USD Face Ripper – Caution Ahead

I’m not sure how “or why” I came up with it. Perhaps something in a dream or maybe something I read – I can’t remember.

Face Ripper ( as per Kong ) : A ridiculous move in the price of a given asset, when the complete and total “opposite” move is expected.

I know it sounds gross. And….essentially “it is” gross but…….. at least it gets the point across.

One day you’re making a trade, and feeling good, confident , “safe”. Next day – Boom….No face.

Wether or not it happens in a day or a week…or a month for that matter – this thing is setting up for an epic move. The overall complacency in markets is downright irresponsible, and reflects an investment environment that is so far “up in the in clouds” that a “trip back to Earth” is most certainly in the cards.


As most traders don’t truly understand the larger “macro” reasons as to why the U.S Dollar “rises” when things look to be at their worst….this is most certainly the case. Every penny that has been invested in assets / converted to other currencies in emerging markets ( as to make larger returns / gains ) comes flooding back into USD on the “slightest indication” that the party is over.


Enough said. This “gov shut down circus” is only the first act….as we’ve got several more to go.


11 Responses

  1. kevin1959 September 30, 2013 / 2:43 pm

    Are you thinking the dollar goes up and pummels everything in its path?

    • Forex Kong September 30, 2013 / 2:46 pm


      • kevin1959 September 30, 2013 / 2:48 pm

        That would throw some folks under the bus. Interesting times we are living in

    • Forex Kong September 30, 2013 / 2:50 pm

      We’ve got to be careful here as……people take “every single word” as a trade signal.

      This is “NOT” a trade signal.

      I’ve been long USD for days now, and done fine! – Cuz I don’t trade the useless EUR/USD / Newbie rinse pair! Even if I did….it’s barely even budged.

      Noise is noise…and these days there is a tonne of it. I see what I see – and just want to pass it along.

  2. schmederling September 30, 2013 / 10:28 pm

    Hey Dr. Kong, Hmmm this post has got me thinking…. I have to hand it to you for that – which is a good thing I might add. Giving things yet another look see as the dollar stands alone ( If one can say that -DXY ) I still have set-ups running on the 4hr, 8hr & weekly…. I have been tracking the weekly for a while now with it sitting on the cliff of a NEG fire rolling this baby over while knocking it down a couple pegs in the process…. if a bounce or “RIP YOUR FACE OFF” move lies in the card one would think the 200 MVG would be the place to take it’s stand. Now the question still has to be as you mentioned today, tomorrow, next week or month…. but does it take the final leap off the cliff first or catch a good % flat-footed here…

    Will be interesting to watch how this plays out even more so how everything else reacts? One would suspect that with ” Risk Off ” on the table they stocks commodities & Com-currencies tumble…. I would have to think Stock & oil would follow there normal trend with a flood into safety – however here we may just see Gold fall back into a ” safe haven ” role…. money will need to go somewhere -solely into the US dollar? perhaps…. perhaps not….. LOL as fear & greed set in depending on which side of the fence one is & a relationship to “sounds money ” complete confidence in the dollar might not be what it used to be…. we will know sooner or later!

    Of course I could be completely out in left field here in my process of thinking

    Cheers Schmed

    • schmederling September 30, 2013 / 10:42 pm

      We still have that GAP left to close in the DXY which was left on Sept 16th or there around…. am actually surprised it has not closed yet – perhaps GAP work differently in the FX world…. one things is for sure the Sun will rise & Set another day!!

    • Forex Kong October 1, 2013 / 9:28 am

      Yo Schmed!

      I’ve been throwing it around for some time – where “in this big mess” does Gold /PM’s fit into place? It’s a tough one.

      For a time I considered ( as you’ve suggested )that Gold would take it’s place as a “safe haven” when things turned South, then a flip ….a flop , another flip, flop etc……

      The thing is – we “still” haven’t seen the “safe haven” move yet, as market participants are “still” sitting around like lazy ol dogs basking in the eternal sunshine of QE. Fundamentaly – there has really been “no good reason” to hold Gold, as the spout of free money remains wide open.

      Now…..we look ahead and consider that “hell the U.S Dollar is hooped!” – why would it take the lions share when risk comes off? Gold makes more sense.

      It remains to be seen – but I do think the PM’s will have their day (relatively soon ) as the diversification “out” of USD has been in play in some pretty big circles over the past year.

      Knee jerk the buck – then longer term Gold. That’s what I’m lookin at.

  3. schmederling October 1, 2013 / 2:40 am

    I have the DXY now firing off NEG on the 4hr TF – Next will be the 8hr…. do we get a weekly fire?

    • Forex Kong October 1, 2013 / 2:49 am

      check out a 200 SMA on the weekly DXY

  4. Peter October 1, 2013 / 5:14 am

    Couldn’t agree more Kong!

    • Forex Kong October 1, 2013 / 9:33 am

      Right on Peter.

      Keep on rollin here!

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