The short USD Trade has been all too kind.
Have a peak at some “marketing timing” as a new daily cycle now begins for USD. I’m obviously 100% completely cash.
For the brave at heart – full reversal trade here….feel free to take a couple of days on the long side if you like.
Not for me….as I trade with the trend, but I’m sure you’ll squeeze a couple of days ( maybe as many as 6 ) long here if ya like. Have at it.
I’m hitting the oysters hard. No plans to trade for at least the coming week.
Absolutely incredible.
Silly people clinging to their television sets, clinging to their currency – still clinging to the ridiculous notion that “everything is going well”.
Straight up…..anyone suggesting that you “buy” is likely a banker, a broker or some dumb ass blogger with a single strategy ( or total lack of strategy ) appealing to you on the only level they can.
The notion that “bears are negative” and bulls are “positive” is completely and totally ridiculous as this is a “market” that trades in both directions. If you can’t develop strategies for the “red candles” how on earth do you possibly think you can be successful? Just buy and hold? Just “buy” cuz you are “optimistic about the future”? Dumb.
I’m as optimistic as it gets. Building my spaceship, saving my pennies for the liver transplant I expect to get somewhere down the road..plotting my investments in Graphene and spending my spare time plugging away at the latest developments in physics. The future looks amazing! But what the f#@k does that have to do with making money in the markets?
Blind optimism has no place here. It’s actually pretty irresponsible.
Since the vast majority of you don’t even trade Forex, it’s very likely that you lack proper context. If you dig back into the blog, you’ll find countless references to the fact that “currency markets lead all other markets”. Pretty straight forward considering that you need “money” to buy stocks so…….there it is. If you’re watching the money – you will always be one step ahead.
So what’s the deal with my USD Short Trade?
The deal is – it’s been 8 straight days since entry, and the trade has been amazing.
The US Dollar has absolutely cratered against it’s “printing partner/funding currency” the Japanese Yen. Didn’t hear too much about it in the news? Not surprising.
USD/JPY has fallen 1700 pips ( yes that’s right – 1700 pips! ) since markets topped out some months ago., and is quickly approaching “intervention territory” as far as The Bank of Japan goes. The huge move in Japanese Yen – a Tsunami for the Japanese economy.
USD-JPY_April
I’m banking profits, as well letting a couple of these trades run with a tight stop as the money has already been made on this recent “leg lower in USD” but don’t be mistaken.
There will be another one coming. Bank on it.
With over a month of inactivity short of holding the same positions, the same strategy as outlined here countless numbers of times – our old friend The U.S Dollar has done us proud.
The “dumb buck” has lost some 1000 pips v.s the Japanese Yen since markets topped some months ago, and has made an equally bad showing against the majority of its rivals.
This has only just begun.
You may recall chatter some months ago about China and a number of other countries moving away from use of The Dollar in international trade, and recent news suggests that now Iran ( with sanctions being lifted ) is looking to sell its oil in Euro only.
Unfortunately you just can’t have it both ways.
Things will only spiral further down the drain when U.S interest rates go negative ( where essentially they are already if you consider inflation ) and The Fed looks to launch QE5.
All those worthless dollars already printed…..and a shit pile more coming soon – to an unemployment office near you. This is no time to be disappointed or upset! Rejoice in your new-found knowledge that the entire “economic recovery” has been a complete and total sham, and be glad you made the realization early enough to survive.
Have you survived? I hope so.
And it’s really not too late…unless of course you are still of the mindset that “The Central Banks” have got your back well then…….one would think you’d of learned your lesson over the past month er so.
Earth is selling off hard. There isn’t a damn thing “they” or “anyone” can do about it.
Global stock markets are literally “tanking daily” and in my view things are just getting started.
From a technical perspective we’ve only just “shaved the top” off this mountain off bullshit, now with The SP 500 still hanging around the neckline area of support – but that won’t last much longer.
New lows…..then even “lower lows” to follow as The U.S Dollar plummets, Japanese Yen come flooding back to the country where they were printed, Euro and GBP remain elevated and the commodity related “currencies” trade flat.
