EUR Soars – Volatility Suggests Something Big

Ya I saw it happen. Right here, in front of my own two eyes – just a few short hours ago.

Shortly after we got the Italian Unemployment Rate ( coming in at a whopping 12.9%! ) we then received the EU Zone “CPI Flash Estimate” ( the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers year over year )…coming it at 0.8% as opposed to the expected 0.7%

Big freakin deal right? Who cares right? Wrong.

The EUR as well GBP and CHF soared on the news, sending the U.S Dollar Index directly into the toilet, smashing through forex charts and “forex hearts” across the board.

Apparently  0.1% of “nothing” is “really something” as the EUR advanced a full 100 pips against the U.S Dollar on the news.

Give me a freakin break. The data has absolutely nothing to do with it all.

These markets are boiling over with volatility these days, and are doing everything they can to transfer as much money from “you to them” as quickly as humanly ( or should I say “robotically”) possible.

It suggests to me that we are inching closer and closer to something “huge” as these “macro turns” are always the toughest to navigate.

I’ve got several irons in the fire now, with some huge data expected out in minutes, including both Canadian and U.S GDP data. These as well should provide for some serious fireworks.

Let’s see what “mother market” has in store for us this morning.

37 Responses

  1. Franky February 28, 2014 / 7:49 am

    Nope, no volatility on GDP data. And USDCAD starting to go wrong direction, I thought USDCAD up on GDP…
    AUDUSD stuck at 0.8560, this pair is dead.

    • Franky February 28, 2014 / 7:50 am

      correction, 0.8960 of course

      • Forex Kong February 28, 2014 / 7:58 am

        This market has absolutely no idea which way to go as the data continues to confuse.

        AUD about as frustrating as I’ve seen in my entire life.

        Looking at some weekly type charts ( USD/JPY for example ) we’ve got a full 5 WEEKS in tight range / going nowhere.

        Fun stuff….unreal really as it’s pretty tough “keeping this stuff interesting” these days.

      • Franky February 28, 2014 / 8:10 am

        At least dollar direction is clear – DOWN. S&P500 getting ready to make new high for no reason.

        • Forex Kong February 28, 2014 / 8:20 am

          I didn’t really expect much out of USD but this in itself is really EUR strength NOT USD weakness as…USD has barely budged vs AUD, CAD etc…

          I’m still gonna kick around a bit and see about trading thru this with so much volatility / short term moves….I’ll get in there for a day er two and roll my sleeves up.

  2. JSkogs February 28, 2014 / 8:14 am

    Hey Kong ya I’m pretty excited about next week. I’ve come not to care about Fridays any more as they just seem to always drift up. The set ups are good for next week. If I didn’t have to work I think I’d just hit Bailey’s n coffee and read the net

    • Forex Kong February 28, 2014 / 8:23 am

      He he he……

      “Not working” is a curse unto itself as I need to “get out of here” just to stay sane.

      I’m curious these days, watching things closely as to gather more intel for the next time etc so….will slug out another day here at the ol computers.

      These kind of things still need a day or two to work themselves out so….again ya it’s the weekend now so….get out and have some fun!

      • Careydina February 28, 2014 / 9:20 am

        I see over the past two years Brent Crude has been trading in a narrower and narrower price.

        Eur/usd may have correction soon (perhaps next week? Currently “short” gbp/usd and usd/nzd.

  3. JSkogs February 28, 2014 / 9:26 am

    The Fed really squeezes stockholders into a box with their rhetoric and really does create bubbles. They squeeze out yield…people move to risk….gets harder to increase gains so they take on leverage…then when data gets soft they say we’ll if it persists we will increase easing….so people get further and further into stocks with leverage which is often backed by real estate then it breaks and we are back to square one. Hilarious. Unloading stocks into today’s strength would be smart in my opinion

    • Forex Kong February 28, 2014 / 9:52 am

      You bet….it’s like cattle to slaughter really…

      Less and less options to turn…single file down the chute….along with the rest, until BOOM!

      That “thing” from “No Country For Old Men” – right between the eyes. Courtesy of your local Fed.

      • JSkogs February 28, 2014 / 9:58 am

        I loved that movie! Ya…not a great way to promote stable banking behaviour and limit risk.

  4. Jack February 28, 2014 / 9:49 am

    Ugh talk about putting ideas in their place. I mistook GBPAUD as inversely correlated to equities, which worked 95% in the past. Is it the Chinese currency devaluation effect or the avoidance of USDs? I don’t get it and it is really frustrating. The whole system seems shot.

    • Jack February 28, 2014 / 10:03 am

      Also – not meaning to come across as a sourpuss but I haven’t been this confused with price action in a long long time.

      • Forex Kong February 28, 2014 / 10:10 am

        I hear you.

        I’m not as much confused as I am flat out worn down ( which again…..is the markets goal ).

        You are trading through a significant time “of change” and a significant turning point. You are “mean’t” to be confused.

        Trade small…..stay sharp….and don’t be afraid to take the odd hit in order to just slug it out.

