Month: September 2013

Forex Trading – Tuesday Morning Update

Forex Kong 4 Comments

I’ve “scooped” 3% overnight in a number of “long USD” trades, the largest of which being NZD/USD ( you were alerted to on Sunday night, then again via twitter last night ) as well long USD/CAD and short GBP/USD.

These pairs are still very much in play , only that these days when I see money on the table – I just flat-out take it. The short-term tech will kick in here soon, as we again can likely look to Thursday as the market pivot.

The Yen (JPY) has shown considerable strength in the past 24 hours, as every JPY related pair has seen reasonable moves ( a couple 100 pips even ) over the past few days. I still hold a couple trades ( still in the weeds ) long JPY.

The Insanity Trade is still holding as well, and in case any of you looked into following this pair (EUR/AUD) over the past week now – I hope you’ve seen “the light”. Dipping as much as 150 pips in a matter of hours, then back again etc….still hanging in profit but a wild ride if you’ve leveraged / are trading too large. Insanity Trade 2 has still yet to get picked up.

Otherwise…..another hum drum Tuesday on deck here today, as SP/ U.S Equities have certainly “come off” but nothing to write home about.

Gold continues to grind anyone silly enough to think they can actually “target an entry price” on an asset worth 1300.00. 30 dollar moves are nothing, and pointless to debate.

Good luck out there.

 

Held Hostage By Markets – Take The Pain!

Forex Kong 9 Comments

This thing must be grinding your nerves to mush.

I’ve learned over as many years that “sideways” is a market dynamic that you “must” learn to deal with in order to survive. As the days grind on it gets easier and easier to just say “screw this!” and make some kind of a decision based in pure “emotion”.

That’s the idea. This type of market activity grinds equally on both sides, as bulls see “paper profits” diminishing, while bears can’t get enough traction to make a trade pay at all. The idea is to extract as much money from each sides as possible.

And there it is.

These days, it seems that “every day” brings reason for markets to just “sit there”. Waiting for the U.S to “go to war or not”, waiting for the U.S to “taper or not”, waiting for the U.S to “default/shutdown/ raise the debt ceiling” or not. See any pattern here?

Can these jack asses throw anything else on the pile while they’re at it?

You’ve got to just push through and not allow yourself to give in to it. That’s exactly what you’re supposed to do right?  Bulls continue to pile in on easing, bears pile in on “default speculation”.

Then “whoooooosh”! – both get their clocks cleaned.

I feel for you if you’re feeling the heat here. Markets are grinding nerves to pieces ( and I’ll say myself included). We need a move here, and you’ll want to be on the right side of it. Can the risk vs reward actually support further upside in “risk on”?

Emerging Markets – Effect Of QE

Forex Kong 2 Comments

In recent years, central banks of developed markets have used quantitative easing (QE) in an attempt to stimulate their economies, increase bank lending, and encourage spending.

To date, however, the greater availability of credit in developed markets has not been offset by demand – resulting in an abundance of excess liquidity. Much of this surplus capital has flowed into emerging markets, which has had adverse effects on their currency exchange rates, inflation levels, export competitiveness, and more.

As historical low rates gave investors cheap money and forced them to find higher rates overseas (and with the continued mess in Europe) – emerging markets were the natural place to go.

In general, financial firms that are now free to lend rush their investments into the emerging economies. This is because there is a higher rate of return on investments in emerging countries compared to highly developed countries like the United States. So, instead of a U.S. financial firm pouring money into U.S. investments, the firm piles  into India ( or Mexico ) since the investment will make more of an impact and give them a greater return.

The symbol “EEM” can be used as a broad look at emerging markets.

EEM_Emerging_Markets_Sept_2013

EEM_Emerging_Markets_Sept_2013

The effect of Fed tapering could prove disastrous for emerging markets as the flood of easy money dries up – and dollars are brought back home.

Putting this in perspective I hope gives you a better understanding of how much “rides” on the current global “injection of stimulus” as all these things are so interconnected.

I would have expected EEM to “blast for the moon” on the Feds’ shocker, but apparently not. This in itself is also suggestive of the fact that the “big boys” might just be pulling back a bit here – which would also equate to USD strength.

I like what I’m seeing as this trade appears to be taking shape, although I’m ready at a moments notice to dump and run. USD has swung low as equities have “swung high” so…..another head fake / whipsaw? Just as likely with the current conditions so……trade safe and be ready for anything.

Trade Ideas For NZD/USD – Overbought

Forex Kong 2 Comments

I’ve got my eye on the “Kiwi” regardless of which pair, for the pure reason that it looks severely overbought.

Overbought –  A situation in which the demand for a certain asset unjustifiably pushes the price of an underlying asset to levels that do not support the fundamentals.