A low in oil at some point ( correlating with the dump in USD ) won’t mean the markets will recover…not in the slightest as oil will then just bounce along said bottom for eternity. No immediate opportunities there.
People are flat busted, food prices are “out of this world” and global economic data is quickly turning from bad to horrific. This is not a blip. This is not a “correction”. This is not a drill.
This is 2016 baby….and it will be one for the books.
Dollar_No_More
The weekly charts in SP 500 and Dow now clearly broken.
We move lower here….like weeks lower…so don’t get caught buying dips!
We sell rips in this environment so what you are looking for are strong “daily closes” in order to find higher levels to continue to “add short on”.
Find “max green” intra day / week to continue loading short.
Long JPY the biggest winner ( as you guys already know this! ) with Commods like AUD getting punched in the knee.
Looming buys in both EUR and GBP vs USD but likely not for a few days…..legging in as soon as this evening / late afternoon tomorrow.
A fantastic start to the new year with equity markets in particular – showing their hands early.
Today looks fantastic as currency markets are essentially `giving us the day to catch up`….with little movement in USD itself – but OBVIOUS movement in JPY as risk sells off hard.
You guys know this…..this should look very straight forward at this point as the clear trade is still Long JPY vs Commods….as well short USD coming up here again soon.
These pairs are a given as risk falls off the cliff, while we get another full day ( or two more perhaps ) before USD rolls over and `those` pairs get added to the pile.
I wish it was more exciting at times too folks…however after a time…this just gets redundant.
We are going lower…..days lower…….weeks lower.
Forex_Kong_Face_Book
The Japanese Nikkei Index is down nearly 3% ( -525 ) and it’s not even lunch time in Japan.
Care for a dynamite roll? Lol. Markets are imploding.
As suggested here countless times in the past…..just tune into to The Nikkei on Sunday nights for your early morning trade strategies there in the U.S. as it would be a very rare occasion that such destruction over seas doesn’t hit the shores of America come sunrise. When will you expand your circles of influence wide enough to truly get a grasp on this thing we call a “global economy”?
CNBC and the Wall St. Journal just won’t cut it girls.
I am making “sick money” long JPY since last week ( you could be too ……..but wait….the trade involved discussion/concepts of something “asian” so……its more than likely you “let nothing but patriotism stop you” ) – bleeeep! Red button. Some silly buzzer going off on some hilarious Japanese game show set – YOU LOSE Honky.
It’s a “global economy”! You seriously don’t believe it? How long can the television continue to guide you?
Now I’m not asking you to consider ducking out on your “trailer pad rental”, packing up Grandma and yer guns and moving to Canada ( at least Canada “admits” it’s in recession with back to back quarters of negative GDP growth now in the can ) – Juuuuust hoping to alert you to the stark realities of the current situation.
If you haven’t sold yet – you are not going to be the happiest camper moving forward.
Forex markets don’t give a rat’s ass about you, so if you can keep your eyes on the fundamentals and “not” on the tube. You’ll do fine.
Tomorrow morning the entire move with “have already happened” pre – market ( ya…actually it’s called Japan ) and the most likely scenario will see Western investors pile in short around 10:30 a.m thinking they’ve “scored a tip” here Sunday night.
Wall St. will then strip you clean ( ramping the thing into the late afternoon ) then sell hard into the close.
That…….or perhaps a fake alien invasion and an address from your leader.
I stand impartial ( this is my forex blog……..so you can imagine my thoughts on other “more interesting things” ) so take it with a grain of salt.
I trade to make money….I blog to help you.
Try your best not to get the lines crossed here k?
It’s one of the most counter intuitive trade concepts out there….and not surprisingly – also one of the most lucrative as the vast majority of retail traders continue to find themselves on the wrong side.
The Japanese Yen has been one of the largest contributing factors to the seemingly never-ending rally there in the U.S , as the Bank of Japan ( some time ago ) obeyed their master ( The U.S Fed ) as always…..printing Yen like mad and taking some heat off USD.
Yen then borrowed at 0% – and used to pump U.S Equities. It’s called the Carry Trade….and the big banks love it.
