These things take time so…let’s just take a minute and re group.
The entire blog / financial community at large is pretty much sitting at a stand still, with a couple of “ridiculous” factors and circumstances in play. Get a load of this….March 15th is not only the DAY the debt ceiling “freeze” does exactly that – but ALSO the day the Fed is widely expected to raise interest rates?? Can you wrap your head around that? Can you?
The dichotomy here is unprecedented. I see the debt ceiling biz being completely and totally “blacked out” in the main stream media, as it could very likely lead to government shutdown, as well as some pretty “snappy headlines out there” when the world at large is again reminded….The United States is again 100% flat broke.
I would assume “the powers that be” will keep things lofty moving into the 15th, then regardless of an interest rate hike or not….you’d have to expect our “long-awaited sell off / correction” to start, which will likely take us well past May ( as I also feel that SELL IN MAY will be in effect this year ).
In a broad sense I’d be looking to put some protection in place…start raising cash for a much better time and place to “jump back in”.
There is very likely one more push higher later this year ( and it could very well be a whopper ) so maybe July/Aug would be a great time to grab that cash…..and put it back to use moving into the fall.
EUR longs looking good. NUGT pissing me off.
You nailed it Forex Kong! These rate hikes are providing the fuel for massive gold miner rallies. It gets a little ugly before the rate hike, but then massive gains are followed in NUGT and JNUG.
Rate hikes are inflationary, we are setting up another monster run. I also see the YEN soaring, while everyone scratches their heads saying this shouldn’t be happening……
Ya man…..very extended here and fair enough – I got started a little early with the NUGT trade.
USD key here…and thus far doing pretty much what it should be doing…short of doing it too slow!
Im buying JNUG pretty soon…this is going to be a nice cha ching moment!
Soooooo deep in the timing for a low so ya man!
You gonna do great!
Hey Kong might be a silly question, what do you think will happen to us dollar if they lift rates? Even though like you said and i agree us economy is again rat shit!!
Or are they just trying to mask the debt ceiling with talk of a rate rise, they most likely might not do?
I am torn i am looking at gold staying below 200ma and some technicals pointing to a correction down, but fuck i am a bit lost with all this uncertainty at them moment, so very very hesitant to pull the trigger on most of the market at moment…
Loved the read again mate.
You are wise to stand aside – especially if you are feeling a bit lost. Totally normal…and a big part of trading.
I am entertaining the idea that Fed tows the line and does a “token raise” (that will have little to no effect on the economy anyway) and “get’s it out of the way”. One would imagine USD to rise but…I expect the 15th zone to generate “sell in both USD and equities” – just as planned.
Gold shake out is one of the longest I’ve bothered counting now some 50 days?? Wow! Weak hands are most certainly washed out.
This may not all “turn on a dime” but….I’m still of the mindset both USD and Equities tumble – we get a nice little reset and likely a nice upward bump in Commods / Gold / Silver.
Mate you taking on anyone with memberships etc, will pay for sure.. Love this site
I’m a month out with not just membership…but “The Kongdicator” wrapped with a little bow! I’m planning on hooking up my trade terminal and literally streaming live trade signals. Programming done….just have a few more pieces to put together.
Again thnx for all the support man. I dig the day to day writing, but you guys need some tech shit too!
It’s comin. It’s comin.
Hey Tas…you’re in Australia ya?
Maybe you can help me out with ( one of many ) questions.
I get a pile of traffic for your side of the planet…but lately more specifically – Indonesia. Keywords “forex trading Australia”.
You think these guys are moreso interested in finding a broker in Australia – as it may be difficult to get set up there in Indo? As opposed to my ramblngs? I’m trying to discern if the traffic stats / visits are even legit humans. I’d be curious to hear your thoughts.
Yeah from down under.
Good question, im not too sure how hard it would be to set up a broker account in indo, but i do think people in Australia with the down turn in economy are very interested in learning about trading. It is pretty slow business wise in Australia and i think you could cash in on the service you have as its really great and no bullshit.
There is a lot of crap out there forex/trading wise all over the net, but i think maybe if you could offer your subscription and maybe a recommended broker you could have for australian/indo members might be a good combo.
Sorry couldnt answer more clearly regarding indonesia but i would think it would be quite difficult for them to set up accounts here in australia, its hard enough for us 🙂
It is a mine field out there, but to have someone who could offer no bs training and trading experience with a recommended broker, looks like a really strong targeted keyword group mate.
also Kong, are they on the site long, or is it on and off site quickly? still could be worth you doing something with them as its fucking hard to get traffic to a website 🙂
I know it seems a bit internet markety, but maybe add a section to your site of recommended brokers etc. It might not be something you want to do, but i know this was and still is a bit of a pain for me. I am with ic markets they are okay, but i need someone who trades us index, euro fx etc and ic markets don’t have that.
