intermarket analysis

Global Market Insight – CNBC Is Dead

Forex Kong 5 Comments

With nearly 60% of Forex Kong traffic / readership coming from outside the U.S, we are a truly international bunch. I take tremendous pride in this, as the broad scope of  information shared here from “people in the know” and “on the ground” in their native land’s holds tremendous value. When our man in Australia pounds out some solid numbers on housing, or the current sentiment on China etc – you can generally take this stuff to the bank.

I want to thank each and every one of you (this means you Schmed!) who have taken the time to contribute here – and encourage you to continue doing so. Considering the absolute nonsense being spilled out of the U.S daily – we are truly “an oasis” in a sea of misinformation and deceit. Something we can all be proud of.

On that note, I occasionally tune in to “CNBC” to get a quick read on the current “news stories/headlines” being peddled to the general American populus – and can usually bare it for 10 maybe 15 minutes tops. They actually state that sound investment principles would have you buying stocks on the sole basis that “Bernanke has got your back”.

“Bernanke has got your back”. That’s the investment thesis. That’s the plan. That’s the “right thing to do”. I can honestly say that I have never in my life heard something so absolutely absurd. Brilliant! A single man working for a private bank, systematically destroying a currency is the “hot investment strategy” of the day. I may now be sick.

CNBC viewership has imploded recently to it’s absolute lowest level since 2005, with really no end in sight – so perhaps there is some hope that people are looking for “legit information” elsewhere. We can only hope.

This from our friends at ZeroHedge:

Kong_On_CNBC

Kong_On_CNBC

Let’s keep things global people – CNBC is dead.

Largest One Day Gains Of My Career

Forex Kong 21 Comments

I have been on and on about USD weakness broiling underneath the “gong show” of American monetary policy, as well the coordinated “media spin” aimed at liquidating your retirement accounts.

There will be no tapering. The Fed will increase it’s QE programs moving forward. Global growth is on the decline. The cycle has shown its “ugly face” – and Kong has enjoyed the absolute #1 most profitable day on record – booking a whopping 11% on combined trades ( built over time as per my entry strategy) based purely on the fundamentals and my short term tech doing its job.

I have little else to say this evening – only that patience and a keen eye on the “macro fundamentals” has proven a winning combination as of this moment.

Currency movement has again lead the way (with respect to forecasting future movements in markets)  and has rewarded those “patient enough” to slug it out in the trenches.

It’s time for celebration on this end. All too deserving if one chooses to put in the time.

I truly hope that you have done as well yourselves.

Today marks the largest single one day returns of my entire career.

I hope yours as well!

Kong…………strong!

 

 

 

Taper Talk – Believe It Or Not

Forex Kong 1 Comment

Doesn’t it always seem to go like this.

Just when you feel you’ve got things ironed out, and have put some larger plans in motion – sure enough (it never fails) something pops up that starts to get you thinking again – wait a minute….have I got this right?”

The Fed’s “taper talks” have certainly been working their magic in that regard, as the Internet now buzzes with new analysis on the U.S Dollar, fancy charts with arrow pointing up , up , up and suddenly (practically overnight) the U.S data is “all positive” and most certainly the Fed will begin “making its exit” in September. Done deal. As simple as that.

Ok – well…….what does that mean to the average investor?  Wasn’t it just last week that “more QE” is what the street was looking for? This being a “fed sponsored rally” does that mean the rally is ending? Or is “tapering” a good thing for markets?

The orchestration is truly brilliant in its design, and if you stopped to ask 10 different people on the street what it actually means to them – I’m sure the answers would be a resounding “I have no frickin idea” right across the board. Keep people confused. Keep things cloudy, and let the market do what it’s designed to do.

At this point it’s really a matter of “if you actually believe the talk or not” and how you would then go about positioning yourself. I for one am quite confident that it’s actually the opposite which is soon to take place – and the Fed will be introducing additional measures to keep interest rates from rising, and to keep the dollar tamed.

