forex market analysis

Profits Keep Coming – Trading Thru The Chop

Forex Kong Got something to say?

A very interesting day here ( so far this morning ) with commodity related currencies running out of steam “just” as equities pop. Hmmmmm……

Short The Canadian Dollar is looking fantastic here via long USD/CAD as well short CAD/JPY at these levels. with the long GBP/AUD ( suggested some days ago ) now several hundred pips in profit.

We’ve exited both long EUR/USD as well short USD/CHF this morning, after taking profits in long GBP/USD ( 200 pip gain there ) some days ago.

Otherwise…..patiently waiting for AUD as well to a certain extent NZD – to make their turns.

Please pull a weekly chart of AUD/USD and have a peak at the “candle” forming as we speak – as well the continued “downward sloping RSI”.

The chop has been tough on many, but continues to provide many profitable trades…..you’ve just got to be willing to do a little extra work….and be very, very patient.

Check us out at: Forex Trading With Kong – Getting Started.

Investment Ants – Do As Ants Do

Forex Kong Got something to say?

Indulge me for a moment as “I” – am like “you”.

Imagine yourself for moment – as an ant. One of many ants on the farm.

Living out your life, sandwiched between two panes of glass, sitting atop some desk somewhere in some kids bedroom or perhaps atop a desk at oh…..let’s say the Federal Reserve.

Years ago, your grandparents lived out their lives there as well. Innocently going about their business day-to-day, completely unaware of the immense curiosity “looming” outside the confines and safety of the farm.

“Hey Allan……you know….it’s been just over 5 years now staring at this damn ant farm of yours.”

“Have you ever wondered what would happen if you just…..you know – flipped it upside down”?

“Let’s do it! They’re ants for Petes sake! Let’s flip this thing upside down and see what happens!”

Low and behold. Magically…….everybody lands on their feet.

After a brief period of confusion “somehow” the ants just “accept it”… start to rebuild, and continue on their way. No glass broken…no “collective ball” near the exit at the top no. Just ants…completely unaware……doing what ants do.

The first time was a gamble sure….as The Fed had no idea “what might happen” but……these days?

Shit…….these days? They shake that thing up….flick paperclips at it, and will most certainly “once again” – turn things upside all-knowing……

We ants will just keep doing what ants do.

 

Turning Japanese – Trading The Weeks Ahead

Forex Kong 10 Comments

Currency wise….little can be said. The chart of USD/JPY says it all.

This is “not” a time to consider individual economies / monetary policy / economic data of any specific country as……it’s really not about that now.

USD_JPY_June_22_2014

USD_JPY_June_22_2014

With such an extended move in “risk” all the while rapidly eroding fundamentals “world wide”…..we are faced with a very simple trade / principal with far more “significant implications” than the simple economic “rattlings” of a given country on any given day of any week.

Short term traders ( looking for an easy buck ) will have been ( and will continue to be ) completely blown to bits here as……..there is no short term trade.

100 pips ( represently fluctuation of a single cent ) jump like popcorn here, as do extended periods of time where a given currency pair just “pulls you off side” then spends days hanging in no man’s land ( sound familiar? ).

Nothing is going anywhere until this “distribution and repositioning” has run it’s course.

The obvious question at hand………………when?

I continue to watch the “continued strength” in JPY ( regardless of the lack of movement across JPY pairs ) as well the “expected reversal in Nikkei” as leading indicators – market wide.

We can’t be far off now.

 

JPY_Futures_2014-06-14

JPY_Futures_2014-06-14

Scratching the surface here these days at the free blog. For more on specific trades / entries / real time trading come join us at www.forexkong.net

 

 

Swing High – On The Old Nikkei

Forex Kong 7 Comments

Most of you know that I follow Japan as a leading indicator right?

It’s not at all uncommon to pull prophecy from “Krystal Kong Balls” seeing what happens in Japan overnight spill into U.S equities the following morning.

Would I have told any day trader in U.E Equities that “today” would open lower? Absolutely.

Would I suggest that 15,000 in Nikkei and it’s clear rejection at that level will usher in the coming correction? Absolutely.

Will you take any interest in this, and possibly “learn something” or perhaps consider this in your trading / investing moving forward?

