trade strategies Archives - Page 11 of 40

Real Unemployment More Like – 18%

Forex KongJanuary 9, 2015 2 Comments

252K “new jobs” added “this month” ( primarily bus boys, servers and part-time workers ) with 294K new additions to the unemployment lines “this week”.

I marvel at the math…and the American vision that “things are improving”.

252k new jobs added this month…..with aprox 1.2 million “new additions” to the unemployment roll. Please…..help me understand how this can possibly be seen as anything other than “horrific”.

Seriously….someone with some “shred of sanity” I implore you….explain this to us.

252k “new” jobs paying close to ( if not under ) minimum wage, while 1.2 million people jump on the “unemployment benefits wagon” this month alone.

Now that’s what I call economic growth.

That’s what I call “recovery”.

Gag.Puke.Choke. Sputter.Split.

Let’s see how things look near days end as USD and the “currency world in general” just isn’t buying it.

Holding steady….and waiting for the “swing high” in USD.

Watching Oil, USD – Earnings To Suck

Forex KongJanuary 8, 2015 8 Comments

Watching oil here – now exhibiting some “bottoming characteristics”. Still very early ( as thus far only the 1 minute, 5 minute and 15 minute charts have reversed ) but…….

What do we know about “the price of oil” and the “value of USD”?

Oil is priced in U.S Dollars right? A low in the price of oil could very well mark the high in USD no?

Both Gold and Silver ( including the miners ) look to have found some support these past days, regardless of USD poking a touch higher.

Looking at oil related currencies such as The Canadian Dollar as well The Mexican Peso we can also see USD weakness.

A flood of money coming into commodities in general would clearly suggest USD topping out “medium term”.

The SP 500 has now retraced a full 50% of the recent plunge ( now at 2035 ) so even a touch higher at 2051 would provide for a low risk entry – short.

Earnings season is gonna “suck” as there is not a U.S based multi-national company on the planet that can “honestly” report that they’ve increased bottom line profits in the face of the rising dollar, let alone the number of energy related companies that just got their asses kicked by falling oil.

It’s impossible.

Singapore Survives – Global Growth Tanks

Forex KongJanuary 6, 2015 2 Comments

Readers / visitors from Singapore have now overtaken the total number of visitors to Forex Kong from all North American countries combined.

A recent study has found that the number of households with investable assets of US$1 million (S$1.26 million) or more rose 14 per cent to 188,000 last year. That means 17.1 per cent of households – or one in six – are millionaires ( this data may be a full year old ).

Wow.

That’s like sitting down for dinner at your local McDonald’s and knowing that there is “at least one millionaire” sitting at the 4 or 5 tables surrounding you – although I don’t imagine many of them are “actually sitting at McDonald’s”.

Some other interesting facts about Singapore:

Singapore is the fourth-largest foreign currency trading center in the world, according to the Bank for International Settlements.
Singapore is the fourth-strongest financial market in the world. The World Economic Forum praised the country for its high degree of financial stability, bank efficiency, and commercial access to capital.
Singapore could overtake Switzerland as the world’s largest offshore wealth hub by 2020, according to WealthInsight, a London-based research firm.
There are more than 500 players in the asset management industry in Singapore, with total assets under management of more than S$1.4 trillion.

Obviously something must be going right for these “astute investors” and I’m very pleased to see their numbers growing.

Perhaps a couple of them may have managed to “push through the my sarcasm and disdain” – and taken precaution to protect their profits / exit the markets some months ago – I dunno but……I’ll be hard pressed to hear of any “American Bulls” that have survived January thus far. Impossible.

I expect a “slight bounce” here, providing a last chance opportunity to re-evaluate your current holdings before the real fun begins. As per charts/banter going back some weeks. Global risk has clearly topped.

I’ve seen plenty of waterfalls in my days ( those of Costa Rica the finest ) but have visions of “this one” topping all.

A shout out to Singapore and good luck to all!

I Could Lose 10K – USD Shorts Start Today

Forex KongJanuary 2, 2015 22 Comments

One of the most entertaining parts about “financial blogging” truly lies within the “immediacy of it all” as….unlike “posting a recipe” (where people may choose to “give it a try or not”) here in the financial space – real money is at stake.

Traders on both sides of the fence get an opportunity to “compare as they dare” when fellows like myself ( and all you other guys with the balls to do so ) put it out there for all. You write it down…you make your move, and regardless of whether you fail or succeed – people really get a charge out of “watching you burn” – or “watching you earn”.