Until it’s time to unwind of course. Fast and furious, leaving the majority of retail traders in the dust…The Yen literally “takes off into the upper atmosphere” when risk ( U.S Equities ) is sold….and all those little Yen head back to Japan.
You are seeing a small example of that this morning with AUD/JPY trade now well in profit ( hey! Wasn’t that suggested a few day ago?? ) as well as nearly every single JPY pair making reasonable moves.
If you take anything away from this blog short of the odd chuckle – put this in your tool box. It will make you some serious coin.
Members! – The site is still down as these morons just can’t get it figured out ( hosting is so difficult right? GRRRRR!! ) Pick up here in the short term and we’ll be back up and running pronto.
I sound like a broken record.
Simply put ( for the 10,000th time ) The Japanese Yen takes huge inflows when risk comes off…..and commodity related currencies such as The Australian Dollar sell off hard.
You’ve got the best of both ( no shit sunshine ) when trading the pair – AUD/JPY….taking advantage of large moves ( in opposite directions ) of BOTH currencies.
This is the kind of thing currency traders really look for.
Take a quick peak at AUD/JPY on a daily chart….and once again plot the beloved 200SMA.
See anything you like?
No brainer here “price wise” as this retracement in an obvious downtrend screams “sell”.
You have to keep in mind though……price and time are two different things. This is a great level to start thinking short the pair…….regardless of how long it bounces around at the 200.
Me? I’m getting under it with sell orders a full 100 pips below. If she screams higher ( doubtful ) then I’m not in the trade ( get it? ) – job well done.
When she falls…..I get picked up on momentum.
Eezy peezy.
You have to learn to let the market come to you…….stop chasing shit all over your screen.
You know….it’s a tragedy really.
A sad, sad story of deceit.
Unfolding slowly at first, then ramping to climax when “least most expected”.
Think of all the talk in the news…..rates hike expectations, and the “anticipation” surrounding this glorious event when essentially the U.S Fed will “put a stamp” on the economic recovery – and do the right thing.
A rise in interest rates ( as detrimental as it would be to the already “anemic economy” ) would tell the rest of the world that “everything has gone according to plan”, “we’ve done what was needed, and now it’s time for a return to normalcy”. Not gonna happen.
Consider that today’s horrible U.S jobs report ( far lower job growth than forecast ) is just another reason for The Fed to hold off on normalizing rates. Imagine that now……BAD JOBS NUMBERS allow the Fed to just keep on with the only thing it knows how to do . The only thing it “can do” in order to stop the U.S from falling off the cliff into complete and total economic collapse. You got it. You’re getting better at this.
Just print more money.
I predict “at best” a small quarter point raise some time next year – (if that…and only to appease the masses for a short period of time) before the Fed cranks up the printing presses for QE4, QE5 – crushing the U.S Dollar and finally pushing The U.S to the brink.
Perhaps on the heels of some juicy news that Russia has now done this….or China has now done that when really….as I think its become quite clear over the past few years…it’s THE FED that has done this.
As American citizens sit and watch this sad drama unfold…………………..from the cheap seats of course.
I remain short risk as this has been the best trade of the entire year ( going back several weeks now ) and I will “double down” later this year on complete and total U.S Dollar destruction.
Thank you U.S Fed.
You make this sooooo easy.
Forex_Kong_FaceBook
The wait has been brutal, and the USD pairs “wide-ranging behavior” has made it very difficult to pick a specific level, and feel “good” about nailing an entry.
Patience has been pushed to the limit, as the daily volatility continues to wipe out the small guys.
I dare say it again…..but we should see the waterfall commence here very , very soon.
With continued concentration on the JPY pairs vs AUD, NZD and CAD – what can be said?
These trades continue to produce, now I dunno….several hundreds of pips ( 1000’s cumulatively ) in the green.
If you’ve still got a couple pennies in your jeans…..remain short…add short risk as we are clearly moving lower ( and in my view even lower ).
Interestingly……you can’t have a low in Oil…….without a high / turn in USD ( as oil is priced in USD )
I remain short risk…..long JPY and short USD….and as suggested some weeks ago – Feel free to take a look at the profits come mid/late October.