Anyone who hasn’t already learned their lesson “this summer” can simply file it away for next year. You’ve learned something right? You’ve learned that you just can’t “make” markets move…no matter how badly you are scratching to hit those buttons! Markets suck during the summer, and I don’t care what anyone else has to say about. I know. I continue to survive – picking my shots when most likely to see reward….staying out of trouble when volume is low.

Summer is no time for big moves / big trades or big expectations. Take it. Learn from it…and consider yourself a better trader.Done deal.

Looking ahead….as much as it pains me to admit it…..this thing continues to pull in retailers at an incredible clip, and has every likelihood of blowing expectations “TO THE UPSIDE”.

All the pieces are in place really….as I receive more and more inquiries from old friends across the planet asking me for investment assistance “scared shitless” that they’re gonna miss out – as their broker just called with another hot deal.

All the makings of one incredible “blow off top / blast for the stars rip” as the last of the retail gang get’s off the couch with their 2k nest eggs. Sad in a sense as……these poor folk are very often buying the top and unable to act quickly enough to book profits before the fall. Seeing it s many times in the past…..it’s a cycle and it ALWAYS repeats.

I got bumped ( obviously ) on the last lil trade with The U.S Dollar ‘s continued fall. Certainly didn’t expect another daily cycle down, but that should be the last before both USD and U.S Stocks pop to the upside.

Charts? I got nothin……short of wishing I could chart my continued boredom / lack of participation vs some idiot out there pushing buttons all summer. Profits dick-head? I think not.

I will plow you in the face – the next dumb ass giving me a hard time in the comments section believe me. I’ve gotten on planes to “make things right” for a lot less.

Cool your jets kiddies….I’m back, and will be lighting it up again here shortly.

Chill.

Well well well…..it looks as though USD has finally, FINALLY found its bottom.

I can pull out a number of fantastic correlations / trades in the currency market ‘specific to USD’ but at this point in time…..the general market movement / usual correlations will be saved for another day – as we’ve all seen a number of these fall apart as of late.

Gold has fallen consistently “with” USD which in most cases makes no sense, tech stocks have been clobbered and considering the buoyancy in markets in general….have NOT been actively participating.

EUR/USD pretty straight forward here: SAFE TO SHORT

                                                                                  safe to short EUR

Markets continue to trade in “good ol summer fashion” leaving most traders scratching their heads looking for direction.

It’s nuts out there! You know it, I know it.

You’d think an intermediate bottom in USD would send Gold decidedly lower…but even there….gold has landed near an area of support so…..we’ve got some “rotation” going here, and need to take the time to figure out –  WHERE IS THE MONEY GOING NEXT?

Risk trade in AUD/JPY would appear to have hit resistance but…..nothing to write home about.

                                                                                Risk Trade in AUD/JPY

It “almost looks to me” like a bottom in USD might amount to more U.S stocks being sold, and in turn US dollar reserves moving higher, while gold stays flat but….that’s pure speculation.

We need another day er two to see how things unfold from here. I’m short EUR/USD – and that’s it!

Personally….I rarely look at this pair as any, “ANY indication” of larger market moves or global appetite for risk as – these are they two most widely held reserve type currencies on the planet, and their comparable  movement does nothing for me / my analysis or for the most part….my account.

Regardless….

The general “forex media / forex industry” promotes the trading of this pair like there’s no tomorrow, and new traders tend to love it. Don’t ask me why. Well ok ask me why…..cuz they don’t know anything about forex before they start trading it!

So if the coming move in forex markets “in general” can be at all illustrated for you “new comers” via this pair – take a look at the weekly chart of EUR/USD:

Resistance Ahead For EUR

See that big red candle back near the first part of October? The one with the tall “wick” on it? High of 1.1305? Then looking back…..see the confluence area surrounding this price level “rough and nasty”?

Great.

Now check Gold:

Resistance For Gold

Now USD:

Support For USD

These are the kinds of “large time frame” areas of support and resistance where you can start considering some “serious” trading . Not getting bogged down in the short-term flutters, if you can just manage to keep your friggin hands off the mouse for a day er two!

Not much more to be said here. You know what I’m getting at as this trade is getting very close.

It’s the “knowing ahead of time” and the “recognition” that these levels and correlations exist that will elevate your short term trading as you should “already know” the levels to watch for reversal. THEN pop down to your 1H charts and plot your entry.

Eur set to top. Gold set to top. USD set to bottom for a solid “medium term trade” so……start eyeing these charts for their reversal on the 1H at the bare minimum before even considering entry.

You owe me big time.

Market euphoria has now lead to a complete and total collapse in volatility.

Volatility rises when people get scared. No one appears to be very scared as volatility is now at an “all time low” ( obviously correlation with markets being near all time highs ) – Get it?

Isn’t this about the time one starts thinking…hmmm….no one is scared, volatility at all time low, markets at all time highs….hmmm…..thinking, thinking….hey! Let’s start looking at buying some volatility around here!

Volatility Has Crashed

One can only assume we are getting very close to a reasonable bounce in volatility as – markets never change. Just when you think it’s safe…..boom – things head in the opposite direction.

Watch that Nikkei. Watch that AUD/JPY as well USD/JPY and add volatility to your short list ’round these levels.

A lil bit of UVXY here over coming days? I like it.