Some of you follow cycles, some of you follow astrology. Some of you follow “clown ass donkeys” ’round the internet – looking for advice.
Followers.
Follow this:
I think this thing “kacks out” right around here ( price level wise ) and we get set to follow something alright……..something going lower.
We’ve failed.
The intermediate ( medium term cycle ) has failed and we’ve bounced. Barely bounced.
Risk move lower. Stocks move lower. Dollar tanks. Yen runs…
Monday……. trades get picked up!
With over a month of inactivity short of holding the same positions, the same strategy as outlined here countless numbers of times – our old friend The U.S Dollar has done us proud.
The “dumb buck” has lost some 1000 pips v.s the Japanese Yen since markets topped some months ago, and has made an equally bad showing against the majority of its rivals.
This has only just begun.
You may recall chatter some months ago about China and a number of other countries moving away from use of The Dollar in international trade, and recent news suggests that now Iran ( with sanctions being lifted ) is looking to sell its oil in Euro only.
Unfortunately you just can’t have it both ways.
Things will only spiral further down the drain when U.S interest rates go negative ( where essentially they are already if you consider inflation ) and The Fed looks to launch QE5.
All those worthless dollars already printed…..and a shit pile more coming soon – to an unemployment office near you. This is no time to be disappointed or upset! Rejoice in your new-found knowledge that the entire “economic recovery” has been a complete and total sham, and be glad you made the realization early enough to survive.
Have you survived? I hope so.
And it’s really not too late…unless of course you are still of the mindset that “The Central Banks” have got your back well then…….one would think you’d of learned your lesson over the past month er so.
Earth is selling off hard. There isn’t a damn thing “they” or “anyone” can do about it.
Global stock markets are literally “tanking daily” and in my view things are just getting started.
From a technical perspective we’ve only just “shaved the top” off this mountain off bullshit, now with The SP 500 still hanging around the neckline area of support – but that won’t last much longer.
New lows…..then even “lower lows” to follow as The U.S Dollar plummets, Japanese Yen come flooding back to the country where they were printed, Euro and GBP remain elevated and the commodity related “currencies” trade flat.
A low in oil at some point ( correlating with the dump in USD ) won’t mean the markets will recover…not in the slightest as oil will then just bounce along said bottom for eternity. No immediate opportunities there.
People are flat busted, food prices are “out of this world” and global economic data is quickly turning from bad to horrific. This is not a blip. This is not a “correction”. This is not a drill.
This is 2016 baby….and it will be one for the books.
Dollar_No_More
It’s been a great run, but markets look set to bounce here with the SP 500 finding support area around 1880.
Long JPY trades closed, as a “swing low” on daily charts ( when tomorrow’s closes “higher” than today’s high ) should confirm a short-term move to the upside.
This will be a bounce, but considering volatility these days one can’t say for certain just how “big a bounce”.
Technical damage to markets is massive. I expect we float /drift sideways for the next couple weeks – offering few decent trading opportunities.
Stack all the cash you’ve recently made long JPY / short risk and go hit the beach for a couple of days. You won’t miss a thing.
The weekly charts in SP 500 and Dow now clearly broken.
We move lower here….like weeks lower…so don’t get caught buying dips!
We sell rips in this environment so what you are looking for are strong “daily closes” in order to find higher levels to continue to “add short on”.
Find “max green” intra day / week to continue loading short.
Long JPY the biggest winner ( as you guys already know this! ) with Commods like AUD getting punched in the knee.
Looming buys in both EUR and GBP vs USD but likely not for a few days…..legging in as soon as this evening / late afternoon tomorrow.
A fantastic start to the new year with equity markets in particular – showing their hands early.
Today looks fantastic as currency markets are essentially `giving us the day to catch up`….with little movement in USD itself – but OBVIOUS movement in JPY as risk sells off hard.
You guys know this…..this should look very straight forward at this point as the clear trade is still Long JPY vs Commods….as well short USD coming up here again soon.
These pairs are a given as risk falls off the cliff, while we get another full day ( or two more perhaps ) before USD rolls over and `those` pairs get added to the pile.
I wish it was more exciting at times too folks…however after a time…this just gets redundant.
We are going lower…..days lower…….weeks lower.
Forex_Kong_Face_Book
I have closed all positions Long JPY ( thousands of pips profit in total ) as well all USD trades and am now 100% in cash.
Tomorrow, potentially brings with it one of the largest “market moving” events/announcements of not only this past year….but perhaps even the last 10 years – as The U.S Fed looks to either “raise interest rates” ( .25 token move if at all ) or sit tight.
Either way ( once the dust settles ) it’s all bad news for USD and likely risk in general.
I have no opinion on it…..as it makes absolutely no difference to me.
The U.S Dollar is no longer viewed as a safe haven. Further QE is coming……so tomorrow is just another day.
I do however recommend “what ever you decide to do” – do yourself a favor and wait until “at least” Asian markets express their views or likely even better….the following day in U.S trading closer to the closing bell.
