains – “does anything fundamental even matter to this market”?

Markets shrugged off the concerns in Ukraine, which in my opinion is very strange as “if anything” – the fighting / conflict / killing has only escalated! What started out as people throwing rocks in the street has now progressed to full on military assaults involving helicopters, fighter jets, tanks etc….

And now “suddenly” a good part of Iraq has been taken over! Practically overnight  ISIS, the brutal insurgent/terrorist group formerly known as al Qaeda in Iraq, has seized much of western and northern Iraq with eyes now set on Baghdad. Incredible.

If not under the complete and total control of Central Bankers news like this would / should normally have “ROCKED” markets but of course…..not these days as….these aren’t “our markets”. The distance between rationality / fundamentals and “absolute ridiculous manipulation” has never been greater.

Will either of these “new wars” put a crimp in global appetite for risk? Maybe we should throw in the World Bank’s recent “slashing” of global growth prospects as well. 2014 estimates slashed from 3.2% to 2.8% – with the U.S specifically cut from 2.8% to 2.1%.

Is that even considered growth?

Looking ahead…..this thing is a train wreck “slowly gathering speed”.

Those on the sidelines should actually consider themselves lucky.

The Central Banking Casino: Where Fundamentals Go to Die

This market has become nothing more than a puppet show, with strings pulled by central bankers who have completely divorced price action from reality. When military conflict spreads across multiple continents and the World Bank slashes growth forecasts, yet stocks barely flinch — you know you’re witnessing the death of legitimate price discovery.

The Fed and its global counterparts have created a monster they can no longer control. Every dip gets bought, every crisis gets ignored, and every piece of genuinely bearish news gets swept under the rug by another round of liquidity injections. This isn’t investing anymore — it’s financial theater.

The USD’s False Strength Narrative

While everyone’s mesmerized by the market’s refusal to acknowledge reality, the real story is playing out in currencies. The dollar’s recent strength is pure illusion, propped up by the same artificial mechanisms keeping equities afloat. When USD weakness finally reveals itself, the unwinding will be spectacular.

Smart money is already positioning for this reversal. The fundamentals don’t support dollar strength when U.S. growth is being revised down to anemic levels. Iraq’s instability should be driving oil higher and pressuring the greenback, but intervention keeps everything artificially contained. This pressure is building to explosive levels.

Gold’s Silent Accumulation Phase

While markets ignore geopolitical chaos, central banks worldwide are quietly hoarding gold at unprecedented rates. They understand what retail investors don’t — paper currencies are losing credibility fast. Every conflict, every growth downgrade, every intervention makes the case for hard assets stronger.

The disconnect between gold’s muted response and escalating global tensions isn’t sustainable. When the manipulation finally breaks, precious metals will catch up to reality in violent fashion. Metal moves are coming, and they’ll be explosive when they arrive.

Risk Assets Living on Borrowed Time

Equities continue their zombie march higher, completely detached from deteriorating fundamentals. Corporate earnings are getting squeezed by slower growth, yet valuations keep expanding. This is the textbook definition of a bubble in its final stages.

The risk-off trade that should have materialized weeks ago is being artificially suppressed. When natural market forces finally reassert themselves, the correction will be swift and merciless. Those buying these levels are walking into a buzz saw.

The Endgame Approaches

Every intervention requires more intervention. Every manipulation demands greater manipulation. The central bankers have painted themselves into a corner with no clean exit strategy. They’ve created a market that can’t function without constant life support.

The 2.1% U.S. growth forecast is laughably optimistic given current conditions. Real growth is probably negative when you strip away the financial engineering. Meanwhile, conflicts are spreading, commodities are being artificially suppressed, and currencies are completely mispriced.

This entire structure is becoming increasingly unstable. The gap between perception and reality has never been wider. When confidence finally cracks — and it will crack — the adjustment will be historic. Position accordingly, because this house of cards is running out of time.