Now, The Bank of New Zealand has recently made mention of a possible “hike” in interest rates (which has most certainly been the tail wind behind the latest advance) but the Kiwi still represents a “risk related currency” and is subject to large moves when appetite for risk wanes.

Have a look at the daily chart and see how “84.00” looks like a solid area of resistance.

NZD_USD_SEPT_2013_Forex_Kong

NZD_USD_SEPT_2013_Forex_Kong

Now, “86.00” doesn’t look completely out of the question, but with the usual “staggered mutli-order” approach, I’m seeing the risk vs reward looking pretty good for a short up here.

Another full day’s downward movement will likely trip the Kongdicator ( as I am free wheeling here on this one so far ) so we’ll keep our eyes peeled for that.

Kong….gone.

 

Stock Market Crash! – Monday Get Out!

Forex Kong 20 Comments

He he he……gotcha.

Let’s get something straight here. When I make the suggestion of “a top” or (as I have been since April) a “topping process” – I don’t mean the world is gonna come crashing down around you like in some bullshit movie out of Hollywood.

The financial “powers that be” already got their wake up call in 2008 with Lehman Bros etc and it’s pretty much a given that we won’t be seeing something like that happening again anytime soon.

There is no “doomsday prophecy” here, no “go buy guns n ammo” cuz they’re coming for your gold, no “end of the world scenario’s” no. This stuff rolls out in “real time” and navigating the peaks n valley’s these days just gets tougher and tougher, as the situation gets more desperate.

We know the “coordinated Central Bank effort” is flooding the planet with cash, and we know the tensions between East and West are intensifying. We know the world’s largest consumer economy is still struggling to get back on its feet ( if ever ) and we also know that the large majority of people involved with investment / finance are hell-bent on making it so.

Global appetite for risk comes “on” and it comes “off”. Simple as that. Identifying these times can be extremely profitable for those who choose to fight it out in the trenches.

If you actually think you can weather “buy and hold” when a mere 10% correction in U.S equities has the potential to wipe your account to zero then fine! Do it! Buy all you can tomorrow – and disregard concern for the “global appetite for risk”.

I call it like I see it, and I see a lot.

I’m not particularly “optimistic” about the next few years but that doesn’t mean I think the world is gonna end.

You choose to trade, or you choose to invest. DON’T CONFUSE THE TWO.

Sorry about the misleading headline although – seriously………it’s all I can do these days not to “go completely mad” writing about this day after day. It “may” happen again but at least just this once….give ol Kong a break. (I bet you read the damn thing as fast you could get it open).

Forgive me.

We’ve ok here………………………..at least for Monday.

written by F Kong

Watch The Wilshire 5000 – I Do

Forex Kong Got something to say?

The Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index, or more simply the Wilshire 5000, is a market-capitalization-weighted index of the market value of all stocks actively traded in the United States.

As of October 31, 2012 the index contained 3,692 components. The index is intended to measure the performance of most publicly traded companies headquartered in the United States, with readily available price data.

I keep the Wilshire on my radar, as a better means to “truly track” the performance / direction of U.S stocks, in that the index includes nearly ALL PUBLICLY TRADED COMPANIES.

I’ve borrowed the chart below ( and will certainly give credit where credit is due, should anyone object) to illustrate just how “extended” U.S equities are right now, and to further the case for inevitable correction.

This is a “monthly chart” so the implications / divergence in volume and price ( look at the volume bars below ) is of particular note as this “never-ending rally” has continued for months and months, on less and less volume.

Wilshire_5000

Wilshire_5000

As well the angle of the “RSI” up top ( gradually lower, then lower over time ). The distance price has stretched above the 200 Day Moving Average ( red line on chart ) as well the MACD (below) literally “off in space”.

The entire “structure” starts to look eerily like the tops in both 2000 ( Tech crash ) as well 2008 ( Credit crash ).

A close friend of mine and another mutual friend are considering buying Facebook stock this Wednesday, with plans on seeing it hit 100. As market particpants primarily act on emotion – this in itself may lend further creedance to the fact we are indeed – “near the top”.

Buy now?

It's A Currency War So – War On!

Forex Kong 5 Comments

It’s easy to get caught up in the day-to-day “up’s n downs” of the markets.

A couple of days go by, you make a buck , then you lose a couple. Then slowly but surely the intraday / micro stuff “becomes your world”. Obsessed with the tiny “zigs and zags” that make up your charts, confounded by the “barage” of daily news – you’ve lost touch. You’ve lost your focus.

Have you forgotten?

Have you forgotten that we are smack dab in the middle of one of the most vicious currency wars of the past few decades – let alone your entire lifetime??