Oddly….or perhaps not so ( considering humanity in general ) I think the majority of people (as sick as it is ) rather “enjoy” watching others fail. Perhaps it makes then feel better about themselves – I can’t say for certain but…..I guess if I lived in a lean-to behind my grandmother’s trailer park and ate spam each day for breakfast, maybe I wouldn’t “mind so much” hearing that the guy eating lobster on a Caribbean beach took a hit or two.

I dunno….its small, it’s petty but for the most part – sounds pretty “human” to me.

In any case….by close today I will initiate the “first of three” planned trades ( as I always spread my total allocation to a given trade idea over 3 separate entries – over time ) short The U.S Dollar against a number of other currencies.

I assume the trade will pan out late January / early February ( or perhaps earlier ) with a total allocation / risk of 10K – spread over 3 separate entries over the coming days / weeks.

I have fully factored that the entire 10k could be lost….so for “lovers and haters alike” I invite you to follow along and comment ( uncensored ).

You can see what kind of “gorilla I can be” so……………….let’s see how “human” you can be.

Good luck to all.

Long Term Investors – The World Has Changed

Forex KongDecember 20, 2014 10 Comments

You don’t need to hear anymore from me on the subject, but I strongly encourage long-term investors and perhaps anyone over the age of 40 to pull up a chair, sit back in front of your beautiful hi-res monitor, get comfy and watch the following video.

Jim Rickards is an extremely intelligent and highly regarded professional in his field, with a unique ability to take very complicated and confusing elements of the global financial system, simplify them, and explain their implications/ramifications – making it very easy to understand.

From the coming fall of the Petro Dollar to China’s interest in buying gold, Mr. Rickards cuts through the bull and provides a very clear picture of what investors can expect in the years to come.

I strongly recommend you take the time to familiarize yourself with the information and principles outlined, as there is absolutely no question it will be of considerable value to you.

[youtube=http://youtu.be/KYW5OGWfqJc]

Chinese Stocks – Largest One Day Fall Since 2009

Forex KongDecember 9, 2014 Got something to say?

It’s all too easy for investors to get caught up in the hype of the current “western media spin”, going about their daily business with the general belief that everything is moving along nicely – as U.S stocks remain elevated.

But one has to remember ( and especially these days ) that we live in a “global economy” where the puzzle pieces are so interconnected “planet wide” that even the smallest ripple in “other markets” can have a sizeable effect on things closer to home.

Last night ( on the heels of recent moves by The People Bank of China to actually “tighten monetary policy ) The Shanghai index fell 5.4%, registering the largest one day fall since 2009.

Japan Enters Recession – Stocks At The Highs

Forex KongNovember 17, 2014 6 Comments

It sounds completely and totally ridiculous doesn’t it?

Japan has now “officially” entered recession – last night posting it’s second straight quarter of negative GDP growth, while Japanese stock hang near 5 year highs.

You must see the hypocracy in it all.

You understand that Japan’s QE program has been “triple that of The U.S Fed” over the past year, and just last week was increased “even further” with The BOJ now buying 100% of newly issued bonds. Not just “a few of the bonds issued” – but every single one.

This literally equates to Japan sitting in their basement with some fancy printers and xerox machines and “point-blank” printing / counterfeiting Yen all day “every day”to pay off their debts. No different “in any capacity” to a petty criminal organization doing the exact same thing ( counterfeiting and passing artificial money ) – although obviously….risking years in the slammer.

If it where you or I – we’d be tracked down, handcuffed and whisked away to a maximum security federal prison – never to see the light of day again. You can’t just “print fake money”!

Now get this…..Japan raised it’s sales tax from 5% to 8% back in April, and there have been plans in the works to “further raise the sales tax” to 10% early next year! ( Although in light of the current economic disaster they “might” put this on hold). Can you see where I’m going with this?

If that doesn’t amount to “slavery” I don’t know what does.

Imagine yourself heading for the grocery store tomorrow, and seeing a 23% increase in the price of goods ( as your currency has been so dramatically devalued ) then “on top of that” and additional 3 to 5% increase in the tax!

Where you suddenly offered a 25% increase in your salary? Had you recently planted a small grove of “money trees” in your back yard just to stay afloat?

Where are all the new parks / bridges / roads and infrastructure that you “assume” your tax dollars go to ? Where are all the benefits to citizens ( as I know for a fact the people of a country such as Canada “expect” when taxes rise )?

How can the common man “not” see this as essentially being enslaved? You go to work for the same old pay, with rapidly devaluing currency in your hand – in an environment where taxes are going up!

You don’t work for yourself – you work for the bank!

There is no possible way the average person ( in an economic climate of “slowing global growth” ) stands a fighting chance. You used to live in a house, now you and your family live in a one bedroom apartment.

You used to eat the occasional bit of chicken or steak – but it’s “all rice” now.