“QE 5” I’m calling it.

Either way you cut it – “Taper talk” is the current riddle to decode.

I wonder what’s next?

Japanese Candle Sticks – Get To Know Them

Forex Kong 7 Comments

Every trader has their own “favorite type” of technical analysis to apply when viewing charts, and that’s great. However it’s been my experience that having only one “go to analysis tool” is generally not enough to get an accurate read on things – technically speaking.

You need to see things from several perspectives and apply your knowledge of at least a couple different methods of analysis in order to make sense of it all.

I follow price action almost exclusively – and have very little in the way of other “indicators” on my charts short of the “Kongdicator” (my proprietary short term tech tool) which “does” essentially follow pure price action.

Japanese candles are a very large part of my “graphical / visual” evaluation of markets action as with a simple glance, one is able to deduce:

  • The high of the given time frame
  • The low of the given time frame
  • The opening price of the given time frame
  • The closing price of the given time frame

*and even more importantly – the “difference / variance” in price over time – purely in a visual context.

So when you see a candle ( your eyes get so used to identifying them over time) that suggest to you “hey! in the last 4 hours price has jumped dramatically (or perhaps the inverse) – you take notice!

Google’em – there are piles of excellent websites outlining Japanese Candles – and how to use them!

$USD Weakness – Here's Your Chance

Forex Kong 20 Comments

I wish things moved a lot faster at times too, as that I wouldn’t continue to sound like a broken record here….but it is what it is.

You may find yourself watching the daily levels on a given stock market index as means to gauge how things are going, or perhaps you watch bonds. Unfortunately for me, the U.S dollar with its predominant role as the world’s reserve currency is something I need to remain focused on. It does get a little boring at times – no question about that BUT! If you’ve tuned in over recent months – the accuracy of trade entries and market timing has been strong enough to keep in beers and tacos through some pretty rough patches.

Here we sit.

As suggested yesterday my eyes are keenly focused on USD, and in turn every other asset class as these days “even more than ever” – a lot hinges on where we see the dollar going. In fact – EVERYTHING hinges on it these days.

Hopefully I can find more interesting things to talk about in coming days, as USD looks to be doing exactly what I expected it to do here at these levels. USD is reversing and if today’s action is any indication – of the correlations / options I laid out yesterday – Stocks look set to reverse along with it.

I’ve held a number of short USD trades for several days now as my “round 1” entries where at least a couple of days early. I’ve traded very small and have every intention of just letting this run it’s course – and adding to existing positions as my direction confirms.

You are going to see some very, very , very strange moves in Forex markets here on this turn as a number of “cross currents” come into play – that will challenge any measure of logic. Imagine USD heading lower as well stocks in what would appear to be a risk off move…coupled with AUD and NZD moving higher? That is nuts.

Trading The Week Ahead – Forex, Gold , Stocks

Forex Kong 32 Comments

This is going to be a huge week and you’ll need to be ready.

Regardless of which asset class you’re currently trading or holding – I strongly suggest that you’ve got your eyes open and your “fingers on the button” as my expectations for the coming week include fireworks, tidal waves , meteorites and circus clowns.

As early as Tuesday, I’ve got it that things are going hard in one direction or another, and at break neck speed may clean out your accounts or make you filthy rich. If the week goes by trading flat – I will post video of myself eating an entire handful of raw Habanero peppers, and subsequently dieing shortly there afterwards.

The most significant concern will be that of the “existing correlations” and weather or not this “proposed turn” will have them turn on their heads – or continue as they have recently.

Let’s have a look.

  • USD is going to turn lower here, the question is “will stocks turn lower along side USD”?
  • USD is going to turn lower here, and another question is “will that in turn have JPY move higher”?
  • USD is going to turn lower here, and yet another question is “will gold finally find support and move higher”?

