Short And Sweet – Forex Profits Galore

I’m looking for a little feedback here today.

I’m hoping to see / hear from some of you / possibly frustrated Forex traders, who’ve been following closely this week.

I hope you’ve taken some time to follow along, and seriously consider some of the concepts/ideas thrown around here at the blog. Last nights “tweet” as to the weakness in Japan, as well all of yesterday’s conversation “should” have made for some pretty happy traders here this morning.

In particular a valued reader suggesting the information here was “useless banter” “should” be up 150 pips over night on a single trade suggestion alone.

This stuff doesn’t turn on a dime, as we’ve worked this trade since Tuesday – but the profits as of this morning “should” make a few days effort well worth it.

I plan to sit tight and let this trade develop further, as we are “now” hearing suggestion that “the Fed may not taper”.

Didn’t I say that like a couple of months ago?

F Kong – On Putin and Obama

As I understand it – Putin and Obama have made an “appearance for the camera’s” but that no “official meeting” between the two will take place.

I’d suggested some days ago that Russia will not stand by and allow this “attack on Syria” to take place, and was generally met with the opinions from most of you  – “”well Kong – the U.S is gonna do it regardless”.

Currency trading provides some pretty deep insight into “WTF” is going on in our world today, and I can tell you from my experience ( as well the countless hours reading / researching every element of our world ) that  “this time” is different.

There has been a lot of activity overseas in the past few years, particularly between Russia and China, as well a number of Middle Eastern countries “getting their sh#$t together” – if you will.

I see the “divide between east and west” stronger now – then every before in my lifetime.

Technology has played a tremendous roll. Growth in China, and the continued downturn in the west has the now “unified East” stronger, smarter, and more confident than ever.

Russia will not have this, and in my view ( with greater confidence in its relationship with China ) may just as well see this “event” as the “single event” to re assert itself as the “big boy across the oceans” – and take this one to the limit.

These are crazy times we live in – thusly……….. crazy things “will” happen.

story by F Kong

JPY And Gold – Is It Happening Now?

Consider this.

We know the Japanese stimulus program is over 3 times larger than that of the U.S Fed. Now that’s an awful lot of printing/liquidity injection coming at a time when the “U.S contribution” has pretty much run its course.

Yes the bond buying/prop plan continues in the U.S but we all know the stimulus money  more or less just sits on the balance sheets of the big banks on Wall Street. The “talk of tapering” would also have put a damper on any “impulsive buying” at this point – as we look forward to an environment where interest rates are on the rise.

As “Japanese Stimulus” is converted to U.S Dollars ( in order to buy assets denominated in USD ) we ‘ve seen “many a day” where USD is UP as well U.S Equities are higher. Makes sense right? Japanese “hot money” converted to USD to buy U.S Equities.

So what’s the “unwind” of that trade should things go to hell in a hand basket?

U.S Equities are first “sold” and USD moves considerably higher, and fast – as cash is raised. Then that “USD” is repatriated home ( converted back to the currency of its origin – in this case Japan) where we would see large flows “back into JPY”!

Gold would also move higher as USD is sold, U.S equities are sold, Japanese Equities are sold.

JPY fly’s out of orbit?

Take it for what it’s worth – I’m thinking out loud….but it doesn’t seem so difficult to get your head around. The big winners on a “risk off” trade being both JPY and Gold.

Forex Market Moves – Thursday Is The Day

Once again we find that markets have more or less traded flat through the first few days of the week – looking to Thursday’s release of U.S data for the catalyst. I’ve suggest this several times in the past, and again am asking myself “what is the point of even entering a trade these days – if not on / around Thursday?”

This sets up a relatively dangerous dynamic, as that – in the past traders would usually have considered “holding trades” over the weekend a bit of a risk. Well these days, the way things are – you really don’t have a choice. The majority of intraday moves occur in the pre-market now ( before you even get a chance to see them) and now traders are faced with the quandary of entering trades late in the week, and holding through “risk laden” weekend volatility. Talk about a tough trading environment. I’d say the toughest I’ve seen – ever.

USD movement has also held traders hostage early this week, as we teeter on the edge of a breaking point. It’s touch and go here this time, as global concerns over Syria and a handful of other “risk events” have kept us hovering at relatively crucial levels.

I’m flat as a pancake more or less – with a couple “long JPY” trades a few pips in the weeds.

The Nikkei hit suggested resistance last night, and has formed a bit of a reversal but it’s too soon to call it. I imagine we’ll get our move (one way or the other) sometime this morning after U.S data hits the news.

 

written by F Kong

Market Dynamics, Fishing – Short Term Trading

First off…..there really is no such thing as “short-term trading”.

Short term trading is a fantasy.

Sold to you much like “a get rich quick idea” or some sad example of “network marketing” where you the “client” exist purely as the client in your own mind – when actually fulfilling the role of “customer” in an industry that just sold you a dream.

You don’t get rich quick. You don’t “make easy money”. More like you “put down your money”, read a couple of forex “how to’s” – and BAM! You’ve been had.

So let’s get back to the fishing metaphor.

I can lend you my fishing rod. I could even be so kind as to take you down to a river I know….point you in the right direction,  and even help you out by suggesting a fly or two. (This is fly fishing boys….we’re artists here are we not?)

  • Do you care that the river’s a little high? Ya…it rained a lot last night. Ok…I didn’t think so.
  • Do you know “where to cast” ( as the fish hold in very specific areas along the river) ? Ok…I didn’t think so.
  • Have you ever been up past your knees in water moving “juuuuust a little faster than ya thought it might be?” Ok…I didn’t think so.
  • Have you considered “what you might actually do – should you get a bite?” Ok…I didn’t think so.