Absolutely not. I highly HIGHLY doubt, that the ramblings of some gorilla as to the peaks and valley’s in “some stock market” far,far away will have any impact on you and your trading what so ever.

Why?

Because you won’t open yourself to change. You “can’t believe” anything like this is relevant, let alone “possible” as you continue to view the world via CNBC and the hordes of “financial bloggers” regurgitating the same nonsense and “predictions” day after day.

I’m buying a bunch of EURO here today and am selling a whole bunch of USD too but I’m sure “that” makes no sense to you either right?

Here’s the symbol for The Nikkei should you crawl decide to crawl outside your hole: $nikk

 

 

 

Trading The Months Ahead – A Plan In Place

Forex Kong 4 Comments

I can feel it in my fingertips.

We’ve worked very hard to not only stay “reasonably safe” these past few weeks, but also make a couple winning trades as well. I can assure – that’s a lot more than one can say for the many who’ve likely been “torn to bits” during this difficult time.

It’s time to put together a medium term plan that “should” have us nail the next “two moves ( taking us out as far as early September ) – where we will then find ourselves in an even better position. I plan on nailing “the third move” then.

I’m going to use the SP 500 ( and it’s correlation to USD ) as a “risk barometer” first…then move to the specifics of which currency pairs we will use to execute the plan.

I’m very confident that SP 1950 ( or so ) and Dow 16,950 ( with Nikkei here at 15,000 ) will mark our “top”, and see one important “turn” for us to be very well aware of coming only a few short weeks ahead. You’ll want to be prepared, and you’ll want to be ready as….I plan on nailing this big time.

SP500_Future_Move_2014

SP500_Future_Move_2014

The chart and the arrows say it all, as there is really no point debating the “fundamental reasons”. It’s simple. We are headed lower for all the reasons sighted here over the past few months, but “even at that” these next few months will likely leave both bulls and bears scratching their heads looking for the answers. It will still appear “flat” until the larger “sustained move lower” comes in early Sept.

I believe the global macro fundamentals will “finally” match up with the technicals “after” we get this “final rinse” over with this summer. I believe the U.S is already back in ( in fact never left ) recession, and that whatever other “explination” is found in the media over the coming weeks – it really won’t make a difference. Blame it on E.U. Blame it on slowing China. Blame it on war in Ukraine. It doesn’t matter. What matters is trading it effectively.

$USD_Future_Move_2014

$USD_Future_Move_2014

Short and sweet here.

If you want to get a look at the trades we’re putting on in order to best take advantage over the coming weeks and months – please come join us at Forex Trading With Kong !

Forex Market Solved – Here's What's Next

Forex Kong 2 Comments

It’s unfortunate that we’ve been so patient these days, only to now find the odd “profitable trade” finding itself slightly “back in the red” – with the huge ramp up in both The Nikkei as well SP 500 ( our risk barometers ) on absolutely no news “if not” bad news.

So is forex.

The great news however is…..we’ve “still” not missed a thing! and for those who’ve been slightly “wary” of the current trade environment ( wonderful…as you well should be ) a number of trade opportunities are not only “very much in play” but perhaps even “better looking” than some days or even weeks ago.

Let’s take a quick recap.

Short AUD/JPY here “again” at 95.00 or ( as I often suggest ) several pips lower and allow the market “momentum” come to you.

Aud_JPY_June_03_2014

Aud_JPY_June_03_2014

Re short GBP/JPY here at 171.80 area is the exact same entry we took some days ago then banked 200 pips on it! Exact same thing – right here right now.

With over 900 pips banked in the last 30 days, this is setting up pretty sweet for a complete and total “re run” as markets continue to hang at all time highs.

We’ve got piles of trades in the works now, with the “near to medium term analysis” in the bag.

Come trade with us at www.forexkong.net and get the full run down, weekly reports, daily commentary and real time trade alerts.

 

Trade Like The Big Boys – Here's How

Forex Kong 7 Comments

Horrible data out of Japan last night has indeed “capped” the recent move higher, but more importantly has “put a stop to further easing” til at least October, if not til early 2015!

