My AUD Move Explained – No Big Thing

With the dollar “finally falling out of bed” I’ve scratched a couple trades for a 2% loss.

USD has given us more than enough chances to “ditch” and in all honest I hung in there with a couple smaller “much longer” than I should have, suggesting some days ago that “I’m not interested in catching a falling knife” not having much conviction in hanging around “long USD”.

And so it goes.

Otherwise, I’m highly suspect of the “sudden surge” in commodity related currencies hence initiating some “short AUD” ideas over the past 48 hours.

It’s not often you’ll “ever” see a currency trade sideways a full month, then drop “lower” and out of the range…..then come screaming back to highs, near or even above the range highs.

A full “rinsing” if you will – and unlikely a sustainable move.



As much as the short term action would have one thinking that “AUD is on fire” – it’s really only now bumped into well recognized areas of overhead resistance in a number of pairs.

Seeing something like this “scream 300 pips higher” in a matter of a few short days, generally has it retrace a large portion of the move, coupled with ideas from my previous posts ( suggesting that “short AUD” essentially works as a play on China as well ) I’ll have no trouble holding / adding to these positions as things develop.

15 Responses

  1. Anonymous March 6, 2014 / 10:05 am

    What do you think about metals here?

    • Forex Kong March 6, 2014 / 10:09 am

      I was seconds away from picking up a number of miners here today, but see that Gold has kinda “popped” into resistance.

      I think it makes sense to sit tight another day er two before jumping on em.

  2. David March 6, 2014 / 11:12 am

    Governor Stevens talking at 2:30pm today (Pacific Time); could help our move lower in AUD or at least provide some more opps to continue building the position. I’ll be starting my long GBP/AUD again if AUD goes up from this. Happy with my AUD/USD and AUD/JPY shorts for now.

    • Forex Kong March 6, 2014 / 11:27 am

      There is no question ( after this massive spike ) that Stevens will “talk down AUD” NO QUESTION AT ALL.

      So…..we shall see!

      • Franky March 6, 2014 / 4:40 pm

        Stevens speach not moving AUD, if they’re OK with current rate AUD will go up further.

    • Forex Kong March 6, 2014 / 11:40 am

      I can’t help but be suspicious of this AUD move in a larger context in that……take a look at AUD/JPY 4h chart for example…and this massive “run up” doesn’t even look like it’s part of the same chart!

      Not reading to far into things but….it just seems a little out of left field.

  3. Farhan Nasir (@FaniNasir) March 6, 2014 / 11:14 am

    one can here assume that the AUD is a little higher than where it was suppose to be ,, and RBA gov Steven in his speak might say this and then may be he ll talk it down like they did to a higher AUD and it will drop down ,,
    my thinking ,, what do you think Kong ??

  4. Anonymous March 6, 2014 / 5:33 pm

    Jeesh Gary pumping miners best to def wait now for sure. Ha

    • Forex Kong March 6, 2014 / 5:50 pm

      He’s pretty close here actually as……..

      A couple cents here or there – the trend has finally shifted in “favor” of buying.

      It’s certainly possible that these little stocks / companies fluxuate a bit longer down here but in all – I would agree that 6 months from now I think we’ll be pretty happy with entry “anywhere around here” in the next few days / weeks.

      I hope he’s making a buck er two with legit / credible advice as opposed to well…… know.

  5. schmederling March 6, 2014 / 5:52 pm

    Hey Kong….. I have AUD>USD daily on the cusp of a daily positive fire here….. the 8hr has played it’s course now….. even for a countertrend trade – I am still liking the Aussie here on this daily fire should it play out….

    I could be completely wrong here but just playing what’s in front of me in real-time….. USD/CAD has finally given me a break….. I have a daily Neg fire here as well – firing off on todays action…. so will hold this here to even pull out some profits with a little further luck!!! We will see how this plays out….

    USD>JPY still running a daily set-up here but going the wrong way for me currently…. have been short the pair…. I daily fire has be bailing for sure…. it’s close…..

    With things heating up again with Russia I was pretty sure Putin was not done playing chess….. it’s just the start…. posturing will continue on a more aggressive scale….

    Jobs – tomorrow should be weak driving things on the current path…. gold tested & closed $1350…. tomorrow could be very interesting….. most will be left chasing…. Asia should continue buying here as they have done for most of the week….

    Cheers Schmed

    • Forex Kong March 6, 2014 / 6:50 pm

      I tend to balance “both” the fundamentals / technicals to get an overall trade idea as…..where can AUD really go from here?

      And if jobs are “weak” then the current path is?? Straight for the moon man….as data has absolutely “zero” to do with “anything” as far as U.S equities are concerned.

      When the machines on Wall Street switch to “sell” things will turn…..I doubt it will be tomorrow.

      • Forex Kong March 6, 2014 / 6:54 pm

        I’m tired on “daily considerations” and am more or less just starting to position / scale in a broad stroke sense – short.

        Equities and risk may very well run to SP 2025’ish for all anyone knows, with fundamentals in the U.S so clearly out the window.

        At this point it’s not really even trading to me as much as it is just sit and watch the show a while longer.

      • schmederling March 6, 2014 / 7:12 pm

        Yup jobs weak stock rally for now – taper… taper … taper love it….. however at some point logic will kick in…. no jobs yet markets rally? really ok SMT selling here you can bet on it… hey maybe I am out to lunch – could very well be…

        Aussie – how knows…. right now in real-time it’s up…. daily fire if positive will finish the move….. wash & repeat…. until the next set-up…. that’s all I can do in this environment….. day by day…. trade by trade…. up is down… down is up…

        Russia has a ACE up it’s sleeve & I think it’s China…… Gold $1400 test tomorrow well within reach… but that’s just me…

        I hear you Kong….. not in disagreement just doing what I can to stay alive….

        • Forex Kong March 6, 2014 / 7:22 pm

          You and I both Schmed….staying alive and taking things one trade ( or two ) at a time.

  6. schmederling March 6, 2014 / 10:44 pm

    Something a foot in the DXY….. very compressed squeeze in the 5-30min….. I know these lower TF don’t mean much in the currency world so really don’t know how this is going to react here….. but if this was in stocks or PM’s I would be looking for a pretty good directional move ahead….. we will see how these fire off… here!!!

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