Hold Or Fold – U.S Job Data To Disapoint

I was going to wait until “after” the jobs report here this morning, to see if we get a better idea of direction moving forward. Why bother.

The number will be a disappointment as I expected, with the media suggesting that the poor employment numbers are largely due to “poor weather” (I don’t think I’ve ever heard “that one” before).

Markets continue to question “if indeed” Yellen will stick to the plan of tapering, or even as soon as next week – make suggestion otherwise. I’ve been hearing that The Fed feels they need to see “a little more data” before considering flipping the switch and “tapering the tapering”, so mid March still looks like a reasonable time frame to expect “something big”.

We’ve bounced a little bit here this week, with AUD also moving up with “risk appetite” as the ol standard correlation goes, but all in all, it still only looks like a “bit of a counter trend move” in a fairly well-defined down trend.

I’ll be off to Belize here this morning, currently holding several pairs and frankly not that thrilled about it. The entire week trading flat ( and I mean really flat ) generally puts me on edge, as I hate holding anything for too long. I’ll let the jobs data hit, then re-evaluate holding,or possibly dumping a number of positions before I head out on holidays.




15 Responses

  1. Careydina February 7, 2014 / 7:36 am

    Yoz kong,

    Hope the markets doesn’t irritated you too much 😀

    I’m still on my vacations.. put down my mind but yet headaches with my new maid, she was giving me a big heartbeat most of the day lol.. hope will find a good one to replace her soon.

    Have been keeping my eyes on eur/usd as well as gbp/usd last week. Eur doesn’t break my target so i decided to close and take profits. As for gbp was quite cool to me-target hit hehe…

  2. Jworthy February 7, 2014 / 8:30 am

    Seems like another “Bad news is good news” open. Will be interesting to see how weekly candles look after today’s session.

    Enjoy Belize! Do you scuba?

    • Forex Kong February 7, 2014 / 8:54 am

      You bet, the little Island of Abergris Caye is where I’m headed – dive yes.

      A chart of /ES futures doesn’t even put these “last 3 days” together to signify trend change in my eyes so….

      I’m off the thinking a bounce…before more down.

        • Forex Kong February 9, 2014 / 5:40 pm

          I’m still in Belize and only have a connection in the little lobby as I’m “way out there”

          I’ll have to get caught Monday afternoon.

  3. JSkogs February 7, 2014 / 8:49 am

    Strange reaction once again. I guess its the fed has our back mentality. Costanza market. Might start fading some yen longs back in the game here.

    • Forex Kong February 7, 2014 / 8:55 am

      You bet JPY pairs looking ready for the “next trade” yes.

      • JSkogs February 7, 2014 / 9:13 am

        Have fun in Belize! I was hoping to go to Belize when I was in Tulum several years back. Didn’t quite make it off the beach in Tulum though. Kinda got stuck so to speak haha. Damn that’s a killer spot.

  4. Farhan Nasir (@FaniNasir) February 7, 2014 / 10:48 am

    Kong ,, market is back where it was before the data .. i guess what shows that nothing has changed ,, just keep holding on ,,
    AUD/USD making a daily doji ,, so that gives us a hint that buyers getting exhausted and its ready to roll down ,, this is what i think ,, your views about this ??
    and lucky you ,, going on a vocations ,, send us pics will ya 😛

  5. Lidotrading February 7, 2014 / 7:36 pm

    Hi Kong….it’s the Don Julio rookie from the bar the other day….you taught me good tequila so let’s see what else I may be able to learn!

    • Forex Kong February 9, 2014 / 5:32 pm

      Hey man…..I’m still in Belize and will back at it late Monday afternoon.

  6. Jay February 8, 2014 / 11:11 am

    I notice that Mr. Dumb Money Tracker mentioned you again yesterday on his dumb blog. He claims that he can make his subscribers 100%+ this year. What a joke! They would need more than 100% just to get anywhere near back to even! He talks about “lifting his hedges” on metals, but previously he always argued that hedging was a “waste of money” I wonder if he finally followed my friend’s advice about hedging, or if his idea of hedging is to buy a triple inverse ETF after the sector already collapsed? 🙂

  7. Joe February 8, 2014 / 4:01 pm


    Your buddy Savage is calling you out again and continue to pound his ‘I’m right’ calls BS.


    • Forex Kong February 9, 2014 / 5:37 pm

      To all “haters” of DMT I’m actually quite pleased – if in fact he’s made a decent trade, and perhaps come at least one step closer to break even over the past 3 years.

      Perhaps he’s learning which is great.

      One way or another he just keeps sending me traffic week over week, again and again so……..go man go.

  8. Farhan Nasir (@FaniNasir) February 10, 2014 / 11:18 pm

    More good nos out of Aussie ,, going up up up ,,
    any comments kong , ?
    plus Toyota is going to close its factory in Australia ,, so what do you think ,,

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