trade strategy

Next Week's Market Mover – Guaranteed

Forex Kong Got something to say?

It’s now become clear me, what the “media” will sight as the “catalyst” next week – justifying the continued fall of U.S Equity prices.

Even with Putin’s suggestion to “delay” the referendum vote this weekend in Eastern Ukraine ( as Putin already know’s the people of Eastern Ukraine will vote to separate ), the people are moving “full steam ahead” with Sunday’s vote – right on track.

Once the people of Eastern Ukraine vote in favor of separating ( which undoubtedly they will ) this will then put tremendous pressure on Putin to then “step up and protect them”, as opposed to “quietly sitting on the sidelines” as he has thus far.

The dynamic of Eastern Ukraine voting to separate may actually “force” Putin to move forward into the area and “protect those citizens” who’ve will have then clearly pledged their allegiance to Mother Russia. Putin doesn’t want war, and has had absolutely “no intentions of invading Ukraine” even “suggesting” that they delay the vote.

The eager citizens of Eastern Ukraine ( passionate and enthusiastic to join Russia ) may inadvertently put their new leader in a precarious position.

On release of the news some time next week, you can bet your bottom dollar “Russia invades Ukraine” news plastered ‘cross American T.V screens coast to coast, where in reality Russians living in Eastern Ukraine will likely be the ones under attack by Washington’s “puppet army” from Kiev.

Leave the people of Eastern Ukraine alone “Obomba”, and watch these people make this decision for themselves.

Putin has absolutely “nothing” to do with it.

Stocks Up And USD Down – You Can't Have Both

Forex Kong 3 Comments

This is what I’ve been getting at for some time – with respect to the never-ending “money printing” and “phony elevation” of U.S stock prices.

You can’t have high stock prices and a weak currency forever, as “at some point” the scales will tip back, and the currency will rise as assets priced in USD are sold.

You can’t have your cake and eat it too….or at least – not forever.

The Fed “needs” a weak dollar, in order to satisfy a number of its sinister plans.

  • A weak dollar helps “dramatically” when considering the amount of debt the U.S has. Paying out with “freshly minted funny money” has been quite a strategy indeed.
  • A weak dollar helps promote exports and encourages investors abroad to “buy U.S.A” cuz – with respect to your their own currency, everything looks cheap cheap!
  • A weak dollar translating into low-interest rates allows big corporations to “borrow cheap” ( too bad they then just go an invest the money in other countries though eh?)
  • Low interest rates force seniors ( who can’t make a return on savings ) into higher risk assets like the stock market, where they can then be completely and totally fleeced by the Fed’s big bankster buddies.
  • A weak dollar translates into inflated stock prices which deceives the general public believing  that “everything is ok” as long as the stock market remains elevated.

And  on and on and on and on and on…….

As of today….we are FINALLY seeing the inverse correlation of “a stronger USD and weaker stocks” start to take shape..as it well should!

A stronger US Dollar is a complete and total disaster for the U.S economy as along with it comes rising interest rates –  at a time where the U.S is already “practically” in recession.

The Fed has printed America into a deep deep corner as the ship finally starts to turn, with a rising dollar and falling equity prices finally putting the “fundamental balances” back in place.

Eastern Ukraine To Separate – Not In U.S News!

Forex Kong 10 Comments

I can’t believe western news coverage of what’s happening in Ukraine. Outrageous.

Have you not heard the “real news”? Unreal.

The people of East Ukraine’s “Donetsk Region” are holding a referendum vote this coming weekend, with every likelihood of ” overwhelming support” to separate from Western Ukraine, and become another republic of Russia as did Crimea some weeks ago!

These people don’t want to be part of Washington’s circus side-show in Kiev! They don’t want to fall under the rule of the money hungry over lords from the West!

There is no “Russian army” killing the innocent people of Ukraine, no force, no “invasion”! The people of Eastern Ukraine are trying to “leave”! They want to separate! No war / guns needed!

The only group looking to take this out of the people’s hands ( who should have, and “will have” the right to decide for themselves ) is the U.S!

I can’t stress enough the significance of Ukraine and what this represents from a global perspective, and in a matter of days you’ll get to see it for yourself, as the people of Eastern Ukraine vote “whole heartedly” to leave Ukraine and join Mother Russia.

Once again O”bomb”a will be made a fool of ( as he well should be ) continually poking his nose where it most certainly doesn’t belong.

The people of East Ukraine can decide for themselves, and trust me, “not” with guns pointed to their heads.

They want to separate!

USD making the turn here exactly as expected. Markets to continue lower – as expected.

More real time trade chat and daily strategy at: www.forexkong.net

Can Yellen Save The Dollar? – Why Would She?

Forex Kong 3 Comments

I expect U.S Equities to roll over here and continue on their way down.

Perhaps some imagine that Yellen will have something to say this morning to “once again” pull markets back from the impending sell off – but I don’t.

If anything I would more so envision the “opposite” as….if there is anything Yellen “needs to say”  it’s something to save the U.S Dollar from falling much further.