I would see that as a really valuable resource on this site, as there is already so much info here ….
I was looking into it, the Indonesians have plenty of gold reserves and i heard might be conspiracy theory half the worlds major players are storing gold there, might be a gold mine!! pardon the pun
Tas…we should pick up “off site” as….I was the the marketing director for one of the largest poker rooms on the planet, and currently represent some 7 mil annual Adwords spend in the education industry. I AM online marketing.
I’m headed for Google HQ in San Fran next weekend ( I’ll post a photo ) for a couple days chat with reps and upper level discussion on conversion and automation.
You’ve peaked my interest with respect to the “need for brokers” as I’ve not been remotely interested in going down that route as I too can’t stand the bullshit on the net. Forex is a black hole of bullshit marketing and disinformation.
I’ll hit your gmail.
no probs look forward to it… you have my email
Holy shit just did a double take on your reply…. Fuck me dead, that’s awesome!!! Holy shit, not everyday you get an invite to google HQ! Awesome….
Went the internet marketing route a few years ago, gave it a good run but hard to get consistent results, again another industry full of sharks. Mate they all sell you the dream, but offer very little substance. Awesome to see that some experts like yourself really do exist, i honestly thought it was just the guys selling the dream making money… Don’t get me wrong it’s effective, but a bit wrong i think, they are selling something they know is not attainable to these people… I Guess it is attainable you just have to replicate what they do.. But easier said than done i guess.
I would be a millionaire living on a yacht or driving a lambo…
Would still love that, got a few years left… haha
Anyway going on a bit, just email me when you are free Kong
I”ve been working with Google Adwords some 15 years now so for me…..it represents a real milestone.
Really looking forward to it. Throwing it on the list of “things I’ve done”.
hello kong another question from a newbie and sorry about the question is the same as the question that is going to happen or which is the forecast for the 15 according to jim rickards says that they are going to up then the reasoning and the psychology is on the rise in the dollar as at the end of another year in December but here predict that the dollar will fall to 15 so I am a little confudido.
best site for fundament analystic
Hey Blac Dog…where are you from?
Jim Rickards is very good. I have always enjoyed his analysis. Currently he of the exact same thinking as myself:
“””The strong dollar story can’t last, so it won’t. The Trump administration has clearly signaled that the day of the strong dollar is over. When you see a coordinated attack on the dollar from the White House, the Treasury and the Fed, you can bet the dollar will weaken. That means a higher dollar price for gold.
The dollar may get one last boost from a Fed rate hike in March, but after that, even the Fed will acknowledge that they got it wrong again and start another easing cycle with happy talk and forward guidance”””
He’s got pretty much the exact same view as myself…but remember – the timing is always the tricky part.
Great analysis, I’m going to look more into this JNUG ETF, seems like a good trading idea ahead of the 15th 🙂
If you’ve waited this long – bravo!!
Anywhere down here MUST represent a buying opportunity for those who’ve been so patient.
Yes but their is something silly ain’t sure about.
JNUG got split 1/10 and 1/5 past years. So ETF value as been divided by 50 right ?
Being at 5,70ish doesn’t it mean that to compare 2013/2014 value of 300$ we need to do 5,70*50 = (285$) ?
And in that regard and volume being real high JNUG isn’t really undervalue is it ?? I’m confused ?!
Anyway I just discovered your blog, this is great ! I like it much
First timer, good stuff, Kong! Hey I read that JNUG leaks around 7%/year at least… not sure why… and if derivatives collapse… can JNUG get destroyed too if that happens? I too got torched with this last takedown (shit!!!)… but am ready to jump back in very soon… GDXJ is not enough during the inevitable upswing for greedy me… but jeeze… JNUG can put the grey in my beard!! BTW: I am thinking silver will go up far more% than gold… so AG, EXK, CDE, HL, SLW are all on my big buy list… thoughts? Ever listen or read Clif High? Very interesting stuff… Thx again! JJ
Welcome JJ! Nice having you aboard.
I’m sure you’ll get a bigger bang fer yer buck with Silver you bet – all good picks, and man! Talk abouuuuut a wash out today!
There can’t be many longs left so….I can only assume we get a pretty nice lift on this bottoming and turn around. I’m not a silver / gold “trader” as such but these days they fit into my macro view on currencies so…I’ve taken a stab..and will continue to do so.
Hello Kong !
You didn’t reply to my question, you don’t know or what I said is stupid ?
I also come from Forex (10 years in it now) so I don’t understand ETF and split well.