QE is a complete and total disaster for the people of Japan, and unfortunately the same rings true for those of The United States.

Japan has thrown “everything but the kitchen sink” into devaluing their currency ( as The U.S is also attempting to do ) and has now “brilliantly” entered recession.

Get ready for “QE 4, 5 and 6” coming soon to The U.S – and get ready to start buying rice in bulk.

Japanese Tsunami – Big Waves On The Horizon

Forex KongNovember 4, 2014 11 Comments

The idea that “the entire planet” is racing into The U.S Dollar as well U.S Equities, in the face of “waning global appetite for risk” is ridiculous. Investors don’t “seek shelter” in Twitter or Facebook – you can guarantee that.

The European stock markets (The London $FTSE as well German $DAX ) have already rolled over, putting in a solid series of lower lows and lower highs – with the Canadian $TSX following suit.

It’s obvious only a few days later, that the BOJ announcement of “even more QE” has done absolutely nothing in a “global sense” as it’s effects can only be seen via the currency pair USD/JPY and the continued “buoyancy” of U.S Stocks.

Even The Nikkei itself has given back a full – 530 points overnight – taking a nice “chunk” out of the massive spike of the two days prior.

The BOJ’s move is looking more like a “preemptive strike” as opposed to something spurring global investors to “jump back on the risk train” – and it only makes sense really.

If Japan sees a Tsunami of cheaply borrowed Yen rolling in from The Pacific, wouldn’t it make sense to get the currency as low as they possibly can “prior”? Buying themselves a little more time and space before the economy is crushed like sushi roll underfoot?

Back in the day ( before the roll out of this massive QE campaign ) Japan would openly intervene directly in currency markets with hopes of keeping The Yen at bay, and time and time again the market would “slam it right back in their face” reversing the entire move – usually within the same 24 hour period.

Perhaps this time will be no different as Japan’s QE initiative will look like a “tiny water pistol” compared to the Tsunami ( unwinding of The Carry Trade ) gathering speed in the distance.

Small trades will come and go. Winners and losers alike, but “the big trades” come in “big waves” – and that’s where the money is at.

Waiting On Yen – Waiting On USD – Waiting Waiting…

Forex KongOctober 30, 2014 15 Comments

As contrarian as it may sound – you all know I’m looking for an intermediate “top” in USD – leading to a much larger decline.

The immediate reaction ( obviously ) to the “official end to QE” resulted in a huge spike in USD, sending EUR/USD and GBP/USD lower as well USD/CHF higher.

Today’s “candle” in $DXY ( pin bar ) is now looking prime for reversal, as it will take very little price action tomorrow – to close under today’s low.

This would fall right in line with a bottoming in JPY, and our expectation of “risk aversion” to continue.

JPY_Futures_Forex_Kong

If you’ve had any doubts of my continued view of both JPY as well The Nikkei – I hope this “blatant example” can finally put them to rest.

The correlation of “JPY down = risk on” and “JPY up = risk off” could not be more obvious as The SP 500 has done “the exact opposite” over the past week and a half.

Exactly.

I suggested some time ago that the currency pair USD/JPY “is the market” as Yen is borrowed on the cheap , then converted to USD to buy stocks. This could not be more obvious in viewing the correlation over this last “massive V-shaped move” in both Yen as well The SP.

USD reversal “lower” ( any day now ) and JPY confirming reversal “higher” will put a stamp on the end of this upward correction – and the beginning of our next leg lower.

Global Appetite For Risk – SP 500 To Fall Hard

Forex KongOctober 21, 2014 Got something to say?

So the SP 500 ( and global appetite for risk in general ) has got a couple more points left, before she turns and makes the next “larger leg” lower, then even lower still. I hope you’re prepared for a couple of ugly months.

Here is what we are looking at for The SP 500 and “global appetite for risk” over the coming months:

SPX_Oct_21_Forex_Kong

I know you don’t want to hear it but…….unfortunately after the countless number of posts, the never-ending supply of supporting data, and finally the “exit of The Fed” – you’ve had ample warning. This market has no possible chance of holding up on its own, and its VERY LIKELY that come late January The Fed will make reference to “QE 5” or which ever “QE” we’re on to next.

Survival here is key, as there will be significant buying opportunities come February – pending that you’re not so deep underwater with current positions that perhaps you’ve got a little cash to deploy AT THE LOWS.

Let’s imagine that markets “scream back” after this correction leading into late January, and by April of next year you’re “almost break even”.

Lots of pain to endure in the meantime, let alone profits to be booked ( if you currently have any ).

This thing was built on pillars of sand – you knew that.

Now the waves are coming in.