A fantastic question from another valued reader.
“Some time back you spoke of what readers wished to hear. So I thought I’d question a true professional. As a forex novice, my query pertains to gold, silver, and its shares.Where do you see the DXY in the intermediary term (3-6 months)? I know your trades often only last hours, but what is your “change” or expectation for the dollar going forward?”
We’ve seen the decoupling of the traditional relationship / correlation of “lower dollar = higher
gold” right? Or have we?
Pull a 25 year chart of gold and see that this “massive correction” isn’t really that massive at all.
Compared to any other asset / chart you see on the 25 year for example….this is ( Elliot boys
chime in please ) some kind of “wave 4” maybe…..but not a change in trend!
I have no change in expectation for the dollar ( as I expect it to essentially go to zero ) but will
be wary / watchful for correction “just like we see in all asset classes” when the time comes.
Knowing full well “nothing moves in a straight line for long” sure…..the buck will “buck us bears”
at some point…..as the correction in gold has equally “bucked the bulls”. This shit happens every
day, in one asset or another…..one chart or another.
What most people fail to understand is that “every single pivot / zig and zag” doesn’t play out/correlate/ “on a dime”. An asset like gold ( with such a high value ) has been “on it’s own correction” based on the value / time / zigs / zags etc, while the US Dollar struggles within it’s own set of parameters.
There are points where “stars align”, but in general “intermarket analysis” is extremely difficult for a novice to effectively “time”.
If you ask me what I think. I think the U.S Dollar is going to zero and I think that gold is going to the moon. If you ask me “how long is that gonna take”?
I’ll tell you you’re trading to large, reduce your position size, don’t expect this to be easy and “don’t” pull your life savings with any expectations that you’ll “be even close” in timing it.
Near term – I’m looking for this last leg lower in the dollar – then an obvious bounce.