Second Quarter GDP – Reality Check Anyone?

The “advanced estimates” for U.S GDP ( gross domestic product ) are to be released on July 30th, and promise to bring with them a “flurry of market activity”, with traders, economists, analysts and speculators alike clambering to find an edge, and get positioned for the news.

I pose a simple question.

With first quarter GDP coming in with  a devastating contraction of  – 2.9% growth ( consider for a moment that is the worst quarterly GDP report in 5 years….those last 5 years with the Fed printing billions per month ) what on Earth could possibly have occurred in the past 3 months ( the second quarter of 2014 ) to not only make up for the massive loss, but to suggest anything close to “positive growth”?

You’d need to see a headline like ” Second Quarter Growth Sky Rockets! ” a whopping 4% to even consider the United States is “not” heading straight back into recession ( never left actually ).


What “magical changes” could possibly have taken place in the past 90 days to produce a second quarter GDP number that “doesn’t signify recession”?

Answer: None.

With “consumer spending” accounting for more than two-thirds of economic output, how can people making $7.25 per hour ( minimum wage ) or just under 1200.00 per month pre tax  be expected to buy anything other than beans / rice and “hopefully” keep a roof over their heads?

The false sense of wealth created by The Fed and its ponzi / racket in U.S Equities has done absolutely nothing to bolster further growth of the American economy, and soon…..yes soon……..chickens will be coming home to roost.

2nd Quarter GDP disappoints, and “maybe” it’s reality check time.




4 Responses

  1. Dress July 13, 2014 / 9:17 am

    > What “magical changes” could possibly have taken place in the past 90 days to produce a second quarter GDP number that “doesn’t
    > signify recession”?

    My answer: sunnier weather conditions. Kong, don’t you follow the press? 😉

    • Forex Kong July 13, 2014 / 10:23 am

      He he he….not sure if that might be sarcasm as….it’s “poor weather conditions” blamed for the terrible Q1.

      It obviously doesn’t matter “what I think” as the number will be as phony as an American Dollar bill anyway but it’s very difficult for me to imagine a country ( with no big changes in employment or minimum wage in these past 90 days ) is suddenly going to “blow the doors” off it.

      Even a print of a whopping 2.9% growth in the quarter STILL puts it at 0% 2 quarters in a row.

      That’s ugly when considering America is now nearly the “tightening cycle” after 6 years of money printing / QE.

      These numbers should be “hitting it out of the park” if all had went well with the “proposed plan” to stimulate the economy.

  2. David July 14, 2014 / 4:31 pm

    If the number’s low they can always blame sunnier weather instead of credit it for a good number. It was 104 degrees in the valley this weekend (SoCal). Either way, the market can only go up, up and away, Dow 20,000! lol

    • Forex Kong July 14, 2014 / 4:59 pm

      Hey you!

      That’s just the kind of thing you are “supposed to believe” at this point right?!

      He he he…..the number will be fudged regardless as “they won’t just roll over and die” that easily..

      At some point larger factors will come into play ( Im thinking sooner than later ) particularily in the bond market where….The Fed is just one of many players….with absolutely no control.

      Maybe Japanese bonds first, or further “bank issuses” in EU…..but as extended as things are now….it’s a hair trigger for those stepping closer and closer toward the exits.

      104?? Man! Hot!

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