Obama is headed for Sweden on Tuesday, then off to the next G20 meeting in…………if you can believe it – RUSSIA!
The uphill battle in looking for global support in attacking Syria looks to be moving as suggested. Britain’s out, and as suggested The U.N Security Council shows no support for the move, as well I believe NATO ( please don’t quote me as I’ve read a million stories here this morning) has also squashed the idea.
This leaves Obama “literally” on his own, as actions against Syria under these conditions would now put “HIM” in breach and violation of International Law.
I’m trying my best to wrap my head around a scenario where this quack shoots “unauthorized missiles” at a country where “proof of wrong doing” is still just a “headline in U.S news” , and then plans to sit around a table with other world leaders at the G20 in Russia – just a few days later.
If this Bashar al – Assad guy is a nut bar, then we’d better create another category of “nut bars” for Obama.
You’d have to be out of your mind to do something like this – absolutely out of your mind.
If the age-old saying that “idle hands are the devils workshop” holds any truth, I imagine myself a “shoo in” for the lead role should anyone ever take it to the big screen. As a boy I usually managed to get my school work done quite quickly, spending the majority of my time “pestering the hell” out of anyone within reach.
I was bored.
I didn’t know I was bored. Only that, with little else filling my time I “always” seemed to be “reaching out” ( he he he…. ) looking for something else to occupy my mind. For the most part this usually just meant “getting into trouble”.
These days ( dare I say ) little has changed.
I don’t “do well” when I’ve got nothing to do, and considering that I’ve been more or less “out in the jungle” some 15 years now – a number of other factors have also come into play.
“Survival” is generally not something that most people consider day-to-day.
Safe n sound in the daily grind, most people “may” see the odd “touch n go situation” in their lives ( if any ), and that likely wouldn’t include hanging their asses and entire life’s worth/savings on the line DAILY – choosing to “trade forex” as a means to get by.
Some might say it’s crazy….but for me “anything less crazy” would likely have me “well down the path” with our “pointy tailed friend in the red suit”………….and we don’t want that.
I want to thank everyone who reads here, and that contributes here.
This blog has become a significant part of my daily life – a good part of my life.
It would be extremely irresponsible ( in my eyes ) for Obama and the U.S to actually “attack” Syria here.
We’ve now heard from the Brits who are “officially out” as well Germany will have no part in it. Russia has mobilized a couple of their own “battleships” in the area and have major MAJOR interests in Syria.
Russia is a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council. It has the power to veto Security Council resolutions against the Syrian regime and has done so repeatedly over the past two years. So, if the United States and its allies are relying on a U.N. mandate to greenlight a military strike, they may be waiting a long time.
Syria provides Russia with its only port in the Mediterranean so you can imagine how significant / important Syria is to Russia’s military / naval interests , as well what the port may represent economically. It’s only port!
Russia will not simply stand by and watch such a significant asset go – absolutely not.
So where does that leave Obama? What’s he gonna do? Lob a couple missles in there and “make a statement”?
Complete “middle ages” move.
You’d have to be pretty well prepared and have a mighty big plan to just “go off and decide to launch a couple missles” this time.
I still find it very, very hard to phathom this happening.
An attack on Syria for “proposed use of chemical weapons” is 100% completely ridiculous, and absolutely out of the question. Let alone the real world implications and ramifications of such actions considering big players like China, Russia and Iran. Let alone that the U.S currently can’t afford to pay its own credit card bill ( so let’s add a “war” to the list).
Curiosity has gotten the better of me this morning ( not to mention sitting here doing “zip” while temporarily “down on the canvas” short USD)
There will come a time in our “not so distant future” that I will shift my trades and longer term strategy to consider a strong USD. Not today though.
I ‘d originally posted / suggested that perhaps some time late Sept, that USD would finally find its near term low – and “do what currencies do” making a solid move in the opposite direction. The surge in USD buying over night will have taken out a large number of smaller players , and has also left me in the red on a couple of outstanding trades. Is this the start of the “real move” higher in USD? I don’t think so.
Yes we’ve seen a trend line breached, and yes the “likelihood of war” could certainly be the event that spurs true safe haven positioning ( of which USD still acts as the world’s reserve currency so…. ) – this still remains to be seen.
Does the “suddenly positive” data released this morning on U.S GDP as well unemployment claims have anything to do with it?
Would the fact that “gold has swung low on a monthly chart” ( a fairly significant dynamic when price has moved higher than last month’s high) provide an interesting point / price area to “shake the tree” a bit? Makes sense to me.
The key is not to make any big decisions until the picture is made clear. If a single day’s trading doesn’t go your way, drastically affecting your account balance – you’re trading far to large / leveraged.
We don’t do that around here.
