Pull up $dxy ( dollar index )
Drop to a 1 hour time frame…..and plot the 200 SMA.
Let USD retrace ( move higher ) to touch the 200.
Mark this level.
Place a “limit sell order” 50 pips below said level with a stop a full 100 pips “above”.
Ride this trade for 11 days.
Ask me more.
Thank me later.
Do the exact opposite long EUR/USD.
Ask me more.
Thank me later.
The ability to remain patient with your trading is arguably one of the most difficult skills to master when first getting started. You turn on your T.V, you hear the bullshit “hype”, you pull up your charts and you see the action , then something comes over you like a Jedi mind trick.
“Push the buy button Luke…..be apart of something…….change your life……..get rich…..buy…buy…buy”. As the Emperors spell works its magic on you.
The discipline needed to fight back, to remain “true to thyself”, to block out these evil messages and to remain patient is virtually impossible to exercise – short of many. many years out in the swamp practicing with Yoda.
Timing helps….but ultimately it’s patience that serves you best.
How can this be learned? ( Cuz believe me I can tell you…….it’s impossible to teach ) In a word……
Observation.
The market is full of opportunities each and every day…some bigger than others, but in all..there is never a need to “rush in”. You can still call yourself a trader. Just a trader that has learned to exercise patience.
“Errr…trading you will do then……strong is the force with you.” ( In Yoda voice of course ).
USD Shorts obviously “massive” trade as of this moment.
Stubborn as a mule…this kind of mindset can really get you in trouble.
If it wasn’t for the reasonable understanding of the “big picture” it would be very easy to just jump on the ‘long train” and passively assume the The U.S Dollar will continue to rise.
What’s also interesting to note is that no matter how much media hype, or how many days where risk is still “seemingly in the green” – world markets are still in the process of putting in a “lower high”.
After an entire month trading sideways The SP 500 as well DOW are still unable to make new highs, and are now “juuuuuuust on the edge” of tipping back to the dark side.
I hear rumors that Luke Skywalker slips over to the dark side in the new Star Wars film.
Sign of the times maybe. The timing looks right to me.
You know….it’s a tragedy really.
A sad, sad story of deceit.
Unfolding slowly at first, then ramping to climax when “least most expected”.
Think of all the talk in the news…..rates hike expectations, and the “anticipation” surrounding this glorious event when essentially the U.S Fed will “put a stamp” on the economic recovery – and do the right thing.
A rise in interest rates ( as detrimental as it would be to the already “anemic economy” ) would tell the rest of the world that “everything has gone according to plan”, “we’ve done what was needed, and now it’s time for a return to normalcy”. Not gonna happen.
Consider that today’s horrible U.S jobs report ( far lower job growth than forecast ) is just another reason for The Fed to hold off on normalizing rates. Imagine that now……BAD JOBS NUMBERS allow the Fed to just keep on with the only thing it knows how to do . The only thing it “can do” in order to stop the U.S from falling off the cliff into complete and total economic collapse. You got it. You’re getting better at this.
Just print more money.
I predict “at best” a small quarter point raise some time next year – (if that…and only to appease the masses for a short period of time) before the Fed cranks up the printing presses for QE4, QE5 – crushing the U.S Dollar and finally pushing The U.S to the brink.
Perhaps on the heels of some juicy news that Russia has now done this….or China has now done that when really….as I think its become quite clear over the past few years…it’s THE FED that has done this.
As American citizens sit and watch this sad drama unfold…………………..from the cheap seats of course.
I remain short risk as this has been the best trade of the entire year ( going back several weeks now ) and I will “double down” later this year on complete and total U.S Dollar destruction.
Thank you U.S Fed.
You make this sooooo easy.
Forex_Kong_FaceBook
As I follow Asian markets far closer than I do those of the Western Hemisphere – Look out!
Japan’s just opened and is already down – 520 or 3%….then Hang Seng as well down 3% already!
For those of you in U.S Equities……Look out below.
Gonna get uuuuugly here in weeks to come.
The wait has been brutal, and the USD pairs “wide-ranging behavior” has made it very difficult to pick a specific level, and feel “good” about nailing an entry.