There is no trade until the fireworks end. …unless of course you enjoy having things blow up in your face.
I’m not much for that.
Good luck everyone!
Forex_Kong_Face_Book
The Japanese Nikkei Index is down nearly 3% ( -525 ) and it’s not even lunch time in Japan.
Care for a dynamite roll? Lol. Markets are imploding.
As suggested here countless times in the past…..just tune into to The Nikkei on Sunday nights for your early morning trade strategies there in the U.S. as it would be a very rare occasion that such destruction over seas doesn’t hit the shores of America come sunrise. When will you expand your circles of influence wide enough to truly get a grasp on this thing we call a “global economy”?
CNBC and the Wall St. Journal just won’t cut it girls.
I am making “sick money” long JPY since last week ( you could be too ……..but wait….the trade involved discussion/concepts of something “asian” so……its more than likely you “let nothing but patriotism stop you” ) – bleeeep! Red button. Some silly buzzer going off on some hilarious Japanese game show set – YOU LOSE Honky.
It’s a “global economy”! You seriously don’t believe it? How long can the television continue to guide you?
Now I’m not asking you to consider ducking out on your “trailer pad rental”, packing up Grandma and yer guns and moving to Canada ( at least Canada “admits” it’s in recession with back to back quarters of negative GDP growth now in the can ) – Juuuuust hoping to alert you to the stark realities of the current situation.
If you haven’t sold yet – you are not going to be the happiest camper moving forward.
Forex markets don’t give a rat’s ass about you, so if you can keep your eyes on the fundamentals and “not” on the tube. You’ll do fine.
Tomorrow morning the entire move with “have already happened” pre – market ( ya…actually it’s called Japan ) and the most likely scenario will see Western investors pile in short around 10:30 a.m thinking they’ve “scored a tip” here Sunday night.
Wall St. will then strip you clean ( ramping the thing into the late afternoon ) then sell hard into the close.
That…….or perhaps a fake alien invasion and an address from your leader.
I stand impartial ( this is my forex blog……..so you can imagine my thoughts on other “more interesting things” ) so take it with a grain of salt.
I trade to make money….I blog to help you.
Try your best not to get the lines crossed here k?
Don’t ask me why……..you already know why.
Fact of the matter is the big boys already sold all their long USD positions to “you” over the past 6 months. ( The move higher on bogus economic news – taking 6 full months to unwind and pass the bag to retail bagholders buying the hype. )
Equities? Common…….topped “months ago” and have been in “distribution phase” ever since.
Look out as this continued sideways action ( looking at the entire year of 2015 ) may have just shown its hand.
I’m long JPY against everything…..I’m short USD vs the Eur currencies…and I’m looking for waterfalls.
Forex_Kong_Face_Book
It’s one of the most counter intuitive trade concepts out there….and not surprisingly – also one of the most lucrative as the vast majority of retail traders continue to find themselves on the wrong side.
The Japanese Yen has been one of the largest contributing factors to the seemingly never-ending rally there in the U.S , as the Bank of Japan ( some time ago ) obeyed their master ( The U.S Fed ) as always…..printing Yen like mad and taking some heat off USD.
Yen then borrowed at 0% – and used to pump U.S Equities. It’s called the Carry Trade….and the big banks love it.
Until it’s time to unwind of course. Fast and furious, leaving the majority of retail traders in the dust…The Yen literally “takes off into the upper atmosphere” when risk ( U.S Equities ) is sold….and all those little Yen head back to Japan.
You are seeing a small example of that this morning with AUD/JPY trade now well in profit ( hey! Wasn’t that suggested a few day ago?? ) as well as nearly every single JPY pair making reasonable moves.
If you take anything away from this blog short of the odd chuckle – put this in your tool box. It will make you some serious coin.
Members! – The site is still down as these morons just can’t get it figured out ( hosting is so difficult right? GRRRRR!! ) Pick up here in the short term and we’ll be back up and running pronto.
I sound like a broken record.
Simply put ( for the 10,000th time ) The Japanese Yen takes huge inflows when risk comes off…..and commodity related currencies such as The Australian Dollar sell off hard.
You’ve got the best of both ( no shit sunshine ) when trading the pair – AUD/JPY….taking advantage of large moves ( in opposite directions ) of BOTH currencies.
This is the kind of thing currency traders really look for.
Take a quick peak at AUD/JPY on a daily chart….and once again plot the beloved 200SMA.
See anything you like?
No brainer here “price wise” as this retracement in an obvious downtrend screams “sell”.
You have to keep in mind though……price and time are two different things. This is a great level to start thinking short the pair…….regardless of how long it bounces around at the 200.
Me? I’m getting under it with sell orders a full 100 pips below. If she screams higher ( doubtful ) then I’m not in the trade ( get it? ) – job well done.
When she falls…..I get picked up on momentum.
Eezy peezy.
You have to learn to let the market come to you…….stop chasing shit all over your screen.