So………let me get this straight “you fancy yourself a short-term trader” then do you?

Common.

It takes years to read a river. It takes even longer to catch fish.

Man Your Stations! – Volatility Awaits!

Kong! Is USD going down? Kong! Is gold on the rocks?

Kong! Are my entire life’s savings going to wind up a smoldering pile of cinder if I don’t sell now??

Welcome my friends…….

This is what we call volatility.

Let’s face it…….this thing is a bloody mess no matter how you look at! There is no “rationalization” , no “justification” , no “orientation” – when you consider all facets ‘n factors.

We’ve got potential global war, the U.S debt ceiling, a new Fed chairman and a potentially “alien escorted comet” on track for Earth late 2013 ( please google this ) , along side elections in Germany, continued “question marks” over China’s real story……and ( if you can believe it ) a new dog living below me who’s “hell bent” on howling all hours of the day and night!

Volatility? Can anyone say volatility?

Can I get a “V” please?

There are no easy answers here. You get through these times as you’ve done in the past. You face it. You accept it…..you push through. We knew this year was going to be difficult, and now with the summer doldrums behind us guess what??

Things are about to get interesting………..real interesting.

Russia Hosts G20 – Obama To Attend?

Obama is headed for Sweden on Tuesday, then off to the next G20 meeting in…………if you can believe it – RUSSIA!

The uphill battle in looking for global support in attacking Syria looks to be moving as suggested. Britain’s out, and as suggested The U.N Security Council shows no support for the move, as well I believe NATO ( please don’t quote me as I’ve read a million stories here this morning) has also squashed the idea.

This leaves Obama “literally” on his own, as actions against Syria under these conditions would now put “HIM” in breach and violation of International Law.

I’m trying my best to wrap my head around a scenario where this quack shoots “unauthorized missiles” at a country where “proof of wrong doing” is still just a “headline in U.S news” , and then plans to sit around a table with other world leaders at the G20 in Russia  – just a few days later.

If this Bashar al – Assad guy is a nut bar, then we’d better create another category of “nut bars” for Obama.

You’d have to be out of your mind to do something like this – absolutely out of your mind.

My Readers -Thank You For This

If the age-old saying that “idle hands are the devils workshop” holds any truth, I imagine myself a “shoo in” for the lead role should anyone ever take it to the big screen. As a boy I usually managed to get my school work done quite quickly, spending the majority of my time “pestering the hell” out of anyone within reach.

I was bored.

I didn’t know I was bored. Only that, with little else filling my time I “always” seemed to be “reaching out” ( he he he…. ) looking for something else to occupy my mind. For the most part this usually just meant “getting into trouble”.

These days ( dare I say ) little has changed.

I don’t “do well” when I’ve got nothing to do, and considering that I’ve been more or less “out in the jungle” some 15 years now – a number of other factors have also come into play.

“Survival” is generally not something that most people consider day-to-day.

Safe n sound in the daily grind, most people “may” see the odd “touch n go situation” in their lives ( if any ), and that likely wouldn’t include hanging their asses and entire life’s worth/savings on the line DAILY – choosing to “trade forex” as a means to get by.

Some might say it’s crazy….but for me “anything less crazy” would likely have me “well down the path” with our “pointy tailed friend in the red suit”………….and we don’t want that.

I want to thank everyone who reads here, and that contributes here.

This blog has become a significant part of my daily life – a good part of my life.

Thank you for this.

Kong……strong.

USD Surge – A Test Of My Resolve

There will come a time in our “not so distant future” that I will shift my trades and longer term strategy to consider a strong USD. Not today though.

I ‘d originally posted / suggested that perhaps some time late Sept, that USD would finally find its near term low – and “do what currencies do” making a solid move in the opposite direction. The surge in USD buying over night will have taken out a large number of smaller players , and has also left me in the red on a couple of outstanding trades. Is this the start of the “real move” higher in USD? I don’t think so.

Yes we’ve seen a trend line breached, and yes the “likelihood of war” could certainly be the event that spurs true safe haven positioning ( of which USD still acts as the world’s reserve currency so…. ) – this still remains to be seen.

Does the “suddenly positive” data released this morning on U.S GDP as well unemployment claims have anything to do with it?

Would the fact that “gold has swung low on a monthly chart” ( a fairly significant dynamic when price has moved higher than last month’s high) provide an interesting point / price area to “shake the tree” a bit? Makes sense to me.

The key is not to make any big decisions until the picture is made clear. If a single day’s trading doesn’t go your way, drastically affecting your account balance – you’re trading far to large / leveraged.

We don’t do that around here.

I’ll let this “sell back off” and see where things sit later in the day / evening. My “hunch” is we’ve seen a lil surge/wiped a pile of small traders off the map, and that things will continue in the same direction.

 

 

Fed Buys 5.1 Billion And Market Tanks

Seriously.

The U.S Federal Reserve just made 5.1 BILLION DOLLARS in treasury/bond purchases today alone…….5.1 BILLION DOLLARS worth of straight up “funny money” injected into the system today alone.

Markets tank.

Short and sweet here this morning.

If you’re buying this I’ve got some primo swamp land in Florida I’d love you to take a look at!

I’m up 4% on “risk off” here.

How you stock bulls makin out?

Getting smashed….and don’t let’em tell you otherwise.