The weakened Yen has pushed inflation higher as import costs on food and energy continue to rise. This is absolutely fantastic news for us , as it removes “yet another Central Bank” ( if indeed the Fed has stepped back at all – which I really don’t believe they have ) and opens the window for some  “serious” medium term planning.

No BOJ printing til maybe even 2015? Fed looking to continue tapering? ECB more or less caught like a deer in the headlights? Hello! Contraction time is coming!

Trade wise, this could be a real break as we all know what it feels like “week after week” with markets hanging on every single word from Central Banks. More easing ? Less easing? Ping pong, ping-pong. The message is starting to come clear that the “easy money” is most certainly going to slow.

Strength in JPY has slowing been building since the beginning of the year, as the big boys quietly build for the entire first five months of 2014. Wow.

Yen_2014_Forex_Kong

Yen_2014_Forex_Kong

The market has been an absolute grind the first half of 2014 – and for very good reason. When major shifts in monetary policy loom in the “not so distant future” major market players start making “major market moves”. This takes time. A lot of time. So much time that you’d have to imagine a plan being put in place back in January and “only now” getting closer to a time to see it realized.

Has the “extended down period” in Gold been any different? Absolutely not. Big boys getting into position for the turn. Takes months. Many months, as they can’t move price “to fast” in that they essentially move prices “against themselves” with plans to buy in such quantity that when the time “finally comes” they are “so loaded” it rains money for the following year. This is how it’s done.

When I say patience is required. I don’t mean sitting on your ass waiting for something to happen. I mean working your ass off getting into position “before” something happens.

This is how it’s done. Come check us out at the Members Site…you might actually learn something.  www.forexkong.net

You Doubt Everything – So Tread Lightly

Forex Kong 3 Comments

You doubt everything right now.

Day to-day you question everything. The endless sea of “arrows pointing this way” or “arrows pointing that way”, the bullish argument or in turn, the bearish. Everyone’s got “a reason for this ” and a “reason for that” all with a million bullet points and charts to equally support “either view”.

You know nothing.

I know nothing, short of the fact that “when in question” – one should always tread lightly.

Are you treading lightly?

Predicting the future is a fool’s game, let alone putting one’s faith in “someone else’s prediction”…I mean seriously.

Ice skating as a kid…..we’d “at least” take a stick and give the lake “a couple of pokes” before moving out the nets. Even at that, once in while we’d hear that ice make a big “craaaack” and see a big fat “white line” materialize in an instant beneath our feet. Needless to say, we grabbed our shit and high tailed it back to shore in a hurry.

It’s frustrating I know, but it is what it is…..and if you consider “skating on thin ice” playing any part in your current trading plan well………it goes without saying….you’re gambling not trading.

You may enjoy the sensation of crisp cool air blowing ‘cross your face, or the freedom of “moving fast” over the smooth shiny surface but if you really want to play ….you’ve still got to lace up those skates, put on that long underwear, and on occasion – go hunting for that puck lost deep in the mounds of snow.

Obviously it’s not easy. But didn’t your dad ever tell you that “nothing worth while” is easy? I thought it was common knowledge.

You doubt everything today. You doubt yourself. You doubt the silly decisions you’ve made based on “what other people” have suggested, and you question if you’ve even got the stones to do this at all.

Tread lightly. Start making decisions for yourself, and don’t let this get the best of you.

A little scare once in a while is fine – but hypothermia is a whole different story.

 

 

Daily Forex Strategy – May 23, 2014

Forex Kong 4 Comments

” A snippet from the Members Site”.

We’ve stayed away from making any “big decisions” with regards to the U.S Dollar and for very good reason. Getting short the commodity currencies vs USD has been fine ( as these currencies have been falling against most ) but with respect to the EU related currencies – no trade has been “the best trade” over the past few days, as USD continues to “grind away” with little discernible direction.

As of tonight / this morning USD will have worked its way up to the 200 Day Moving Average ( on a daily time frame ) and looks poised to finally show us its “cruel intentions”.

The Japanese Yen is also “flirting” with its 200 Day as U.S equities continue to stretch / challenge the “near term highs” seen only days ago.

Talk about an inflection point.