And you wonder why thing aren’t going so well.

A number of prior posts come to mind, in particular: https://forexkong.com/2013/01/31/2013-you-will-never-trade-it/ but that’s beside the point. The point is…..you’ve got to get a handle on you environment before you go running off into the sunset!

The zigs and zags will always be there. It’s the environment that changes.

Do you get all excited about going fishing in the rain?

That being said Japan has no idea what to do with respect to the Fed’s move yesterday, as markets are clearly stunned. My printing press , your printing press etc.. It’s “war on” people – no question about it.

In general we are seeing “all fiat currencies” falling, and it’s only a matter of “which is falling more” when considering your trade plan.

There is no “strength”.

Insanity Trade 2 – Updates And Add Ons

Forex Kong 7 Comments

In case you’ve forgotten about it. The “insanity trade” is still very much alive. So much so in fact,  that I want to (not only bring you up to speed) – but also introduce……..Insanity Trade 2!

Not much different from the original “insanity trade” we’re talking about EUR/NZD this time.

Ok. Wrapping your head around the “reasoning” or the “fundamentals” behind these trades is a stretch for even the most experienced of traders. Pitting the Euro against AUD and now NZD?  What the hell? Why? How? What could you possibly be thinking about “fundamentally” to consider such a bizarre trade / pairing? Now?

I’m not going to tell you.

These are the Insanity Trades remember! You need to be insane to take them, and possibly insane to understand them!

I am placing an order long EUR/NZD a full 100 pips above the current price action – my order to buy is at : 1.6260

The current insanity trade is currently sitting EXACTLY BREAK EVEN at 1.43 ( what? you think I sold / freaked on the Fed? Hell no! ) – It’s an insanity trade.

That’s it. Do not try this at home.

Kong….in”song”?

The Revenge Trade – Don't Do It

Forex Kong 20 Comments

A common psychological reaction for traders ( when presented with a situation such as we’ve seen today ) is to jump in / make assumptions / over trade / freak out / spazz with the notion that:

  • I’ve missed something so huge and now I MUST find a way to be a part of it.
  • I’ve lost so much money on the wrong side of this move that I MUST place another trade in the opposite direction.
  • I’ve now got this nailed down to an “absolute science “and will now look to double / triple my exposure as I’m sure to be a millionaire come sunrise.

Wrong. Wrong. Wrong.

Patience young grasshoppa.

  • Yes you’ve missed something huge ( I did ). No big deal. These things happen many times throughout a year, and if you’ve survived at all – just be thankful.
  • If you’ve lost so much money that you are compelled to place a “revenge trade” ( or even considering trading based essentially in your “need for revenge” – I COMMAND YOU TO STOP! – YOU ARE NOT TRADING……..YOU ARE GAMBLING.
  • You made out really well and should be very pleased with yourself. Now take your profits ……go buy yourself ( and your family and friends ) something nice, and DON’T EXPECT THE SAME THING TO HAPPEN AGAIN TOMMOROW.

The psychology of trading will be the one element you struggle with the most, as most of you will likely blow your accounts long before you ever really address it – or have the opportunity to work on it at all.

You need to stay in the game…………………………… long enough to “understand the game”.

QE5 – Rain On My Parade

Forex Kong 19 Comments

It’s wet here today. Really wet.

Like there’s a two foot deep lake out front of my place…with cars stalled in it “type” wet.  Hurricane “Ingrid” blew thru early in the week, and a smaller tropical storm has now developed in her wake. As with the weather here in the Yucatan “so it goes” in financial markets as well. Having missed one of the largest one day moves in USD in the history of my career “sitting out” – I can honestly say ” I’ve had better days”.

So there it is. Rain on my parade.

Bernanke “toes the line” and doesn’t even blink with the smallest suggestion of tapering. Zip. Zero. Nada.

The U.S Dollar absolutely crushed with one of the largest one day moves lower I’ve ever seen ( all be it sitting here looking to smash my computer screens to bits). Epic dollar destruction. Continued printing. Ponzi scheme “on”.

You’d expect that anyone in there right mind would perceive this as “very , very , very bad news” as obviously, if the U.S cannot afford even the “tiniest of tapering” you’ve gotta know the trouble runs far deeper than most imagine. This is bad news. It’s bad, bad , bad news – but what’s a guy to do?

You’re supposed to go back to work , mind your own business, but stay tuned to that T.V for further updates on the destruction of your economy and currency.

If I was “modestly bearish” some time ago, I’m now OUTRIGHT growling now, as this has now passed “all levels of reason”.

Trade ideas to follow but as it stands….we’ll wait to see reaction to this over the next “day or two” and stay open to the idea of a solid dollar bounce.