    • Forex Kong February 28, 2014 / 10:07 am

      Hang in there man….as these things don’t play out in a single day….or even a single quarter!

      I’m currently long GBP/AUD but not as a synthetic “long equities play” no…….it’s tricky but….the relationship of these two currencies ( in my view ) doesn’t fly in that fashion.

      It’s clearly the USD that’s throwing a wrench in most people’s trading as……the juxt of “tapering” and in turn a continuing “lower USD” makes no fundamental sense at all. That’s the short term plan as markets look to clean out your account.

      I may just as well take the entire month of Feb at break even / possible 1-2% loss (pending I hit the buttons) if it’s any consolation.

      In a broad stroke….this is “chop” at a macro level having January suggest lower….then Feb blowing the doors off.

      Me….I’m used to it…and as much as it’s not always easy / fun / enjoyable – having my capital intact for “the next shot at it” takes the front row seat, over “killing it” week over week.

      Sure I drink more beer during these periods as it “is” super frustrating but….you need to just put a bow on it….wrap it up…..and get amped for the next opportunity.

      It “is” shot……but you’ve got to get through it….and be there for a time when things “do” make sense.

      • Jack February 28, 2014 / 10:14 am

        Never truer words spoken. Kong you’re the man, I’ll be patiently waiting in the shadows for the opportune moment.

        • Forex Kong February 28, 2014 / 10:20 am

          Key being…..

          You’ll “be there” – as opposed to letting this thing clean you out, playing into it “as it’s designed”.

          The “psychology of it all” intrigues me most….and for those of us that can conquer that? Good times ahead.

          Best suggestion I can give anyone questioning their “psychological resolve”?

          Trade smaller.

  5. David February 28, 2014 / 10:21 am

    Although the most widely traded currency pair out there, I very rarely play EUR/USD; with that nice break over 1.38 and the bias I have against the EUR in general, I’m going to finally start building a short position in this pair.

    • Forex Kong February 28, 2014 / 10:26 am

      I loath the pair….but do take the occasional pot shot.

      It’s essentially a “pure play” USD strength so…..at these levels ( short of catching a falling knife ) you’d have to expect a bounce.

      Small orders over time do the trick for me as…..I “am short EUR/USD”….order #1 a day ago…. -100 pips….order #2 “around now” – 50 pips…

      50 pips??

      Order #3 a week from now – 25 pips etc….

      Rare I let the market take my coin…as I rarely even use most of it!

  6. David February 28, 2014 / 10:37 am

    With the EUR strength today, at least the long EUR/NZD is looking good from yesterday’s entry.

    • Forex Kong February 28, 2014 / 10:46 am

      Humble but yes……this one is looking great.

      Coupled with some trades “not looking so great” but hey…….so it goes……

      Interestingly ( perhaps for the odd reader with less experience / knowledge than David ) I look to this pair to move higher in a “risk off” environment. Odd? Perhaps.

      Ultimately….when “risk” breaks…NZD and AUD are sold hard. Harder in fact that “let’s say” EUR!

      It takes some “cojones” but…in all…..a sustained move upward in EUR /NZD suggests ( to me at least ) BOTH currencies being sold….BUT…..

      (drum roll please!)

      NZD ( as a commod / risk related currency ) sold harder.

      Flip this shit upside down people…..”then” and only then…it actually starts to makes sense.

  7. Q. February 28, 2014 / 10:50 am

    There’s nothing like a news announcement to F@!K up a perfectly good set up 😉

    • Forex Kong February 28, 2014 / 10:51 am

      Today as a great example you bet.

      News more often than not = NOISE!

      • Forex Kong February 28, 2014 / 11:01 am

        I love it…

        US as well Canadian GDP BOTH miss…..

        And of course…..stocks climb higher.

      • Q February 28, 2014 / 1:22 pm

        Going to run some trades through the Asian session to eliminate said noise. Same tech, different time.

  8. Rob February 28, 2014 / 2:01 pm

    Hey Kong good stuff sir. Always enjoy having a read of your site. To me, the most important bit of information you shared over the last month was a few days ago when you said sitting in cash during choppy markets is a must.

    You are right, when the waters get rocky it’s best to just step aside. I’m not a huge fan of back testing on single pairs (often times people will “fit” their system to price) but if you look back at the charts, moves always come across a wide range of crosses. Therefore, it’s best to stay away when your gut tells you what your eyes are confirming, conditions are shit.

    Risk manage, develop a logical plan, and stick to your instincts. Look across the board, any pair, and the moves will come, it’s just at times markets really do become “untradeable.” When the murkiness clears, that’s when it is time to step in.

    Personally, I took a few good punches this month on the chin. But what it has taught me is to sit tight, and relax. The moves will come, just as they always have, but for now, it’s best to let price take its course.

    Let me know what you think and tell me if my thinking is flawed. I just look at charts from years ago and take solace in the fact that opportunities always come, and it’s best to not force the market. If you trade a good number of pairs, once the water settles, there will be times to take shots.