I’ll let this “sell back off” and see where things sit later in the day / evening. My “hunch” is we’ve seen a lil surge/wiped a pile of small traders off the map, and that things will continue in the same direction.
With over 400 pips banked long JPY in only a few short hours – the short USD trade has still not made its move.
We’ve seen rejection at the downward sloping trend line as well a solid reversal on the daily chart, but in all many USD related pairs have shown very little “actual movement” considering these factors.
I hate sideways, and I mean I REALLY HATE SIDEWAYS but unfortunately accept it as a part of trading. You can time an entry to perfection ( if that’s your thing ) and STILL end up seeing the same level bounced around for days and days on end. This is a fundamental element of currency trading as big players often need days and days / weeks and weeks to slowly scale into positions. There is no such thing as “perfect entry” – lending credence to my “scaled entry” ( smaller orders over time ) as means to compensate.
USD/CAD has more or less traded in a range as small as 30 pips for days now! Does this mean an entry “three days prior” was in error? Of course not. It generally means that newbies have no freakin idea what they are doing – expecting some kind of “holy grail” email alert, then “all in”, then fortune and fame.
This will never happen in Forex.
The holy grail “IS” patience.
Further USD weakness expected here at Forex Kong in case you’ve grown frustrated, thrown in the towel, dumped your trades in fear, never took one in the first place. All things considered – you haven’t missed a thing.
Except in JPY. But of course……….you didn’t have the patience for that trade either.
In case anyone had any doubt about which currency would see strength during a flight from risk – The Japanese Yen was the clear winner overnight on fears of the U.S attacking Syria.
Kuroda and the Bank of Japan’s QE program (which is 3X as large as that of the U.S) has taken a serious hit here, as pairs such as AUD/JPY have more or less 100% completely retraced since the stimulus started back in 2012.
As I’ve mentioned here time and time again – JPY will always take a large portion of “safety flows” as the country of Japan holds most of its public debt domestically, providing little chance of default. When safety is sought – the Japanese Yen (JPY) makes sense for that reason alone.
I’d also suggested that the “easy money” being short JPY ( based in Kuroda’s QE plans set to continue) has already been made as we are now seeing what will likely happen should “global appetite for risk” come off. All the printing in the worlds can’t keep up with the flow of money “back into Yen” when risk is unwound.
What we “didn’t see” – is strength ( or further weakness for that matter ) in USD as today looks like “yet another” doji candle, and flat as a pancake.
I don’t believe USD is being considered a safe haven currency any longer, and am still of the mind-set that it will sell off.,,,regardless of further actions in a military sense.
I’ve entered several positions “long JPY” and continue to hold several positions “short USD”.
If there was ever a way for Central Banks to “rake in the dollars” it’s assisting / financing governments in going to war. Central Banks love war.
History shows us that “The Rothschild’s” of London where very much involved with financing “both sides” of the civil war in America, not to mention ( some dare say ) “creating” the war itself as means to divide this “prosperous” new economy.
I’m no historian but you can google it to your little heart’s content – I’m not making this stuff up.
What better way to “bring in the bacon” than finance a war don’t you think? You’ve got the people rallied behind you, you’ve got the “bad guys” up against a wall – and you’ve got all the military backing to really make a show! Only thing is……..you’re flat busted!!
How on Earth can one even phathom the costs to the U.S “above and beyond” the ridiculous “balloon of debt” currently hanging overhead? Oh and by the way “we forgot to mention” – we are now going to war.
Who’s chipping in the gas money?
This has gone past ridiculous, as the “ultimate excuse” for continued printing has now reared it’s ugly head.
The Fed will not start tapering its bond purchasing program in September, just as they will likely find reason to continue or even “expand the program” come December. You’ve spent a considerable amount of time contemplating this as suggested by your local T.V / media / CNBC / clowns but now please….just put it to rest. There is not a single shred of data that could support the Fed stepping away from markets as soon as Sept or Dec for that matter.
Take today for example where the Fed has made 1.5 Billion dollars in outright treasury coupon purchases, and the freakin market can barely even keeps its head above water. 1.5 BILLION DOLLARS JUST TODAY!
Here’s the Fed’s “purchase schedule” link – you can see for yourself.
If Ben had called in sick this morning, and was unable to make it down to the exchange with his suitcase of 1.5 BILLION DOLLARS in bond purchase confetti where would the market be today?
There is NO ONE ELSE BUYING!
What remains to be seen is what investors reaction will be “now” when the Fed announces “No Tapering”.
Personally – I’d “like” to see the true reflection of such continued actions and would look for markets to interpret this as “things are still 100% totally screwed” and sell like mad but I’m likely dreaming.
Anyway you cut it – it’s bad for USD. It’s bad for USD short term….and it’s very bad for USD long term. Medium term?? – You’ll really need to be careful there.