Those sitting in cash aren’t missing out on gains — they’re avoiding catastrophic losses. The smart money is already preparing for what comes next, while the masses keep buying into manufactured optimism. The train wreck Kong mentioned isn’t just gathering speed — it’s approaching the station.

You know….It’s pretty tough to teach someone to “grow a pair”.

There will always be that certain kind of person….afraid to stand to close to the edge, scared half to death of “doing something different”, completely freaked out about “most anything” that hasn’t already  been tried, tested and proven “safe”. A real “straight edge” if you know what I’m getting at. A real “puss-puss” in other terms. You know what I’m talking about? You know someone like this?

Imagine…….

What a complete and total bore.

What kills me, is when these kinds of people “somehow” stumble into the trading / investing / financial world with actual hopes of succeeding! Like they expect “for whatever reason” that the world will be kind to them and help them along. The complete and total misconception that “everything will be alright” and “if I just stay positive…everything is going to be fine”.

( sound of iratating buzzer going off on some ridiculous game show ) Beeeeegh!!

Wrong. You lose. Thanks for coming out. Please exit stage left, and don’t let the door smack your ass on the way out.

Puss- puss’s don’t win, and from what I’ve come to understand….there’s no changing them. Once a puss-puss “always” a puss puss.

This thing is a street fight. You’ve got to imagine yourself with a skull half bashed in “swinging for the fences” against 4 or 5 guys twice your size ( true story by the way ) lookin to make you go “bye bye” for good!

You need to fight! You need to grow a freakin pair!

I can show you what I’m doing……and I can tell you what I think. But it’s you and only you!…..that needs to push the buttons.

Faith is bullshit, and last time I looked – balls are real.

The Trading Street Fight: When Markets Test Your Metal

Trading isn’t therapy. It isn’t meditation. It sure as hell isn’t a place where participation trophies exist. This is where capital flows to those with the stones to take it, and away from those too scared to make a real move.

The forex market specifically will chew you up and spit you out faster than you can say “risk management.” EUR/USD doesn’t care about your feelings. GBP/JPY won’t coddle you through a losing streak. These pairs move based on central bank decisions, economic data, and geopolitical chaos – not on whether you’re having a good day.

The Psychology of Market Warfare

Every successful trader I know has that same look in their eyes. It’s the look of someone who’s been beaten down by the market, lost money they couldn’t afford to lose, and came back swinging harder. They understand that USD weakness creates opportunity, but only if you’re positioned correctly and have the guts to hold through the volatility.

The weak hands fold at the first sign of trouble. They see their EUR/USD long position drop 50 pips and panic. They close trades at break-even when they should be adding to winners. They overthink every setup until the opportunity passes them by.

Risk Is Your Best Friend

Here’s what the scared money doesn’t understand: risk isn’t something to avoid – it’s something to manage and exploit. When everyone else is running for the exits, that’s when the real money gets made. When central banks are dovish and currencies are in free fall, the prepared trader is already positioned for the next move.

You want to know what separates profitable traders from the rest? They embrace uncertainty. They don’t need to know what’s going to happen next week or next month. They just need to know their edge, their risk tolerance, and when to pull the trigger.

The Technical Reality

Charts don’t lie, but they don’t tell fairy tales either. Support and resistance levels are battle lines. When price breaks through major levels, it’s not gentle – it’s violent. Stop losses get triggered, margin calls start flying, and weak positions get liquidated without mercy.

The successful traders are the ones adding to positions when others are puking. They’re the ones who see a market bottom forming and have the conviction to act on it, even when the financial media is screaming doom and gloom.

Execution Under Fire

When your trade is underwater and the market is moving against you, that’s when character shows up. The weak trader starts bargaining with the market, moving stop losses, hoping for a miracle. The strong trader either adds to the position if their analysis is still valid, or cuts the loss and moves on to the next setup.

Trading isn’t about being right all the time – it’s about making money over time. That requires discipline, risk management, and the stones to take profits when you have them and cut losses when you need to.