    Cheers guy

    • @frenchdna February 28, 2014 / 3:48 pm

      ” if you look back at the charts, moves always come across a wide range of crosses. Therefore, it’s best to stay away when your gut tells you what your eyes are confirming, conditions are shit.”

      Amen.

  9. David February 28, 2014 / 2:04 pm

    CHF looking real strong here aross the board, even against the EUR surprisingly. I’m longing USD/CHF, luv this trade medium-term.

    • Forex Kong February 28, 2014 / 2:36 pm

      I too am long USD/CHF….and ya JSkogs….a little patience, and I’m more or less break even…

      A shit month….but beats getting clobbered.

      • JSkogs February 28, 2014 / 2:47 pm

        Ya a lot of sideways action in Feb hey. I’m actually feeling a fair bit of green with my yen positions already but I’m a little offside on my USD positions…..still very recoverable. All in all I am happy as I’ve held all my gains from the first yen rally this year and the set up for next week looks ripe. Have a great weekend, Kong and all! March is going to rock!

  10. JSkogs February 28, 2014 / 2:11 pm

    Boom! Going for drinks. The selling has begun

  11. JSkogs February 28, 2014 / 3:18 pm

    From my bank that does our corporate lending. Kind of interesting given the average length of the business cycle aka the inventory cycle. Watch Q1 earnings be soft. Hopefully this is of use or of interest.

    On the surface fourth quarter GDP growth in Canada was very strong. The economy advanced by real 2.9%
    on an annual basis during the quarter following a 2.7% increase in the third quarter. For the year as a whole
    the economy expanded by 2%.
    However, the headline number is misleading. A significant portion of the growth came from a strong 18%
    increase in inventory accumulation during the quarter—a big surprise given that inventories advanced by a
    strong 12% in the third quarter. This does not bode well for the first quarter of 2014. With firms sitting on a
    mountain of inventories they will slow down production until they reduce the current elevated level of
    inventories to a more manageable level.
    Despite being able to spend, Canadian CEOs are not ready yet. Business investment fell by 1.3% (AR) during
    the quarter—and the Bank of Canada’s recent survey of investment attentions reveals a very cautious
    corporate Canada.
    But the best surprise came from the consumer. Consumer spending rose by 3.1% (AR) during the quarter. And
    what is impressive here is that as opposed to previous quarters, this increase did not come at the expanse of
    savings. The saving rate was relatively stable at 5%. What has been supporting consumer spending in the past
    few quarters was low inflation which worked to boost real income and thus real consumption.
    As for the future, the strong advance in inventories over the second half of 2013 almost guarantees that the
    headline number of the first quarter of 2014 will be relatively soft. The hope is that the modest improvement
    that we have seen in trade during the last quarter will continue into the new year—but the recent softening in
    US activity suggests at least a temporary pause.
    The practical implication of all the above is that while the market is no longer toying with the idea that the
    Bank of Canada will be cutting rates any time soon, investors might be scaling down expectations regarding
    the timing of the first tightening move as they face a relatively soft quarter.
    The relaxed environment regarding interest rates is one of the reasons that Canadian banks are able to surprise
    the market on the upside. Note that while credit is not rising strongly by any stretch of the imagination, it is
    not rising more slowly than last year. Accordingly, the main damage for the banks was really last year as credit
    activity softened notably.
    In this context, those who expect the widely watched debt-to-income ratio to start falling will be disappointed.
    This ratio is now rising by just over 1% (year over year)—notably slower than the 5% annual increase since
    during the past decade or so. But at this point it is difficult to see income rising faster than debt—mainly due
    to the fact that income growth is facing inflation of just over 1%, while debt inflation is close to 5% given the
    recent advance in house prices.

    • Forex Kong February 28, 2014 / 3:26 pm

      Great stuff JSkogs….very much appreciated.

  12. Farhan Nasir (@FaniNasir) March 1, 2014 / 2:49 am

    hey kong ,,
    next week is going to be real fun with all the news coming in , including rates cut , NFP , rumors surrounding EURO rate cut ,,
    AUD rate cuts ,, what do you think is gonna happen with all the confusion in the market ,, a bit confused about the AUD/USD trade ,, which way it will go in the short term ,, as we all know that its going down in the long run ,

  13. JSkogs March 1, 2014 / 1:18 pm

    I think we have our catalyst now. Putin – ‘Finally, the pesky olympics are done now I can get back to being a hard ass!”

    • Forex Kong March 1, 2014 / 2:12 pm

      Black Swan #1

      Love Putin myself. He’s not gonna let those boys in Washington get their hands on Ukraine if he can help it, and god forbid the IMF get’s their claws in there.

      A nice little showing of a couple thousands troops / planes etc should do nicely.

      What’s Obomba gonna do about it anyway? It sounds ridiculous that he’s even “issued a warning” – I really don’t think Putin cares.

      • JSkogs March 1, 2014 / 2:47 pm

        Oh totally. Putin does not give a rip. I admire his balls and the US needs a run once in awhile. He leaves a few areas open to criticism but when it comes to leading, people certainly know who is runnin s@#t.

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