Let me ask you a question.
If you’d never watched a game of baseball a day in your life, then fell in love with a “baseball fanatic”…How long do you think it would have taken you to get the gist of things?
You’d stroll by the T.V a couple of times…then maybe peruse the odd magazine lying around the house, pick up on a bit of the “lingo” and who knows? – maybe even ask a couple of questions about it yourself! Next thing you know…you’ve got the basics. You see the batter, you understand the guy needs to hit the ball then run around the “diamond”, touching all the bases in order to score. You understand that it takes 9 “innings”, and the team who’s had the most guys run around the diamond in that time – wins.
Basic. Very basic.
Now…..how bout the “double play”, or maybe the “bunt”? Have you considered the pitcher’s ability to throw that tiny ball with a “curve”? Have you covered “stealing a base”?
Nope. Not so basic.
The question is…..Would you really “ever” take a deep enough interest in baseball to understand it through and through? Literally…to know ever single facet of the game, no questions asked , bang ! boom! wow! – You’ve got this down!!
Absolutely not. So now….with your “vast knowledge” of the game, your “deep understanding” of every nuance – imagine……………………….. you’re asked to step out on the field and “actually play”!
Have you ever even “held” a bat? Can you even run?
I think it’s fantastic that I’ve “managed to wrangle” a number of intelligent readers here at Forex Kong, and that these guys also offer their opinions / beliefs / suggestions and projections.
You can surf around the net for a “looooooong time” searching for some of the “nuggets” that turn up in the comments section here at the site, with a large portion of these insights coming from a “small handful” of some mighty intelligent people.
Yesterday’s post on “the proposed downward slide of the U.S Dollar” brought about a couple of fantastic “alternate views” which I appreciate in that – we enter the world of “speculation” when we start looking out over longer periods of time – where in theory “it’s impossible” for anyone to “actually know” how things will play out.
Throwing the ball around with others allows for a better perspective, an acceptance of alternate views and an “opening of the mind” should you be so closed as to only consider your own ideas, as correct.
The future path for the U.S Dollar (having such impact on all else) seems like as good a place to start as any so…..I welcome “any and all” to weigh in on this post ( as I will leave the comments section open for eternity ) as to provide a lasting resource for readers in the future.
USD bullish or bearish? You tell me?
This won’t come as a surprise…coming from me but – USD is headed much lower.
I think it’s about time – we’ve had enough of this “mucking around” at these levels, having more or less “danced around” the past few months. It’s time for the next leg down.
I don’t have time here this morning but if you want to pull up a general chart of the $dxy or in some platform (like stockcharts) $USD, I’d get your sights set on a serious of long red candles taking us down into that area around 75 – 72 in coming months.
If this “doesn’t” correspond to an “inverse move” in the price of gold and silver ( looking at is as such a dramatic decrease in USD value ) I will be forced to take on “the Habanero challenge” as I have offered several times in the past.
Up 3% overnight alone with the majority “still coming” from trades entered in GBP vs Commods in the weeks past. I suspect the Nikkei will “attempt” a solid double / retest top at 16,000 ( the high from May ) as JPY futures inversely “double bottom” shortly.
China just dropped an absolute bombshell, entirely ignored by the mainstream media in the United States. The central bank of China has decided that it is “no longer in China’s favor to accumulate foreign-exchange reserves”. So in other words – China sees little need to continue “hoarding” USD as they have in the past ( in order to keep their own currency suppressed ) and is likely to stop purchasing U.S Debt as well.
As well China also announced last week ( again – completely ignored in mainstream media ) that they will soon look to price crude oil in Yuan on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, bypassing the need for exchange in USD.
The implications and ramifications are massive.
- China is now the number one importer of oil in the world, and will soon openly challenge use of the petrodollar.
- Dropping the purchases of U.S denominated debt leaves only the The Fed (as no one else in there right mind is buying U.S Treasuries ) so we can likely expect further downside in bond prices…and of course the dreaded inverse – rise in interest rates.
- When China starts dumping dollars and U.S denominated debt, it’s pretty safe to say the rest of the world will too.
- Allowing the Yuan to in turn “appreciate in value” will make all those wonderfully cheap products sold in The United States much more expensive.
In all….this is likely the largest , most significant story / issue now facing the U.S as China’s “backstop” to the U.S Dollar and never-ending purchases of U.S Debt “until now” have been primary drivers in supporting “whatever it is you call this” economic recovery.
Pulling the rug on U.S Dollar and debt purchases is without a doubt the move that “takes the queen”.
I stumbled upon this video over the weekend, and thought you might enjoy.
Karen Hudes “tells it like it is”, offering a glimmer of hope as well. Perhaps she’s a wack job too so…I’ll let you be the judge.
The usual Sunday ritual for Kong ( chipotle basil bolognese ) as we get ready for another exciting week trading. Volatility has certainly kicked up in currency markets as USD makes a bold turn “lower” as suggested. My eyes are still on JPY for the “big one” when it comes, but continued trading in GBP as well short those commods.