The market will test you. It will find your weaknesses and exploit them. It will make you question everything you think you know about price action and market dynamics. The question isn’t whether you’ll face these tests – it’s whether you’ll have what it takes to pass them.

Stop looking for guarantees. Stop seeking comfort. Start embracing the chaos and developing the mental toughness to profit from it. Because in the end, the market rewards those who can handle the heat and stay in the kitchen when things get ugly.

We’ve touched on this pair here a couple of times throughout the past year, as it falls under the category of “face ripper” in my books.

This thing can move “several hundred pips” in a given 24 hour period, and has the tendency to “literally” rip your face off if you don’t keep your eyes peeled.

Well….

If a person was “so inclined” to enter a trade right around now…oh I don’t know lets say “long GBP/AUD at 1.79 with a full 100 pips stop ( a single penny stop in forex terms) I glady welcome “the showers of thanks” to follow.

One needs to keep in mind …..you “could” get your face ripped off but…..

I think you’ll be ok….this time.

The GBP/AUD Volatility Machine: Why This Pair Separates Winners From Wannabes

Understanding the Beast: What Drives These Massive Swings

GBP/AUD isn’t your grandmother’s currency pair. While rookie traders chase EUR/USD for its “stability,” the smart money knows where the real action lives. This cross combines two of the world’s most volatile economies—Britain’s post-Brexit uncertainty machine and Australia’s commodity-driven rollercoaster. When these forces collide, you get price movements that can fund your retirement or send you back to flipping burgers.

The current setup at 1.79 isn’t just another random level. It’s sitting right where institutional money has been building positions for weeks. The Aussie dollar has been getting hammered by China’s economic slowdown, while the pound is finally showing some backbone after months of political theater. This creates the perfect storm for a sustained upward move—if you’ve got the stomach for it.

Risk Management: Your Survival Guide in Volatile Waters

That 100 pip stop isn’t a suggestion—it’s your lifeline. Most traders think they’re being conservative with 20-30 pip stops on this pair, then watch in horror as normal daily volatility stops them out before lunch. GBP/AUD can swing 150 pips on a quiet Tuesday, so anything less than 100 pips is basically gambling with your mortgage payment.

The key is position sizing. If a 100 pip stop feels too big, you’re trading too heavy. Cut your position size in half, then cut it in half again. This pair demands respect, and respect means trading small enough that you can sleep at night. The profits will come—they always do when you’re on the right side of a major move.

Technical Confluence: Why 1.79 Is the Line in the Sand

Look at the weekly chart and you’ll see what the smart money already knows. We’re sitting on a major support level that’s held for months, right where the 200-week moving average is providing a launching pad. The recent USD weakness has created a perfect environment for risk currencies to flourish, and GBP/AUD is positioned to be the biggest beneficiary.

The daily momentum indicators are showing early signs of a reversal, with RSI climbing out of oversold territory and MACD starting to curl higher. This isn’t some hopeful wishful thinking—it’s the same setup that preceded the last major rally that took this pair from 1.75 to 1.95 in six weeks.

The Bigger Picture: Riding the Next Major Wave

This trade isn’t about making a quick 50 pips and calling it a day. We’re potentially at the start of a multi-month rally that could see GBP/AUD challenge the 1.90-1.95 zone. The fundamental backdrop supports this view—Australia’s interest rate cycle is peaking while the UK is showing signs of economic stabilization after years of chaos.

The rally setup in global markets is providing additional tailwinds. When risk appetite returns, high-beta pairs like GBP/AUD typically lead the charge. The institutional money is already positioning for this move—the question is whether retail traders are smart enough to follow.

Remember, this pair doesn’t move in straight lines. Expect pullbacks, expect volatility, expect moments where you question your sanity. But if you’re right about the bigger picture, those temporary setbacks become buying opportunities. The face-ripping moves work both ways—and right now, they’re setting up to work in our favor.

Keep your stops tight, your position size reasonable, and your eyes on the prize. This is what separates the professionals from the pretenders.