Well that has my upside targets in both The Nikkei (15,499 ) as well SP 500 ( 1668 – 1678 ) more or less met so…….
Give or take another couple of points over the next day or so, this certainly creates an interesting scenario moving towards Jackson Hole – and the expected “chatter” out of The Fed.
It’s been my believe that “this indeed will be the time” where markets are given “some kind of clue” that perhaps the time has come to buckle up / take profits / begin taking precautions as to coming changes in monetary policy etc but…..I’ve obviously been disappointed by Yellen in the past.
Lining up the fundamentals as well technicals would have both USD as well as Equities take a turn lower, with JPY ( as well gold ) moving higher ( and obviously the commodity currencies falling off along side risk ) so…..the question obviously begs……
Will The Fed do it or not?
One has to keep in mind that, as much as a strong USD ( in at least one way ) creates an impression of a stronger economy, it also represents a tremendous burden on the American Governments debt load. For every single point that USD moves higher…..the amount of outstanding Government debt also moves higher – having to be repaid in USD.
It’s been The Fed’s plan since all of this began to “keep a cap on USD” ( well actually to drive it into the basement ) with the thought in mind of “exporting inflation” and keeping the “service of outstanding debt” at a bearable level.
One has to keep in mind that The American Government and The Fed NEED a weaker dollar in order to keep the ponzi going so…..it’s difficult to imagine USD “shooting for the moon” before at least another solid move lower, as changes to monetary policy ( and the supposed “end of QE” ) take root here in October.
Trading it is a nightmare as…….one stands to take a substantial hit getting caught leaning to hard in either direction – with these types of “risk events” best viewed from the sidelines.
As it stands I will continue to hold the few “short USD” irons currently in the fire, and let the chips fall where they may, with continued focus on JPY vs the commodity currencies setting up for the larger trade at hand “post Fed”.
Continued divergence across several currency pairs still see USD moving lower….before higher.