As much as I understand that so many of you have “grown a custom” to seeing the various scenarios “outlined” in charts and “speculative commentary” across the various financial blogs – hunches are hunches and “speculation” has never really done much for my trading.

At this point it seems fairly obvious to me that the Japanese Yen has indeed fueled the majority of this “last leg up in risk” and NOT AS MUCH USD in that….we know the money printing in the U.S has provided dollars for a mirad of reasons / uses to support the current ponzi scheme – but no one can say for certain “where” the money has gone or “how” its been utilized by the Fed and major players.

As “ass backwards” as it may sound, it makes some sense to me that we see USD fall “along side” U.S Equities for the next leg down, as money flows back into JPY FIRST.

USD to fall, as commodity currencies fall “harder” with JPY the primary beneficary and the EU currencies also “rising” as risk comes off is scenario #1.  Nuts eh?

On the completely other end of the spectrum, can one imagine a scenario here where “risk on prevails” and we see USD rise along with Equities, as JPY gets pounded again with the EU related currencies dropping like stones? It seem’s far less likely to me but again…..you can see why “speculation” generally doesn’t do much for my trading.

Bottom line is – you can “think” about these things but “trading off them” is a fools game, and the “heart and soul” of the many bloggers and analysts out there searching for eyeballs in a sea of speculation. I continue to trade “what’s in front of me” and move in one direction “with conviction” until proven otherwise, with the worst case scenario being “I’m totally wrong” and just switch directions a trade later. No foul. No loss. Allowing markets to “do what they will do” then quietly following along.

This is no time for speculation. This is no time for “big bets”. All will be revealed in very short order, so we learn to exercise patience and continue to trade with caution. All the “arrows in the world” won’t change which direction things move tomorrow, as it’s pointless to even consider these “projections” as having any edge in todays “more than manipulated markets”.

Armchair analysts and financial bloggers can kindly take their “bags full of arrows” and shove them where the sun……( you know what  mean ) as it “all amounts to nothing” if you’re not trading it properly.

So today we wait.

Speculation is speculation. Trading is trading.

You want to be a speculator or a trader?

I’ve never really heard of anyone “making any money” contemplating the future, where as “trading the present” has worked out pretty well thus far.

More at www.forexkong.net

Gold, Bonds, Stocks – Everything Gets Pounded

Forex Kong Got something to say?

For most – this market makes absolutely no sense.

For forex traders we’ve been given a “tiny little gift” here as of yesterday with The Australian Dollar ( AUD ) finally taking out the last of the short-term bulls, rolling over “hard” – and rewarding our patience and fundamental approach.

This before “global appetite for risk” takes a total nose dive, all the while SP 500 “still” clinging to the highs. I’m up 652 pips in just the last few days alone…and the SP500 hasn’t even budged……..yet.

Gold and U.S Treasuries next to “take it on the chin” in an environment where many must be asking “how can all these things move lower at once”?? Where “is” the safety play if gold, bonds, stocks and “everything” head for the basement?

Cash. That’s where.

The “endless slosh” of Japanese Yen as well American Dollars used to “buy all this crap” is now finding its way “back into bank accounts” as safety is sought.

If you’ve no interest / knowledge of foreign exchange then I can fully understand the confusion but….consider something so basic, so rudimentary, so straight forward as this:

Stocks are purchased with cash, gold is purchased with cash, bonds are purchased with cash!

It’s the “cash” that dictates the value of these assets! Not the other way around!

When I have someone ask me “Kong – gold is going lower, what does that mean for the U.S Dollar?” or “Are bonds “sniffing out” a low in USD?

It’s the other way around!

As the largest, most liquid, most widely traded market on the planet it’s the “currency market” that dictates movement in all others “below” it, so when you see “risk related currencies” being sold, and “safe haven currencies” being bought – there it is.

It’s the largest piece of the puzzle and for the most part – the least understood.

You’ve got a fantastic opportunity here – to add something new to your toolbox. Watch how this unfolds and look to consider currency movement as a “major leading indicator” ( if not “the” leading indicator ) when trading in other markets / assets.

We’re in a wonderful position here with active trades well in profit before the fireworks really even get started. I invite “any and all” to have a poke around the Members Site and consider adding “forex” to the list of things you follow / track on a day to day basis.