I think you’ve gather how I feel about the U.S Dollar – as I have absolutely no question at all that it will head lower, but am concerned that the “flipside” of this move “could” go like this as well:

  • USD down and US stocks up ( if a “true” risk rally develops then we’d also see commod currencies head for the moon too.)
  • USD down AND JPY down ( if a “true” risk rally develops then BOTH safe haven currencies will be sold and again the commods will head for the moon.)
  • USD and Gold up ( in this case if a “true” risk rally develops then the normal correlation as to the value of gold in dollar terms may finally make a showing.)

So – all eyes on the U.S Dollar here as everything else will quickly come into focus as soon as we see the turn.

Frankly, I’m on the fence about it and can’t say for certain which way things are going to go – but will be watching very, very closely and will post / tweet literally at the very second that I confirm the move.

 

 

For The Love Of Trading

Forex Kong 4 Comments

You really do have to love it.

Getting in there and slugging it out day after day takes a considerable amount of mental energy,  the ability to remain disciplined, means to handle your emotions and undoubtedly a “love for the sport” – as you’d likely be crazy to consider doing it otherwise.

I had suggested in previous posts that 2013 was going to be extremely difficult to navigate, and that many would unlikely have the ability to trade it well – or even trade it at all. I myself have been challenged on numerous occasions so far this year, and it doesn’t appear that things are going to get much easier.

Perhaps today we will get our “bounce” in USD as well risk in general – as both USD and JPY have more or less been trading flat here, and the commodity currencies continue to struggle.

You want to see strong moves in both AUD as well NZD as solid confirmation that the world is buying risk. An “up day” in the U.S stock markets isn’t gonna cut it.

My feelings are that the larger money isn’t interested in any “realllocation” back into these currencies ( as both have taken a considerable beating over the past weeks ) – and are likely sitting on the sidelines (much like myself) looking for a touch higher prices to continue selling at.

U.S Bond Auctions – Part 2

Forex Kong 6 Comments

Ok…let’s get back down to the auction hall for a minute, and quickly envision we are in attendance at an auction where everybody and their dog wants the bonds that are for sale. I’m picturing something like you see at those big American auto auctions with colored ribbons flying everywhere, thousands of spectators, the lights, the energy , the electricity in the air! woohoo! Ok now we are talking! Let’s get in there and buy ourselves some bonds! Woooohooo! I’m buying bonds!

We’ve got China…I see Japan, Brazil! There’s Switzerland! Canada’s here! Norway! France! Holy shit! The entire planet is going crazy for these bonds! I gotta get my bid in! I’ve gotta get noticed here – I need to get those bonds!

Ok I need to relax.

Obviously this is not the case – but you can appreciate that under “normal circumstances” the purchase of U.S bonds / debt has had much greater appeal in the past, and that a “bond auction” would include a host of other characters aside from a lone bearded man in a Radio Shack suit, loafers with a vinyl duffle bag. By way of  sheer competitive bidding, the prices of bonds stays high – the rate of interest needed to be paid stays low.

A healthy, attractive investment environment in a country that is flourishing – attracts sizeable interest in its bonds. The bondholders win with a secure investment, and the country issuing the bonds wins with its ability to raise money, with very low rates of interest needed to be paid.

Trouble is – when a country can’t attract interest in its bonds, they are then forced to “incentivize” these purchases by raising the rate of interest paid out! In order to get the inflow of foreign purchases in bonds…the price of the bond falls…and the rate of interest needed to be paid out increases. (For example at one point during their crisis – Greek bonds payout rate climbed as high as 27%! – which we all know is unsustainable)

As much as you may have heard of the Fed’s current strategy of “stimulating the economy” with its bond buying – nothing could be further from the truth. The Fed is printing dollars to buy bonds as to not let the planet at large see/realize what real trouble the U.S  is in. If the Fed stopped buying bonds ( like 80 some % of available bonds every month ) the rate of interest would rise so rapidly as to signal the entire planets investment community ( much like in Greece ) – My god! – Something is very wrong over there! Look at those bond rates! If a Government has to offer such a high rate of return on its debt – things must be going down! Big time!

