Careful People – You Are Retail

If you aren’t worries about the markets – you should be. If you think you’ve got it all figured out – you’re dead wrong. If you think you are a professional trader – you won’t be for long.

I took the time over the past few days to peruse the financial blogosphere and get caught up on my reading – after a much-needed (and extremely enjoyable) “holiday from my holiday”. Bonefish put up a pretty good fight, and watching my father reel in the only “Permit” caught in recent weeks was an absolute thrill. For a moment I too imagined – I’ve got this covered.


Passivity and complacency play no part in successful trading. It only makes sense to me, as one feels even the slightest sense of either – markets are gearing up to smash you in the face.

You have to keep in mind (as hard as it is for you to accept) that right around the time you imagine the coast is clear, that all is well, that you can surely do no wrong ( and likely that you’ve just received a call from your broker encouraging you to buy) that you are retail.

You are the life-giving blood of wall street and the “last of the last” to jump on board. The train left the station weeks if not months ago, and right around the time you’ve decided to jump onboard – you guessed it, it’s coming off the tracks.

Until you’ve mastered the psychology, until you’ve flipped this thing completely upside down – you are …and will always be…..retail.

Careful people……..careful.

They don’t call it risk for nothing right? – personally I can’t get excited re entering long here, and see more than a couple of reasons to start looking short. Take it for what it’s worth – I’m 100% cash – and would not be buying risk tomorrow….not even close.

9 Responses

  1. Nfxtrader January 21, 2013 / 5:01 pm

    What are you actually seeing thats keeping you out?

    • Forex Kong January 21, 2013 / 5:40 pm

      My short term indicators are at best “flat” – and many of the commods (which I often relate directly to “risk”) related pairs are showing considerable short term weakness. At times this may be seen / interpreted as a “pullback” – and this may very well be the case here as well but…..

      BOJ is also making statements and decisions on further easing measures through today / tonight.

      All said – I don’t have enough to get long – and it’s too early for me to get short. Equities are pushing near term highs – and I just can’t see a pile of upside here until I get a couple more days info.

    • Forex Kong January 21, 2013 / 5:43 pm

      Im not particularily thrilled with it either but – in sticking with what I know (and the technical system I’ve devised) I usually push a button and make money.In looking back over the week – I am again pleased to have been out, as I’ve not missed a pip…in a pretty tired and more or less directionless market.

      That’s no place for me.

      • Nfxtrader January 21, 2013 / 5:51 pm


  2. schmederling January 21, 2013 / 10:22 pm

    wow… look atr the moves in USD/JPY – DXY is crazy as well….. nothing to do here except wait…

    • Forex Kong January 21, 2013 / 10:29 pm

      Big divergence in my short term tech – and USD/JPYt is a looooong ways away from the mean. Unfortunately – I sit tight and let the programming do what it does…..

      It’s been great timing as far as my vacation goes but….I am itchy to get back at it.

      • schmederling January 22, 2013 / 3:03 am

        All currency not liking JPY and the bank movements…. swan dive every where… LOL love it…. where are the shorts?

  3. schmederling January 22, 2013 / 6:37 am

    That was fun – I did not positions these today thursday/Friday last week…. posted on the blog… I was DEEP in the red….

    USDJPY Short 1.31%
    USDCAD Short -0.64% EURJPY Short -600,000 0.90%
    EURAUD Short -1,800,001 0.56%

    • Forex Kong January 22, 2013 / 7:17 am

      Unfortunately – I still don’t have enough to buy long again, nor is my short term system suggesting I get short (although pretty damn close).

      That’s the thing with currency trading (the analegy of turning a big cruiseship around as opposed to a speedboat) – I’ve learned to recognize and identify the turns fine – all knowing that at times they take weeks. Ill have some resolution on a couple pairs (USD/JPY for one) in about 19 hours 43 mins.

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