I had hoped / assumed the USD strength would have subsided a little earlier in the week – but it appears that we have a daily “swing high” here as of today. I would expect that we get several days of continued USD weakness and the inverse of course – higher prices in equities.
If this goes as I imagine – this may very well be the last “blast” up ward in equities, and final “dip” in the USD before we’ve got an official top in place and an actual “change in trend” established. I also imagine this is where things are going to get tricky.
One could consider “getting long risk” here later today / possibly tomorrow morning – but with such headline risk in front of us ( ie……the ridiculous U.S Government’s fumbling of the sequestration) it is difficult to “assume” markets will just continue moving higher. News often plays a role in market dynamics and movement – and this could be considered a “wopper” as I have come to understand it. I don’t think the U.S general public and business community are going to be very happy if / when this program goes through – regardless of how ridiculous I think it is.
Unfortunately – I will be sitting on my hands for the most part, but will be more than ready to jump on a continued run up in “risk”, keeping in mind it will likely just be for a quick trade. My call on EUR/USD at 1.3170 is now in play – but I can’t say I’ll take the trade until I see more.