Frankly,everyone already knows this but the point being – the Fed cannot possibly stop its bond buying purchases now, as there is no one else there to buy them.

Unless they are prepared for complete and total “meltdown” and are willing to just face the music – the can will be kicked along a little further, then further – until the rest of the world makes the decision for them.

And the bond hall is “closed for renevations or until further notice”.

U.S Bond Auctions – A Dark Empty Hall

Forex Kong 1 Comment

In a general sense, when a government needs to raise money (outside the revenues gained from tax collection) it’s pretty common practice for that government to issue and sell bonds. In the case of the United States – The Treasury Department ( a branch of the U.S government ) prints up the paper bonds (which offer a small return of interest to potential buyers) and heads on down to the local “Bond Auction” hoping to sell the bonds to the highest bidder.

The higher the price paid for the bond equates to the lower the interest rate paid out on the bond  (this is just how the bond market is set up) so in general the Government wants to sell the bonds for the best price / lowest rate that it can, ensuring  revenue from the sale – but at the lowest possible interest needed to be paid back.

Straight up. Government needs more cash to spend. Treasury Dept  prints up bonds. Bonds are sold at auction to any and all who are interested in the purchase of the given countries debt.

In the case of the United States and the current “Quantitative Easing” strategies being employed – Mr. Bernanke and The Federal Reserve ( which is a private bank for profit  – holding a monopoly on the creation of money, and not a branch of government in any way shape of form) prints money directly out of thin air, packs up their suitcase of “funny money” and heads on down to the auction floor to slug it out with the rest of em.

Trouble is, you can hear a pin drop out there in the auction hall as Mr. Bernanke is the only one who showed up. Sitting alone on a rickety ol fold-out chair with his suit case full of freshly printed dollars………no one else has come to bid, as few (if any) are interested in the purchase of U.S Government debt.

The auction is a bust.

Totally embarrassed the “auctioneer” and Mr. Bernanke make a quick “verbal agreement” on price for virtually “all the bonds available ” – the janitor starts sweeping up and the auction is concluded. The Treasury guy heads back to Washington with a suitcase full of conterfeit money, and the Federal Reserve heads home with a duffle bag full of useless paper.

This is just another “Kong’ish explanation” fair enough – but I feel it important for you to understand (and will take a chance here this weekend in going another step further to explain) the implications and ramifications of this dark and and empty U.S bond auction hall.

ooooooooh! – U.S Bond Auction Part 2 

QE5 – The Puppet Show Continues

Forex Kong 2 Comments

Come Wednesday markets get another chance to hear from Mr. Bernanke at the press conference following the June FOMC meeting.

It pains me deeply to consider how many individuals will be hanging on every word, with hopes of  reaching their financial / trading / investing goals – all wrapped up in a single man’s remarks.  It’s sad really. It’s almost as though the idea of markets actually trading based on the performance of the companies therein – has been completely and totally forgotten. I would even go as far as to suggest there are an entirely new group of “youthful traders” out there that may not know any different! All “fully invested” only on the premise that “Ben’s gonna watch their backs”. Oh my……

What also kills me is the suggestion that this recent “dip” has been manufactured in the media / by the Fed in an attempt to “gauge” the general investors community reaction to the idea of “less stimulus” – talk about a puppet show!

It really is a puppet show! Pull the strings up….see what happens..let the strings down….see what happens. Sick.

I’ll stick with the general “forecast” that with markets still practially at all time highs – there will be no further mention of stimulus on Wednesday..but likely comments suggesting ” we are ready when needed”. How the markets take it at this point  – again….perhaps that “final pop” bringing in the last of the retails before giving things a good flush.

I’m gonna play a bounce in USD, but keep things on a tight leash as I remain medium term about as bearish as a gorilla can be. Any strength in over all “risk appetite” in coming days can only be seen as even better areas to continue selling.