Patience has been pushed to the limit, as the daily volatility continues to wipe out the small guys.
I dare say it again…..but we should see the waterfall commence here very , very soon.
With continued concentration on the JPY pairs vs AUD, NZD and CAD – what can be said?
These trades continue to produce, now I dunno….several hundreds of pips ( 1000’s cumulatively ) in the green.
If you’ve still got a couple pennies in your jeans…..remain short…add short risk as we are clearly moving lower ( and in my view even lower ).
Interestingly……you can’t have a low in Oil…….without a high / turn in USD ( as oil is priced in USD )
I remain short risk…..long JPY and short USD….and as suggested some weeks ago – Feel free to take a look at the profits come mid/late October.
Q: What did the midget say when I asked him for a dollar?
A: “Sorry bud……………………………………….I’m a little short”.
Feel free to pull the trigger anywhere in here today, as most currency pairs have done what was expected – providing for fantastic entries here “short USD” and short “risk in general”.
You’ll see a number of the other usual correlations play out ( as this is so straight forward and obvious ) with commodities moving higher as “the currency that they are priced in” slides lower, then lower…….and lower some more. And yes folks…..even gold and silver!
Again I marvel at the “hoards of financial bloglodytes” peddling this kind of information for money.
This is about as common knowledge as it gets.
Literally……”Introduction to economics 101″.
I marvel at the “trade clowns” looking to pin this downturn on China.
Spoiled little brats, crying to their mommies because the big kid down the street took their ball away.
Infantile. Small minded. Dumb.
Blaming the Chinese…..like the 100’s of thousands of poor farmers there in China, who’ve only recently moved into the larger cities and started small food carts or trinket shops are somehow “responsible” for the decline.
Do you really think any of them are big buyers/seller in the stock markets anyway? Like they’ve got all kind of “extra cash” lying around after barely having enough to eat?
Oh wait…..it’s the government. That’s right. The Chinese government ( with planning so advanced and so “long-term” it would make your head spin) ) has done this to you. Sure….talk about calling the kettle black. How stupid can you be? Naaa….not there in the U.S no, no , no…….the stock market and currency aren’t manipulated there no no…..not at all. Gag.Puke.Hernia.Stroke.
Fact of the matter is – China ( if anyone ) is just fine. It’s the “global economy” that is grinding to a halt while China continues on with its plan. Slowing evolving from an export economy ( selling things to you ) to its very own “consumer economy” ( manufacturing and selling things to its own people ).
You just don’t like it because you are afraid of it.
For what it’s worth……half the planet could drop off into the oceans overnight – and China would just keep on rolling.
The Chinese don’t need you.
You hate knowing that.
Sit down. Shut up.
The pre-market has already “done its thing” and you’ve no chance of survival.
There are no opportunities here today in equities as the Wall St boys have already made their move. ( This doesn’t happen to you when trading Forex as….the market trades 24 hours a day ).
As with yesterday’s plunge ( all pre-market ) or rather – ” inversely ” today the T.V suggests “Equities biggest one day gains” but…….you’ll have none of it.
It’s not for you.
“You” are for “them”.
Just sit down. Sit it out….and get ready for the next “larger leg lower”.
I’m 100% ( yes 100% cash ) and will spend the next few days at the local casino. Burning 100’s on Blackjack for fun.
I gamble all the time….
Just not with my trading.
If the sideways trading hasn’t been enough to drive you insane “yet” well……..you’re one the few. I’ve had nothing to trade, and in turn nothing to “say” until today.
It looks as though we are back on track for another short entry in risk, as both The SP 500 as well $USD are signalling – downside ahead. You don’t see it? How about 2095 as a good place to start?
I’m looking for today’s high in “both” as a level to look at “getting short” – again.
Keep in mind….the levels are the levels…but the turns often take time. Get a couple orders in “underneath the action” – and you’ll do just fine.
This works short SPY, short USD/JPY , as well most everything vs JPY ( yes again and again! ) with smaller orders long GBP/USD.
Picking currency pairs is getting trickier these days….so you’ve got to stick to some of the larger concepts ie…..Risk off = JPY UP.
Watch for this to fade here this afternoon..