This is very thin ice USD is walking on down here…very thin as the rest of the planet really won’t stand to see this thing ( and their billions of useless USD toilet paper stacked in reserve ) go down much further.

the opposite effect of this falling dollar has been “killing the EU Zone” with a rising EUR as well the U.K, New Zealand etc – all getting a little fed up with seeing their own currencies “flying higher” ( and killing export opportunities ) while the U.S devaluation continues.

And don’t kid yourself…the “QE” hasn’t changed in the slightest as it’s only a couple of numbers typed on a computer ( the tapering whatever ) with no “actual real world application”.

A couple of numbers on a couple of screens at the U.S Fed and Treasury Dept to keep the media spin going. That’s it .

Means nothing.

Perhaps a “tiny hint” that interest rates may rise sooner than later will do it….but then again The Fed “just told you” that won’t happen. Or was it the week before they said it “might”?

Or not? The Fed “loves” a lower dollar…it’s everyone else that doesn’t.

These people are literally “winging it” here day-to-day in a continued effort to rid you of your cash.

I’m tuning in to watch.

 

U.S Equities Top Call – The Top Is In

Forex Kong 5 Comments

Hey you only live once right, and in nailing the Nikkei a couple of weeks ago….we might as well just go for broke here. I’ve got absolutely nothing to lose anyway.

The Top Is In!

Peaking on Friday, and now continuing on its way lower U.S Equities will now “finally” roll on over.

With the momo names in tech “quietly leading the way” over the past few weeks, and the Bank Index $BKX flopping around, we’ve now seen what we might call ” final capitulation” in the U.S Dollar to top things off.

A strong U.S Dollar bounce on “repatriation” will only be fueled “more so” by the selling of equities “also priced in USD”.

The money has to go somewhere right? So when you sell something priced in U.S Dollars that money then goes back into your trade account / bank account and BOOM! USD cash position moves higher and higher.

The coming move in USD should put considerable pressure on commodity prices as “they too” shall fall.

And U.S Bonds? Would you seriously want to own a U.S Bond?

Not me.

We continue to frame trades with a “risk off mentality” including long USD positions as well “waiting in the wings” for  several long JPY positions as well.

The members area now in full swing at www.forexkong.net

 

Because You're Mine – I Walk The Line

Forex Kong 1 Comment

Another day……another “year stripped from your life” with respect to the amount of stress / tension / anxiety and general frustration you “harbor and absorb” as a trader. I imagine investors as well – feeling a bit of a pinch as “indecision” continues to rule supreme.

Monday’s are no time for decision-making anyway, and should just as quickly be stricken from your future trading plans. Don’t look to trade “jack shit” on Monday. Period.

1876. Fudge.

A bit of a mouthful but..for the number of times I’ve seen it appear as a significant level in SP 500 , I will now consider it for the name of my future pet, be it of this planet or another – human, canine or other.

This seriously can’t go on much longer as nothing moves in a straight line ( however flat ) forever.

The endless debate. Up or down – tiring to say the least.

My take? As wacky as it may be?

Time and price intersect when the “time” and “price” are right ( a topic for another day ).

I think we’ve got our price so…..now we’ve just got to let “time” do it’s thing – and all will be clear.

Check out “risk in general” as seen over the past 4 months via JPY / The Japanese Yen futures.

 

JPY_Trading_Range_Forex_Kong

JPY_Trading_Range_Forex_Kong

The Fed’s got it that “tightening” is now the path forward ( if you actually believe that ) so….this current talk of The European Central Bank “now” looking at QE?? As well the Bank of Japan looking at “further QE”??

Something doesn’t quite fit if you’ve any idea how this all fits together…

The Central Banks need “coordinated effort” to keep these balls in the air so…we’ve got to see this resolve shortly as the message is unclear.

Is the punchbowl getting refilled? Or is the party finally over?

I can assure you ……another couple of points in the SP is “no indication”.

Ugly “two day candle formations” across the board as clearly…both bulls and bears take another hit. “Time” can grind your mind and your account to pieces….and they’ve got all the time in the world. Stay safe. Make no big decisions, protect profits and at least “imagine” how you might consider making money in a bear market.

 

 

Conviction Market Call – Where To Next?

Forex Kong 3 Comments

Speculation as to “where markets are going next” is running rampid across the various forex, stock trading, news outlets and financial blogs these days, with a pretty equal split between both the bulls and the bears.

And for good reason as….It’s an absolute meat grinder out there.

This being said “caution” is likely the best suggestion anyone can make while markets continue to “sit on the fence” but you know…..you’ve really got to “go with something” as lack of conviction won’t really do much for you either.

Reducing position size or going to a cash position is never the wrong thing to do, so there’s always that….but again – we’re looking to “make some money here” so if it’s a bit of “hard work that’s required” well then?….We’re gonna do it!

I’m going to simplify and keep this short.

