Flight To Safety – Not USD

As suggested some months ago – I had envisioned a time where “all things U.S” would likely be sold. We saw the trend appear first in bonds, then considerable US Dollar weakness and finally the inevitable spill over into U.S equities.

Trouble is that now….we need to consider that indeed rates in the U.S will be on the rise (not “tomorrow but in general), and in turn hurt corporate borrowing ( and the ability for companies to increase profits ) which in turn will create even “further” weakness in the U.S economy in general….as earnings will likely suffer as a result.

The bond market is much, much larger than Ben Bernanke – and all the printing in the world can’t change that. When fear sets in and sellers “sell” – the 20% that Ben doesn’t control can bury him in a second.

I don’t see the “flight to safety” being U.S Dollars this time around folks.

I’m leaning LONG JPY here as of this morning, as well looking to limp into SHORT USD trades over the next couple of days.

 

18 Responses

  1. pg June 24, 2013 / 11:02 am

    Hey Kong how do you see the Canadian dollar being affected vs the usd over the next bit

    • Forex Kong June 24, 2013 / 11:06 am

      The damn pair is frustrating as hell to trade…as it tends to just range and range, then BAM! Then range and range….

      Looking at these levels, I’m going fishing short the pair pronto…and will just add on confirmation that USD does indeed roll over here, and make considerable moves lower.

  2. Superpositron (@superpositron) June 24, 2013 / 12:04 pm

    This is as contrarian as it gets (at least for me). Last time i felt differently then you my account did a Thelma and Louise. I’m listening Kong. I’m listening.

    • Forex Kong June 24, 2013 / 12:12 pm

      Ok……I’m leaning long JPY here man – as the larger “currency” to take safe haven flows, and am debating that with nowhere else for “older gents” – Gold and the Pm’s might take a share as well.

      As well juuuuust waiting a day er two longer to see what correlation asserts itself with USD and U.S equities.

      I still expect USD to move considerably lower, and lower….and had more or less assumed that equities would follow. Then a big couple up days for USD ( bounce only ) but equities continued lower “reversing that correlation”. SO…….I’ll get my answer “equity wise” here in 48 hours as I firmly believe that USD is heading past prior lows.

        • Forex Kong June 24, 2013 / 2:35 pm

          Smart man……smart man.

          I can tell you – it’s pushing me around as well. Wow….nuts out there.

          Im envisioning a trade where USD falls…..SP 500 rises…..JPY ALSO RISES……and get this……AUD rise as well!

          I can honestly say – as wacky as I’ve ever seen it….and it makes sense in a “sick kind of way” as this turn……is likely the most significant for several months ( if not even years ) to come.

    • Forex Kong June 24, 2013 / 12:21 pm

      You’re not going to believe this but ( for real )I’ve got a beautiful slab of tuna in the fridge, and am doin sashimi at home for lunch!

      And yes “chart wise” I’m seeing the ol Yen looking “tastier by the minute” – volatile as hell….but looking to push higher as USD rolls on over.

      Equities are up in the air til I see USD make a solid direction move.

  3. schmederling June 24, 2013 / 10:00 pm

    hmmm interesting – so you think equities will rally here…. hmmm

    • Forex Kong June 24, 2013 / 10:16 pm

      I’m going with the term “bounce” as opposed to rally…..and I’m still eyeing it.

      It’s the correlation with USD and U.S equities I’m still waiting on. This last rise in USD had stocks dump…so it’s either “both down together” or “let’s mix it up for week” – and flip that on it’s head.

      We’ll see in a matter of hours I imagine.

      • schmederling June 25, 2013 / 12:41 am

        Thanks Kong -I hear you…. on the side-line relative to currencies….. my monthly squeeze is still set -up as a NEG fire for the monthly candle….. I would need to see a bounce or more above .9600 to have this neg fire reverse….. otherwise it’s not looking good for the Aussie….. I did think a bottom was in but we all know now that’s a big NO…. LOL sitting & waiting…. & waiting…

  4. schmederling June 25, 2013 / 3:53 am

    I have a neg fire in the AUD/USD pair – limping in enter on the 5ive….:) for now will monitor close….

  5. schmederling June 25, 2013 / 3:56 am

    Correction…. LOL too many things on the go…… make that USD/CAD pair short… AUD/USD 1hr still setting up for a fire….. looking like it will be positive…… enter placed .9302 ๐Ÿ™‚ sorry for the confusion…

  6. fuzzybid June 25, 2013 / 6:24 am

    Kong what you think about audjpy i had set some limit orders small 1s and have some little lower if whe drop through lows again.
    On weekly looks decent strong level?

    Fuzz

    • Forex Kong June 25, 2013 / 8:54 am

      I’m not touching anything “AUD” until I get some kind of clarification on it’s direction.

      It’s obvious that “something is up” with it’s sideways action at a pretty solid area of support but….that could go either way.

      The fundamentals suck – so there is no reason for it in that respect – I’m just ignoring it until I see it make up it’s mind.

  7. fuzzybid June 25, 2013 / 9:37 am

    Ok thanks kong apreciate your comment will not touch will do the same here ๐Ÿ™‚

    • Forex Kong June 25, 2013 / 3:58 pm

      I just took the smallest position possible long AUD/USD with a 150 pip stop Fuzz. For fun!

      I thought I should let you know.

  8. fuzzybid June 25, 2013 / 5:25 pm

    Thanks kong ๐Ÿ™‚

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