I expect we should see some real action here this week.
Another fantastic week of trading comes to a close.
An epic close at that, as U.S equities continue their relentless climb higher – higher indeed, to the absolute highest level ever. EVER!
THE U.S EQUITIES MARKET HAS REACHED IT’S HIGHEST LEVEL IN THE ENTIRE EXISTENCE OF MAN.
I applaud the U.S Federal Reserve for their achievement. Bravo! You’ve done it.
You’ve successfully devised a system, “where in” you and your cronies eat lobster and fillet mignon for breakfast lunch and dinner, every day of your lives – while passing the bill on over to the waiter, bartender and busboy ( frantically scrambling for any “scraps” they can tuck away in their gym bags) leaving pennies for a tip.
Bravo! Bravo! Everything is coming together perfectly – exactly to plan.
This chart on U.S Macro Data…………again.
How come I keep killing it with generally “bearish stock market calls” and “100% bearish currency movements”?
This thing is being sold on a level you’ve no possible comprehension of.
No “possible” comprehension of.
Have a good weekend all. Buy buy buy!
Japan is the world’s third largest economy and a key trading partner to all of the large powers with a current “debt versus the country’s GDP” at 230% – the highest in the developed world. And if you add in corporate and private debt, total Japanese debt equates to more like 500% of GDP.
Think about that for a moment.
Any given year the country of Japan “owes” (lets average it out) 3X the amount of money that it currently “makes”. That’s what I call a serious credit card limit – totally maxed.
To illustrate just how fragile this situation is ( and possibly foreshadow a likely “similar” situation currently developing in the U.S ) if the base interest rates in Japan where to rise to a piddly 2% ( as the current rate is at 0.1% ) it would have “interest expense on government debt” equate to 80% of government revenue. That’s 80% of the countries GDP ( essentially ) going to pay the INTEREST on outstanding debt alone!
This “tiny jump” in interest rates would cause complete chaos in the bond market, be absolutely impossible to service, and likely lead to full-blown economic crisis.
So what’s the plan in Japan? Seeing that even the current stimulus plan ( 3X as large as th U.S current QE) is “barely” allowing them to hang on? More printing? More government bond purchases?
And of course when all else fails….what’s another great way a government can increase its revenue?
Raise taxes, and essentially make the people “work off the debt”.
Sound at all familiar?
Slaves to the bank. That’s what I see.
The “short Aussie” “post and subsequent trades of the last 24 hours have been spectacular as “indeed” the Australian Dollar took some serious damage overnight. Do I think it’s done? No way….The Aussie’s got a ways further to fall.
I’m not going to get into all the details here at the moment as……I imagine the majority of you could really care less.
“Just give us the trades Kong – what’s the trade Kong??”
The Australian Dollar is in real trouble here.
Considering that the RBA is opening “talking down” AUD as the currency is considered “overvalued” (and in turn hurting Australia’s economy), coupled with the fact that “it’s been a nice run” on the back of massive expansion and development of China – it could very well be time for some serious downward action.
AUD has already come down considerably but…..I might see a “waterfall” coming – in the not so distant future.
Trades short in AUD/JPY would likely make the biggest move, as well for stock traders short “FXA”.
Smart money index (SMI) of smart money flow index is a technical analysis indicator demonstrating investors’ sentiment. The index was invented and popularized by money manager Don Hays. The indicator is based on intra-day price patterns.
The main idea is that the majority of traders (emotional, news-driven) overreact at the beginning of the trading day because of the overnight news and economic data. There is also a lot of buying on market orders and short covering at the opening.
Smart, experienced investors start trading closer to the end of the day having the opportunity to evaluate market performance. Therefore, the basic strategy is to bet against the morning price trend and bet with the evening price trend.
Sounds simple enough. The “dumb money” active in the morning, while the “smart money” work’s its magic near the close.
Check it out – The SP 500 is the top chart, and the “smart money” on the bottom.
The smart money has been “selling into this rally” since June of 2012!
It’s not rocket science, as emotions tend to drive new traders / investors right into the hands of the more experienced.
If you’re “up and attem” in the mornings and can’t figure out why your trading isn’t going so well, perhaps it’s time to really question…….
Are you dumb?
I must have dreamt it but…..I could have sworn I’d posted this chart some time ago.
A quick look at $VIX.
THE VIX REACHED 90.00 AT THE HEIGHT OF THE CRASH OF 2008 IF THAT MEANS ANYTHING TO YOU.
Volatility “rises” when fear sets in. This cannot be questioned.
The $Vix has “bobbed along the bottom” for the entire Fed driven rally, and cannot / will not break below around 12.50 no matter how high the market goes. This is complacency to a degree BEYOND my scope of understanding….as it’s painfully clear that most people have indeed been “lulled back into thinking” every is going to be alright.
THE VIX HIT 90.00 back in 2008!