The largest QE program on the planet ( coming out of Japan )  is currently doing “nothing” to elevate Japanese stocks as the Nikkei “will” continue to fall here. This is significant in that…if the QE money isn’t doing it anymore ( as well consider the QE money in the U.S now evaporating monthly ) what on Earth would it take to continue pushing higher?

Nikkei_May_04_Forex_Kong

Nikkei_May_04_Forex_Kong

I believe that the “near term” wind has certainly come out of the sails, as U.S “momo names” have also taken their “first leg down”, with Twitter cut in half ( from 75.00 – 37.50 ) and Yelp soon to follow.

The analysis / theory is simple…..just follow the money.

Who’s printing the most money? Where’s that money going?

Do you seriously think the “world at large” is rushing to the “supposed safety” of U.S Bonds for anything more than a short-term trade?

I don’t….wait – I do…..no…..wait ( U.S Bonds are gonna top out here pronto ).

These things take time yes. It’s a grind yes, but there are many excellent trades setting up for those who are patient, and for those willing to do a little work.

I remain short the Australian Dollar ( risk currency ) as well am keeping a very watchful eye on all JPY pairs as these “will” move fast and hard with further weakness coming in Japanese stocks.

I continue to look for a stronger US Dollar on the “repatriation trade” and see us at a significant turning point here. Should USD fall lower it will only mean the trade has been “put off” a touch longer as much further weakness in USD will have some larger “ripple effects” with our friends across the pond.

I don’t believe the U.S can allow USD ( if they can really help it remains to be seen ) to fall much further without risking a serious, serious knock to whatever credibility it still has left.

Lots of great stuff on tap this week, so good luck everyone!

 

 

 

 

If It's "Sell" On Yellen – You'll Know For Sure

Forex Kong 4 Comments

If it’s “sell” on Yellen you’ll know for certain that the “machines that be” have most certainly flipped the switch from “buy” to “sell”.

I can assure you “anything” currently in play with respect to the big boys ( and I ) positioning for the “very near future” is already in full motion.

You have to appreciate how long it takes for Central Banks or other large institutional players to “put on” or “take off” positions SO LARGE, that it takes weeks “if not months” to slowly leg in as to not move price to quickly.

If you think “anyone” with an institutional influence is “sitting around waiting” for more clambering from The Fed this afternoon – you are sadly, sadly mistaken.

This move is well underway as seen via currency markets some weeks ago.

Yellen has absolutely “nothing” to do with what’s “already” going on.

Let retail take risk for a final “blip” higher ( as I would gladly welcome that ) as anything higher only represents better opportunity to get short.

We’re already in position. Check out the Members Area at: http://www.forexkong.net/getting-started-start-here/

Good luck to all, and watch out for that “bad weather”.

Markets On The Cusp – USD Shakeout

Forex Kong 9 Comments

We’re looking for a stronger dollar these days, as the reality of continued Fed tapering and a generally disappointing earnings season ( in my opinion ) begin to take their toll.

As we’ve discussed here in the past, the general effect of tightening the money supply “eventually” leads to higher lending rates/increased borrowing costs, pinching corporate earnings and pressuring stock valuations.

I think it’s fair to say we’ve most certainly seen the “mojo” taken out of the “momo” stocks in the tech sector already, as well the $BKX Bank Index ( which I follow as an additional “bellweather” for U.S Equity strength ) as it “continues” to on its path of “lower highs” and “lower lows”.

Via currencies I’ve been positioned “generally short” for several weeks now seeing AUD/JPY top out around 94.50 as well The New Zealand Dollar finally rolling over. CAD took its last breath here in just the past two days essentially “completing the trio” of risk related currencies to begin their journeys downward.

Pushing through the last remaining day or two of chop in USD, opens the flood gates “wide” to a plethora of excellent “medium term” trade opportunities long the safe havens, and short the commods.

My expectation is to see The Nikkei ( The Japanese Stock Index ) continue to lead markets “decidedly lower” ( and I’m talking like….Nikkei at 11,500 now at 14,500 type lower ) as the general lay of the land has obviously already shifted to a “risk off” / safety seeking environment.

For those interested in more specific and detailed “trade ideas”, regular “intermarket analysis” as well deeper learning / understanding of forex markets – please join us at www.forexkong.net as our trading community continues to grow.

Revenge Trade – QQQ Will Take You Lower

Forex Kong 6 Comments

You’ve heard of the revenge trade right?

After you’ve been knocked over the head with a baseball bat, and the market has run off with most of your account – you then decide “I’m gonna get it all back”!

Let’s say you go out and do something stupid…like…really stupid, totally stupid, “moronic” like you decide “right now” to go out and buy Tech /QQQ and “get long technology” as means to exact your revenge.

Can anyone say “doublé whammy”?

When acting on pure emotion, traders / investors don’t make good decisions. The revenge trade ( more often than not )  kicks you in both knees, spits in your left ear, and leaves you in broken heap – crumpled on the sidewalk. Nothing good will ever come of this, and the lesson comes hard.

Check you head. Kick back and re-evaluate. Go for a walk. Drink some beer.

Prepare for the “next leg down” in technology.